How were the “experts” so wrong about 2024 election and will it carry to 2028?

[ColonelAngus]

Is it because “Our reverence for the truth has become a distraction”?

If it is Newsom vs Vance in 2028, there will be many predicting a Newsom landslide.

 

[rightwinger]

Which experts?

In the lead-up to the 2024 United States presidential election, most major forecasting models and analysts gave the edge to Donald Trump (Republican) over Kamala Harris (Democrat).

• For example, the forecasting model by Nate Silver (formerly at FiveThirtyEight) gave Trump a higher probability of winning the Electoral College. Wikipedia+3Nate Silver+3The Economist+3
• Some polls and commentary showed a very tight race, with neither candidate dominating. Nate Silver+3The Hub+3The Week+3
• A few models (such as Allan Lichtman’s “13 keys” model) predicted Harris would win — but she did not. Brandeis University+1

In short: while the race was widely regarded as very competitive, the consensus tilt was toward Trump as the favorite.

 

[Blaster]

LOL

 

[pknopp]

Which experts?

Right, no one predicted that. "I saw a youtube video so it must be true".

 

[1srelluc]

This one was so embarrassed that she quit.

Ann Selzer​

Another big name in the polling industry, Ann Selzer released a shock poll the weekend before Election Day that showed Harris up by 3 points in Iowa, despite previous polling showing Trump with a healthy lead there and the state backing the Republican in the previous two elections.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom, found that 47 percent of Iowa voters supported Harris and 44 percent supported Trump.

Despite its historical reputation of being accurate, Selzer's poll did not reflect the final result in Iowa. Trump took the state with a comfortable 14-point lead, increasing his margin there from 2020, when he won the state by 9 points.

Here are some other much ballyhooed pollsters that got it all wrong.

MSN

 

[shockedcanadian]

2028 Is apolitical lifetime away. We all want America to succeed, it isnup to Trump. If Dems steal MAGA but even better, the can reclaim power.

 

[JoeB131]

Except they weren't really wrong.

They said it was a close race and it was.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

 

[1srelluc]

Except they weren't really wrong.

They said it was a close race and it was.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

You lost.....Bigly.

 

[SweetTea]

Except they weren't really wrong.

They said it was a close race and it was.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

I refuse to believe that the majority of the country is ignorant enough to vote for any of the current crop of extremist, Socialist Democrats, but then again, NYC is getting ready to elect one, so who knows. Maybe the years of indoctrination has finally reached the tipping point. If so, we are all doomed.

 

[rightwinger]

Right, no one predicted that. "I saw a youtube video so it must be true".

Polls showed Harris had a slight edge in the popular vote with Trump having the advantage in EVs

 

[rightwinger]

2028 Is apolitical lifetime away. We all want America to succeed, it isnup to Trump. If Dems steal MAGA but even better, the can reclaim power.

The electorate is fickle and swings from one party to another
Throw the bum out and give me someone new

 

[Mac1958]

Which experts?

In the lead-up to the 2024 United States presidential election, most major forecasting models and analysts gave the edge to Donald Trump (Republican) over Kamala Harris (Democrat).

Yeah. This wasn't a surprise given the numbers going in. There are always outlier partisans who scream LANDSLIDE, but landslides just don't happen now.

 

[Auld Phart]

Except they weren't really wrong.

They said it was a close race and it was.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

312-226 is hardly close.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Except they weren't really wrong.

They said it was a close race and it was.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

She was hobbled by failure and lack of qualifications.

 

[Auld Phart]

Polls showed Harris had a slight edge in the popular vote with Trump having the advantage in EVs

remind me.

when did the popular vote and not the electoral vote decide a presidential election?

 

[Hellokitty]

Which experts?

In the lead-up to the 2024 United States presidential election, most major forecasting models and analysts gave the edge to Donald Trump (Republican) over Kamala Harris (Democrat).

• For example, the forecasting model by Nate Silver (formerly at FiveThirtyEight) gave Trump a higher probability of winning the Electoral College. Wikipedia+3Nate Silver+3The Economist+3
• Some polls and commentary showed a very tight race, with neither candidate dominating. Nate Silver+3The Hub+3The Week+3
• A few models (such as Allan Lichtman’s “13 keys” model) predicted Harris would win — but she did not. Brandeis University+1

In short: while the race was widely regarded as very competitive, the consensus tilt was toward Trump as the favorite.

To start the majority of the polling is manipulated. Pre-TRUMP, when polls were referenced you could easily look at the data used including all questions asked demographics....now that is hidden and hard to find.
People like Silver understand talk of democrat landslides suppresses voter turn out.
I honestly don't remember the consensus till ever being towards a TRUMP win.

 

[Couchpotato]

Except they weren't really wrong.

They said it was a close race and it was.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

In the popular vote maybe. The electoral count really wasn’t close.

 

[Hellokitty]

Except they weren't really wrong.

They said it was a close race and it was.

So Trump barely managed to beat an opponent that was hobbled by being a last minute replacement.

Harris was the VP, 2nd in line, the one who for 4 years should have been capable of running the country.

Labeling her as a hobbled opponent last minute replacement is honest and exactly why she lost, even with the massive attempts to prop her up.

 

[Conservative from Georgia]

Is it because “Our reverence for the truth has become a distraction”?

If it is Newsom vs Vance in 2028, there will be many predicting a Newsom landslide.

Not one expert predicted a Kamala landslide.

 

[HeyNorm]

Polls showed Harris had a slight edge in the popular vote with Trump having the advantage in EVs

You get it!

With the excess votes the Dems get in dark blue states compared to the excess votes the republicans get in dark red states, the democrats need a 3.5% lead in the national popular vote to have a 50/50 shot at the swing states.

Harris was clinging to less than 1% lead and was doomed.