G.O.P. in House Leaves Immigration Bill in Doubt
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peaker John A. Boehner, front, in Washington on Tuesday. He is said to be reluctant to anger conservatives to court Hispanics.
New York Times - By JONATHAN WEISMAN - Published: June 25, 2013
WASHINGTON With the Senate days away from passing the most significant immigration legislation in a generation, House Republicans say they feel no pressure to act quickly on a similar measure, leaving the fate of the bill very much in doubt despite solid bipartisan Senate support.
We have a minority of the minority in the Senate voting for this bill, said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, referring to the 15 or so Republicans expected to back the Senate measure. Thats not going to put a lot of pressure on the majority of the majority in the House.
Two senior House Republican leadership aides were more blunt when speaking privately:
Speaker John A. Boehner has no intention of angering conservative voters and jeopardizing the House Republican majority in 2014 in the interest of courting Hispanic voters on behalf of a 2016 Republican presidential nominee who does not yet exist.
If anything, the politics of a gerrymandered House where Republican lawmakers have much more to fear politically from the right than from the left could push many Republicans to oppose a conservative alternative to the Senates plan.
Even advocates of a comprehensive immigration bill that includes a pathway to legalization for unauthorized immigrants now in the country say that Senate passage as early as Friday would not change House sentiment quickly.
The House is not going to get logrolled by the Senate, said Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, who lost his bid to be vice president last year in part because of the Republican Partys abysmal showing with immigrant voters. Well have a more methodical, patient way of doing this.
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Can we pass a House bill? Its a very open question, said Representative Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, a leading voice among a shrinking group of moderate Republicans.
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a vote for legislation like the Senate bill could hold real peril for House Republicans, whose solidly Republican districts reward politicians who take the most conservative positions on issues. A new poll by National Journal found that nearly half of Republican voters,
49 percent, said a lawmaker who backs legislation offering a pathway to citizenship would lose their support...
I think most members look at this with a great deal of trepidation, Mr. Cole said.
What the Houses methodical approach yields may determine the ultimate fate of immigration legislation in the 113th Congress. If the House can pass its own immigration bill, lawmakers will have a counteroffer to bring to the voters next year even if the House and Senate bills cannot be reconciled into a final package for President Obama to sign.
That dynamic played out in 2006, when the Senate passed a comprehensive immigration bill, the House passed a measure bolstering border security without offering new paths to legal immigration, and
both bills died with the 109th Congress.
But a sizable group of conservatives fear that passing any immigration bill in the House would set up House-Senate negotiations stacked to yield a final deal that would be much closer to the Senates plan than the Houses. If that group, in opposition, joins balking Democrats, they could ensure that no conservative immigration bill would pass.
It will likely take months for the issue to play out. Mr. Boehner has called a July 10 meeting of all House Republicans to hash over a way forward. In the meantime, the House Judiciary Committee will continue passing a series of piecemeal bills that already include a border security bill, an agriculture guest worker plan, and, this week, measures to create a fortified employment eligibility verification system and to expand immigration for science, technology, engineering and mathematics experts.
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Republican lawmakers see little chance of action until this fall or winter. After Congresss August recess, lawmakers will return to Washington to confront two unavoidable fiscal challenges. First, comes Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year, when a government shutdown looms over sharp differences between the House and Senate over spending levels. That will be followed quickly by the next showdown over the governments statutory borrowing limit, which House Republicans will use to try to force concessions from President Obama on taxes and entitlement programs like Medicare.
An immigration battle is a distant second to those matters, Republicans say.
I dont know why wed get embroiled in this fight, which is apt to be very divisive in the conference, before we take care of the more immediate issues, Mr. Cole said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/26/us/politics/gop-in-house-leaves-immigration-bill-in-doubt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
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