SSDD -
Agriculture is ALREADY being impacted around the world - and largely negatively. I've posted stories here in the past about Australian wine producers ploughing their grapes under because the increased frequency of droughts and the subsequent cost of water made the crop unsustainable.
Drought is an intergal part of australia's climate. It is nothing new and certainly nothing that can be blamed on global warming. Try again.
Spain is one of Europe's major agricultural suppliers - as well as being one of the countries where climate change is most evident. Tomato and grape crops are under threat there.
Under threat of what? Drought? Flood? AGW inspired locusts? Stop predicting vague doom and gloom and get specific. What specific threat can you name and point to a human fingerprint?
Actually, that was proven around 10 years ago. The latest IIPC report suggests storm frequency is not linked to climate change, but storm intensity is. And the rest of the world knew ten years ago that wet countries can expect wetter weather; drier countries will experience more drought.
You believe because a thing is printed in an IPCC document it has been proven? You are working from model output, not observation. The observation is that neither droughts nor floods are happening with any more frequency today and are generally happening less.
Reconstructed cool- and warm-season precipitation over the tribal lands of northeastern Arizona - Springer
Possible linkages of late-Holocene drought in the North American midcontinent to Pacific Decadal Oscillation and solar activity - Tian - 2006 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library
A 5200-year record of freshwater availability for regions in western North America fed by high-elevation runoff - Wolfe - 2011 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library
Reconstructed drought variability in southeastern Sweden since the 1650s - Seftigen - 2012 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library
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CP - Abstract - Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy
A 450 year record of spring-summer flood layers in annually laminated sediments from Lake Ammersee (southern Germany) - Czymzik - 2010 - Water Resources Research - Wiley Online Library
Extraordinary hydro-climatic events during the period AD 200?300 recorded by slackwater deposits in the upper Hanjiang River valley, China
Holocene Floods of China's Jinghe River
And I could continue with published paper after paper stating that the climate is more extreme during cooler periods than the present.
As for the US - I'm AMAZED you need to ask how this "will" effect your world. Honestly...do you not have access to a news service?
Again with the vagaries. I have access to the news and again, I ask you to describe what my little corner of the world will look like. How will my winters be different? How will my summers be different? How will my growing season be effected. What crops can no longer be planted here? What new crops might be planted here. What will the average summertime temperature be? What will the average wintertime temperature be? How might my summertime and winter time energy use change?
Be specific. Vague threats are meaningless. Lets get down to what the actual changes will be.
The 2012-2013 North American Drought, an expansion of the 2010–2012 Southern United States drought, orignated in the midst of a record breaking heat wave. Low snowfall amounts in winter, coupled with the intense summer heat from La Nina, caused drought-like conditions to migrate northward from the southern United States, wreaking havoc on crops and water supply.[1] The drought has inflicted, and is expected to continue to inflict, catastrophic economic ramifications for the affected states. It has exceeded, in most measures, the 1988-1989 North American drought, the most recent comparable drought, and is on track to exceed that drought as the costliest natural disaster in US history.
Paper after paper fail to find a human fingerprint regarding the drought here in the US. It is neither unusual nor unprecedented in its scope, or duration. In fact, numerous worse droughts occurred back when CO2 was at "safe" levels.
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds Arizona droughts were less frequent and less extreme during 20th century
A new paper published in Climatic Change reconstructs droughts in NE Arizona over the past 400 years and finds the 20th century had "fewer multiyear [severe droughts] than any other century" and that "Perhaps of greatest relevance, this study suggests that severe and sustained episodes of dual-season drought, which are largely missing from the instrumental period, have occurred multiple times in the past (e.g., 1660s, 1740s, 1890s)." The paper adds to multiple others demonstrating that global warming does not increase the frequency or severity of droughts, floods, cyclones, or extreme weather.
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds Arizona droughts were less frequent and less extreme during 20th century
A paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds Midwest US droughts were less frequent and less extreme during the 20th century in comparison to the past 3100 years.The authors find the precipitation proxy "record of the past ∼3100 years reveals that droughts of greater severity and duration than during the 20th century occurred repeatedly, especially prior to 300 AD. Drought variability was anomalously low during the 20th century; ∼90% of the variability values during the last 3100 years were greater than the 20th-century average."
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds 2012 Great Plains drought was within natural variability
paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds the 2012 extreme Great Plains drought was within the natural variability of climate and that there is no evidence of a link to AGW. According to the authors, "it is concluded that the extreme Great Plains drought did not require extreme external forcings [i.e. greenhouse gases], and could plausibly have arisen from atmospheric noise [natural variability] alone." The four authors hail from different divisions of NOAA
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper shows N. American droughts were much more extreme 500 years ago
A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that the Central Plains of North America experienced multiple severe "megadroughts" [lasting up to 50 years each] during the Medieval Climate Anomaly from 1100-1500 AD. According to the authors, "These ‘megadroughts’ had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events." By comparison, the paper shows that droughts over the past 500 years have been much less extreme.
And again, I could continue with peer reviewed, published papers that are in direct opposition to your claims which derive from climate models.
Do you not think that impacted on farmers?
Sure it impacted farmers, but there is no provable human fingerprint on the drought as research clearly shows that they are not as bad today as they have been in the past. Drought is nothing new and pointing at it and every other natural climate variation and claiming demon CO2 and AGW is why you are not being taken seriously. If drought were something new then you would have a point but it isn't...neither are floods and neither have any definable human fingerprint attatched.
Remember when you used to ask for observable impacts of climate change?!
Climate change is not the issue since the climate is, has, and always will be changing. Man made climate change is the issue and it still remains unproven. Nothing is happening in the climate today that is new or unprecedented or outside the bounds of natural variability.
So again, describe in some detail exactly how a 2 degree increase in the global mean temperature will change my little corner of the world. I suspect that you won't really attempt to do so because in the long run, the pros will far outweigh the cons.
