Never heard of him.
The sitting president is NOT running for reelection.
There is NOT a third party challenger. He has dropped out.
The economy is NOT strong. The economy is one of the biggest areas of complaint by people, inflation, high costs.
Growth is largely based on recovering from a national lockdown for two years.
All of them bad.
Much of it against Biden/Harris. Besides, wasn't there social unrest in 2020 (George Floyd)? How did that help Trump?
Biden charismatic? Harris charismatic? You gotta be kidding. And scandal? Walz is being subpoenaed, Hunter just pleaded guilty to felonies and Biden has been charged with taking bribes for foreign favors.
Trump is the most charismatic candidate in a generation.
There is no incumbent. Harris is in office, but only as a VP who has hid these past 4 years.
So that makes Harris more likely to win?
I'd like to know what? Sending missiles to Ukraine to fight a futile war?
How?
If the above is the sole reasons for this guy to think Harris will win, I find his conclusions specious and flawed.
Well so much of your post is lies and bullshit, no wonder you call his predictions "specious".
Let's start with "The economy is not strong". That's a fucking lie. Your economy is the strongest in the first world, and you've had the most successful covid recovery, in large part, because of the number of immigrants you've taken in.
As for the current White House policies being "all bad", then why is the economy doing so WELL. Highest GDP in decades, record stock markets, highest job creation record EVER!!! The deficit is coming down, the trade deficit is falling like a stone, infrastructure is being rebuilt. Full employment, wages are rising. Crime is down.
Trump is the WORST PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY. Worst job creation record, worst economic record, most racial violence, massive increases in the budget deficit, the balance of trade, and over a million people dead from covid.
Trump loyalist have already filed over 100 lawsuits to PREVENT Americans from VOTING.
Now you have a city in Ohio which is now under lockdown because of the violence of the Trump Cult.
Everything Trump does turns to shit.