Iceland and Oxford Studies Suggest Millions are Asymptomatic and Already Immune, Cannot Spread

munkle

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Dec 18, 2012
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Upshot: Iceland: half of people who have show no symptoms or already built immunity. Have never had symptoms or thought it was a cold. Mass gatherings , schools, still closed but in Iceland no total lockdown. Iceland doing the science, randomly testing people whether they have symptoms or not. In US, only people with symptoms being tested, giving artificially high mortality rate.


A model predicting the progression of the novel coronavirus pandemic produced by researchers at Imperial College London set off alarms across the world and was a major factor in several governments' decisions to lock things down. But a new model from Oxford University is challenging its accuracy, the Financial Times reports.

The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.

The head of the study, professor Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford theoretical epidemiologist, said she still supports the U.K.'s decision to shut down the country to suppress the virus even if her research winds up being proven correct. But she also doesn't appear to be a big fan of the work done by the Imperial College team. "I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model," she said.

If her work is accurate, that would likely mean a large swath of the population has built up resistance to the virus.



Unlike other countries, where people are only tested if they exhibit symptons of coronavirus or have come into contact with known spreaders, the country is testing thousands of people from the general population who don’t exhibit any symptoms of the virus whatsoever – helping to reveal information about the nature of the pathogen and its symptoms.
 
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Now Fauci says 60,000 dead? That's a bad flu season
 

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