We have had 33000 deaths in just the past two weeks, 57000 or so in the past month....
What do you think the number will be of the deaths from this virus by the end of the year, based on what you know now of how the States are handling their reopenings, and how some states are not affected by it, while other states are swarming with it, and medical discoveries?
My guess is 100k by the end of July and another 100k by the end of the year, so probably about 200k in total by the end of the year....even if a vaccine is available by the end of the year and if there are drugs created that helps recovery time.
It could be higher... I dunno?
As of yesterday morning.
Deaths: 61,200 - of which, btw 29% is in NY (I believe those numbers include the Flu deaths and NY didn't allocate correctly as they are such an outlier but let's assume 61,200 is accurate).
Population: 330mil. Probably more due to the non documented but we will go with that #.
Deaths per 1000: Less than 2.
Let's say I assume 2.5x the deaths or 154,250. That number moves to
less than 5 deaths per 1000 persons. We all agree it is a war and in war unfortunately you sacrifice the few to save the many. Why are we sacrificing 900+ people to save 2 or at worst 5?
Do you actually believe that if you opened the economy right now, things would be hunky dory, and things would go back to normal with booming sales? People are just going to go out and spend like crazy, and attend theaters and stadiums and restaurants like nothing ever happened?
It'll be quite a while before people will feel safe, and feel safe that their mom or dad or grandmom or grand dad, or sister with Asthma, or husband fighting cancer, etc., won't be killed by it
This great depression is with us for at least 5 years to recover from this pandemic and economic catastrophe.... maybe less, if a vaccine is working, and our gvt could actually pull off getting enough vaccines and chemicals, test tubes, shot casings and needles to actually administer it, unlike their total FAILURE on the virus test kits from the get go, let alone get people to accept and take the vaccination to protect the nation....
And the rest of the world would have to recover from it too, that we trade and sell our goods and agriculture to....
This is going to be a slower recovery than I believe you think.....
If we could give the public, a better assurance that the virus isn't just out there spreading like wildfire, it could bring consumer confidence up a little... but that would take great efforts of testing and contact tracing and isolating only those that were sick, and identifying new hot spots etc.....
And I have little confidence, that the Trump administration with the states, can accomplish such... though I have hope of such....
There are 60 million adults, that are at risk....the elderly and those younger with medical conditions.... let alone the ones that just get it and die with no pre existing or at risk, conditions.
the economy ain't coming back with any kind of roar, with all those big spenders in the 60 million adults at risk group, feeling the need to shelter, because no one is doing anything to curb the virus and identify where it is at and what areas it is moving through.....