How do we Know Human are Causing Climate Change?

[Crick]

And yet the planet is cooler than past interglacial cycles.

Again (and again and again and again): our concern is rapid deviations from the climate range under which human culture evolved. I don't care that it was really hot or really cold a hundred million years ago.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

And yet the planet is cooler than past interglacial cycles.

And that means, exactly, what? The key is that past interglacials were driven by natural forcings (specifically and chiefly the Milankovich Cycles). The current interglacial, regardless of human activity is whatever temperature it is. The key is that:

1. We should be heading back into another glacial advance and we should be seeing cooling. But we are NOT. We are, instead, warming.

2. Anthropogenic Global Warming will be expected to have the biggest impact on our societies in general. Our agricultural infrastructure, our land-usage and our economies. Something that we didn't have in the last interglacial

 

[ding]

Again (and again and again and again): our concern is rapid deviations from the climate range under which human culture evolved. I don't care that it was really hot or really cold a hundred million years ago.

There is no rapid deviation. We are still within the normal range for interglacials. Call me when the planet warms another 3C. Then the planet will be outside of the normal range.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

There is no rapid deviation. We are still within the normal range for interglacials. Call me when the planet warms another 3C. Then the planet will be outside of the normal range.

What is causing the current warming? We know a great deal about what causes warming and cooling, so why is it warming since 1850? If it is simply "natural variation" it would seem to be pretty one-directional (warming) and if we are just catching up to the peak of the last interglacial why is it happening so late in this interglacial?

We should be heading into a new glacial advance per Milankovich Cycles but we aren't cooling. Why are warming?

 

[ding]

And that means, exactly, what? The key is that past interglacials were driven by natural forcings (specifically and chiefly the Milankovich Cycles). The current interglacial, regardless of human activity is whatever temperature it is. The key is that:

1. We should be heading back into another glacial advance and we should be seeing cooling. But we are NOT. We are, instead, warming.

2. Anthropogenic Global Warming will be expected to have the biggest impact on our societies in general. Our agricultural infrastructure, our land-usage and our economies. Something that we didn't have in the last interglacial

Not exactly. Milankovich Cycles trigger ice ages not interglacial cycles.

The last eccentric orbital forcing was nearly circular, so no, we shouldn’t be headed for another glacial cycle. There’s a longer 400,000 year cycle which the planet just experienced.

Scientist reach opposite conclusions on the cause of the recent warming trend depending on the datasets they use. Specifically, urban temperature dataset and the low variability solar output dataset versus the rural temperature dataset and high variability solar output dataset used by NASA.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Not exactly. Milankovich Cycles trigger ice ages not interglacial cycles.

How, exactly, do you think cycles operate

Scientist reach opposite conclusions on the cause of the recent warming trend depending on the datasets they use. Specifically, urban temperature dataset

Urban heat island effects are shown to NOT AFFECT THE OVERALL DATASET.

"Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures. It is postulated that this is due to micro- and local-scale impacts dominating over the mesoscale urban heat island. Industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites, but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within park cool islands than industrial regions."

SOURCE:

Assessment of Urban Versus Rural In Situ Surface Temperatures in the Contiguous United States: No Difference Found

Abstract All analyses of the impact of urban heat islands (UHIs) on in situ temperature observations suffer from inhomogeneities or biases in the data. These inhomogeneities make urban heat island analyses difficult and can lead to erroneous conclusions. To remove the biases caused by...

journals.ametsoc.org

and the low variability solar output dataset versus the rural temperature dataset and high variability solar output dataset used by NASA.

Solar output is not currently able to account for the warming we've seen over the last 50 years.

There is not that much disagreement among the actual scientists in this area. Sure there are a few outliers, folks who don't agree with all of the science, but that is to be expected as it occurs in all the sciences. But among the actual professionals involved in this research there is a general agreement that human activity is largely to blame for the warming we are seeing.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

What is causing the current warming? We know a great deal about what causes warming and cooling, so why is it warming since 1850? If it is simply "natural variation" it would seem to be pretty one-directional (warming) and if we are just catching up to the peak of the last interglacial why is it happening so late in this interglacial?

