Fifty fifty might be true. If it was a coin toss. But it is a legal argument. A Criminal Justice question. Here Trump is in trouble. A lot of trouble.
I know the Georgia situation better. Let me say this. If it goes to trial Trump has a roughly 80% chance of being found guilty on most of the charges.
I’ll admit that the New York case is weaker. I’d say maybe 40% chance of a conviction.
Florida? 60% chance of being found guilty. Even with a friendly Judge she has a limit of what she can do for him. At least without finding her Law License threatened.
Washington D. C.? Maybe 70% chance of conviction. I’m not as familiar with that one.
So fifty fifty odds is being generous.