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Helmut Norpoth the Only Pollster Who Predicted a Trump Victory


Old Fogey
Sep 25, 2011
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The man called it, I remember that from about last March and thought he made some interesting points.

The Unknown Professor Who Called Trump’s Win

Pollsters who confidently predicted a comfortable victory for Hillary Clinton in the presidential election might lose business, according to one of the few experts who foresaw a win by Donald Trump.

And State University of New York Stoney Brook professor Helmet Norpoth did not make the call after Trump started winning unexpected states on Tuesday — as some forecasters did after they adjusted their odds to match developments — or even a few days or weeks before the election. He made the prediction before either party’s nominees had even been chosen — in February.

Taking a victory lap Thursday on “The Laura Ingraham Show,” he said polls no longer are the best way to measure presidential elections. He predicted there would be a “reckoning” of the polling industry, noting that Gallup gave up horse-race polls after misfiring on the 2012 presidential race.

“You might see some of the companies that did this lose clients, because now people see that they don’t get it right,” he said. “There are other ways of trying to make a prediction based on things that you see in election after election, particularly like early indicators, like what’s happening in presidential primaries, and I wish that people would sort of look more at that … and not be totally fixated by polls that are not getting it all that right anymore.”

Norpoth said he got many congratulatory emails after Tuesday’s results.

“I think many of them are still scratching their heads, because they not only thought it was improbable but unimaginable, and they didn’t like to see it happen — so these things come together,” he said.

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