We should be heading into a new glacial advance per Milankovich Cycles but we aren't cooling. Why are warming?

As it turns out, the uneducated slobs on USMB have not yet outsmarted the global scientific community. Who'da thunk it?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

We should be heading back into another glacial advance and we should be seeing cooling.

Cooling with advancing glaciers would be better? Why?

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Cooling with advancing glaciers would be better? Why?

Not saying better or worse, just that if this is nothing more than an interglacial then why are we WARMING instead of cooling given that by most rights we should be heading back into a cooling phase?

We can't control the earth's orbital obliquity but we SURE can control our own actions.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

by most rights we should be heading back into a cooling phase?

I think cooling would be worse. What do you think?

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

As it turns out, the uneducated slobs on USMB have not yet outsmarted the global scientific community. Who'da thunk it?

There's no shame in lacking education in this area. It's pretty specialized. One can understand the basic science with minimal training but it still requires some. Not all are meant to be scientists.

I agree that often we see people without any training whatsoever making claims about the "errors" they've found in science they don't understand. It's a pretty common sight.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

I think cooling would be worse. What do you think?

Given that another glaical advance will take thousands upon thousands of years to happen vs warming which we are doing in record time will have a nearly immediate (within the next century ) and devastating effect on our economies and our societies I'm going to say this warming is worse than not.

 

[ding]

How, exactly, do you think cycles operate

This is the best video I’ve seen on the subject.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Given that another glaical advance will take thousands upon thousands of years to happen

But the cooling would be happening now.
How do our crops do during periods of cooling?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

But the cooling would be happening now.
How do our crops do during periods of cooling?

You tell us. It's your point to make.

Let me help:

The cooling to which you refer is about 5degC over 20,000 years.

And....go

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

You tell us. It's your point to make.

Let me help:

The cooling to which you refer is about 5degC over 20,000 years.

And....go

The cooling to which you refer is about 5degC over 20,000 years.

That's the fasting cooling ever happens? Link?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The cooling to which you refer is about 5degC over 20,000 years.

That's the fasting cooling ever happens? Link?

Oops, another idiot non sequitur. To be expected.

I don't suppose we will get treated to you actually making your point any time soon.

I will check back.

 

[watchingfromafar]

Fight as hard as you may, climate change began when our planet was struck by a huge meteor that caused our planet to tilt about 3 degrees which caused our planet to wobble. This wobbling causes a change in air flow and sea currents. These changes created unstable weather patterns.

In the Beginning earth was a molten blob of rock with a high concentration of oxygen and hydrogen gas and a few others like nitrogen & argon.
The nitrogen and oxygen gases were heated up by an external force until a spontaneous combustion reaction took place.
In the process a great deal of heat was released. This heat energy began cooling and as it cooled the water molecules clung to each other producing ice. This Ice originally covered our plant.

Snowball Earth: There are times our planet was covered in ice
Ancient rocks suggest that ice entirely covered our planet on at least two occasions. This theory may help explain the rise of complex life that followed.
Published: Friday, April 5, 2019
The story of Snowball Earth | Astronomy.com

The Snowball Earth hypothesis proposes that, during one or more of Earth's icehouse climates, the planet's surface became entirely or nearly entirely frozen. It is believed that this occurred sometime before 650 Mya during the Cryogenian period. Wikipedia
The story of Snowball Earth

Snowball Earth

Introduction​

Our planet is thought to have been completely frozen over during the Neoproterozoic. From space, Earth would have looked like a big snowball.
Callan Bentley art

The “Snowball Earth” glaciations were a series of ice ages during the Neoproterozoic era of geologic time, mainly confined to the Cryogenian period, but perhaps also into the Ediacaran period, too. These ice ages were thought to have been so profound that perhaps the entire surface of the planet froze over, all the way from the poles to the equator. In a 1992 paper, Caltech geophysicist Joe Kirschvink quipped that from a vantage point in outer space, the planet would have looked like a giant snowball. The evocative name stuck, and there has been an avalanche of scientific studies investigating the Snowball Earth glaciations ever since.

