Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest decline since 2011

[iamwhatiseem]

Well, I guess we will find out soon who is correct.

They need to fall, so we both should wish it happens.
Unsustainable increases in anything is short-term good - but long term bad.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

They need to fall, so we both should wish it happens.
Unsustainable increases in anything is short-term good - but long term bad.

The need to at least level off, and if they come down some that would be ok. We do not need a crash

 

[iamwhatiseem]

The need to at least level off, and if they come down some that would be ok. We do not need a crash

It has to come down. Like 2008, the longer the market stays over-valued the worse the crash will be.
Greed is why.
During the 90s and early 2000s unconscious housing market growth... all based on bad loans the government encouraged, even leveled threats against large banks if they didn't do sub prime loans... then folks like Larry Summers and a handful of others thought up derivative markets that buried these bad loans in other investment "packages" - all in an effort to bury the GLARING fact the U.S. housing market was built entirely on quick sand.
We are obviously nowhere near that kind of buildup... but greed is always present, and the government is always there assisting elite wealthy companies to capitalize on a situation. So could it happen again?
Of course! Banks right now are loaning money to people for homes they KNOW are way over valued. Now why would they do that? Because their risk is minimal. The bank you go to get that loan will sell your mortgage as fast as they can to one of the major banks. And those banks are confident the U.S. Government will bail their poor investments out - absolutely. And all of the imbeciles who bought those homes during this period - they are the only ones to suffer.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

It has to come down. Like 2008, the longer the market stays over-valued the worse the crash will be.
Greed is why.
During the 90s and early 2000s unconscious housing market growth... all based on bad loans the government encouraged, even leveled threats against large banks if they didn't do sub prime loans... then folks like Larry Summers and a handful of others thought up derivative markets that buried these bad loans in other investment "packages" - all in an effort to bury the GLARING fact the U.S. housing market was built entirely on quick sand.
We are obviously nowhere near that kind of buildup... but greed is always present, and the government is always there assisting elite wealthy companies to capitalize on a situation. So could it happen again?
Of course! Banks right now are loaning money to people for homes they KNOW are way over valued. Now why would they do that? Because their risk is minimal. The bank you go to get that loan will sell your mortgage as fast as they can to one of the major banks. And those banks are confident the U.S. Government will bail their poor investments out - absolutely. And all of the imbeciles who bought those homes during this period - they are the only ones to suffer.

I guess in your view I am one of those imbeciles as I am 39 days and 3 hours from closing on the house we are having built. We signed the contract on it in March.

We will live it in for a minimum of 10 years till we retire and by then we will decide if we wish to stay where we are for retirement.

I do not really feel like an imbecile, it was the right time for us to do it.

Honestly could not be more excited about the whole thing.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

I guess in your view I am one of those imbeciles as I am 39 days and 3 hours from closing on the house we are having built. We signed the contract on it in March.

We will live it in for a minimum of 10 years till we retire and by then we will decide if we wish to stay where we are for retirement.

I do not really feel like an imbecile, it was the right time for us to do it.

Honestly could not be more excited about the whole thing.

If you have the funds to do it... more power to you.
If you had to borrow more than 80% of it, you will be screwed if anything goes wrong in your financial life.
Building costs have skyrocketed in the past several years. So yes, you overpaid. If you would have waited until next year, or better 2024 - you might have paid significantly less.
When you bought the lumber in, guessing April lumber prices were about 12% higher than they are now.
So if you paid, say $70,000 for the lumber... if you would have waited just 6 months you would have paid $61,500
Now take that and include all of the other materials... and you would have paid at least $50,000 less if you wouldn't have done it during a major peak in pricing.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

If you have the funds to do it... more power to you.
If you had to borrow more than 80% of it, you will be screwed if anything goes wrong in your financial life.
Building costs have skyrocketed in the past several years. So yes, you overpaid. If you would have waited until next year, or better 2024 - you might have paid significantly less.
When you bought the lumber in, guessing April lumber prices were about 12% higher than they are now.
So if you paid, say $70,000 for the lumber... if you would have waited just 6 months you would have paid $61,500
Now take that and include all of the other materials... and you would have paid at least $50,000 less if you wouldn't have done it during a major peak in pricing.

Hindsight is a powerful tool.

We bought when the time was right for us. I guess we could have continued to pay rent for the next two years, which would have been more than the 50 grand you say we could have saved on the house.

And that of course is assuming the market crashes like you claim it will.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Hindsight is a powerful tool.

We bought when the time was right for us. I guess we could have continued to pay rent for the next two years, which would have been more than the 50 grand you say we could have saved on the house.

And that of course is assuming the market crashes like you claim it will.

I don't claim anything.
I can read. And all of the people in the industry are saying it is likely to. Not me.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I don't claim anything.
I can read. And all of the people in the industry are saying it is likely to. Not me.

Not all. But do not let that stop you.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/column-weekly-housing-update-20-august-buzzword/

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I don't claim anything.
I can read. And all of the people in the industry are saying it is likely to. Not me.

Will There Be a Housing Market Crash? | Analysts Explain

Buyers struggle to afford homes amid surging mortgage costs and recession concerns. Will the housing market crash? Read on to find out…

capital.com

Is The Housing Market About To Crash? | Bankrate

Yes, the housing market is cooling. But there's wide agreement among experts about one thing.

www.bankrate.com

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Will There Be a Housing Market Crash? | Analysts Explain

Buyers struggle to afford homes amid surging mortgage costs and recession concerns. Will the housing market crash? Read on to find out…

capital.com

Is The Housing Market About To Crash? | Bankrate

Yes, the housing market is cooling. But there's wide agreement among experts about one thing.

www.bankrate.com

Yeah and these are probably the same people all during the 2000s saying "it's all good!!"

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Yeah and these are probably the same people all during the 2000s saying "it's all good!!"

This is not the 2000s. We did not have a huge housing shortage problem in the 2000s.

All your wishful thinking will not bring about a crash.

 

[Ringo]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/29/bucerius-global-leadership-america-democratic-decline/#

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

I put my house on the market in June for $270,000, based on comparable houses in the area. In the first month, I got zero interest from buyers. We dropped the price to $259,000 in July. We got some interest but nothing serious. In August we lowered the price again to $249,000. Still very little interest and no offers. Another price cut to $240,000 got us our first offer, with my paying $5000 in closing costs, so in reality I sold it for $235,000.

During this time, there were 10 houses on the market in my large neighborhood. My house and one other were the only ones to sell from June to September. A good deal of our neighborhood is military because of the nearby Army post. These houses were sitting empty during all this time.

I don't know what you would call the housing market,, but my personal experience says it sucks ass!