- Moderator
- #1
Some good information and stats in here. Special elections have been a strong indicator over the years as to how the country is blowing in the political winds. When the Republicans lost control of Congress in the 2006 midterms Republicans were getting beaten by Democrats in special elections for Republican districts in 2005 and 2006 at the state and federal level. Leading up to the 2010 midterms where Republicans clobbered the Democrats it was the GOP who was winning many seats. That pattern has steadily repeated itself over the years.
The Republicans just won a special election in a state senate seat in Connecticut that Biden won by 20 points. Newsom is now at 50/50 odds of being recalled in a state Biden won by almost 30 largely because Hispanics are bailing on him and there was a significant shift toward Trump among Hispanic male voters last year. Hispanic voters may be the key assuming Republicans don't drive them back to the Democrats with their base's xenophobia.
"When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.
Whether such a shift sustains itself can't be known at this point. Things may shift back to Democrats.
It shouldn't be too surprising if the Republican overperformance does hold. Back in 2009, there was a big movement away from Democrats in special elections toward the middle of the year. This foretold Republicans doing very well in the 2010 midterms."
If the pattern holds Republicans take back the House and the Senate and the way the Biden administration is flailing right now I would take those odds.
The Republicans just won a special election in a state senate seat in Connecticut that Biden won by 20 points. Newsom is now at 50/50 odds of being recalled in a state Biden won by almost 30 largely because Hispanics are bailing on him and there was a significant shift toward Trump among Hispanic male voters last year. Hispanic voters may be the key assuming Republicans don't drive them back to the Democrats with their base's xenophobia.
"When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.
Whether such a shift sustains itself can't be known at this point. Things may shift back to Democrats.
It shouldn't be too surprising if the Republican overperformance does hold. Back in 2009, there was a big movement away from Democrats in special elections toward the middle of the year. This foretold Republicans doing very well in the 2010 midterms."
If the pattern holds Republicans take back the House and the Senate and the way the Biden administration is flailing right now I would take those odds.
How the political environment is moving toward Republicans | CNN Politics
The trend in special state elections this year is becoming noticeable. Republicans are doing better than they were in the beginning of the year, and it could foretell their party's success in 2022.
www.cnn.com