I believe what we are seeing above is our “climate” in action.

Earth's atmosphere is composed of about 78 percent nitrogen, 21 percent oxygen, 0.9 percent argon, and 0.1 percent other gases. Trace amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, and neon are some of the other gases that make up the remaining 0.1 percent
https://tinyurl.com/bdz5fkyp

In today’s world, can a grown-up adult, deny climate change?
-
Today we are in a warming cycle
Ice caps are melting

​

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Fight as hard as you may, climate change began when our planet was struck by a huge meteor that caused out planet to tilt about 3 degrees which caused our planet to wobble. This wobbling causes a change in air flow and sea currents. These changes created unstable weather patterns.

In the Beginning earth was a molten blob of rock with a high concentration of oxygen and hydrogen gas and a few others like nitrogen & argon.
The nitrogen and oxygen gases were heated up by an external force until a spontaneous combustion reaction took place.
In the process a great deal of heat was released. This heat energy began cooling and as it cooled the water molecules clung to each other producing ice. This Ice originally covered our plant.

View attachment 625217

Snowball Earth: There are times our planet was covered in ice
Ancient rocks suggest that ice entirely covered our planet on at least two occasions. This theory may help explain the rise of complex life that followed.
Published: Friday, April 5, 2019
The story of Snowball Earth | Astronomy.com

The Snowball Earth hypothesis proposes that, during one or more of Earth's icehouse climates, the planet's surface became entirely or nearly entirely frozen. It is believed that this occurred sometime before 650 Mya during the Cryogenian period. Wikipedia
The story of Snowball Earth

Snowball Earth

Introduction​

Our planet is thought to have been completely frozen over during the Neoproterozoic. From space, Earth would have looked like a big snowball.
Callan Bentley art

The “Snowball Earth” glaciations were a series of ice ages during the Neoproterozoic era of geologic time, mainly confined to the Cryogenian period, but perhaps also into the Ediacaran period, too. These ice ages were thought to have been so profound that perhaps the entire surface of the planet froze over, all the way from the poles to the equator. In a 1992 paper, Caltech geophysicist Joe Kirschvink quipped that from a vantage point in outer space, the planet would have looked like a giant snowball. The evocative name stuck, and there has been an avalanche of scientific studies investigating the Snowball Earth glaciations ever since.

I believe what we are seeing above is our “climate” in action.

Earth's atmosphere is composed of about 78 percent nitrogen, 21 percent oxygen, 0.9 percent argon, and 0.1 percent other gases. Trace amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, and neon are some of the other gases that make up the remaining 0.1 percent
https://tinyurl.com/bdz5fkyp

In today’s world, can a grown-up adult, deny climate change?
-
Today we are in a warming cycle
Ice caps are melting

​

Again, the reason you know about any of the past earth's climate changes is because of the same research that tells us that the current warming is best explained by human activity.

The field of paleoclimatology exists and has helped to better understand what natural forcings do to the climate. And we have a reasonable handle on the usual natural causes of warming or cooling. The problem is that the current warming doesn't line up enough with natural forcings or cycles sufficient to explain the warming but human forcings explain it quite well!

So anytime someone tries to tell you that AGW can't be real because the earth's climate has changed before; that's not what the actual science tells us. The actual science tells us that YES the earth's climate has changed before and that helps us understand that the current climate change is likely not predominantly natural.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Again, the reason you know about any of the past earth's climate changes is because of the same research that tells us that the current warming is best explained by human activity.

^^