Handicapping the 2016 GOP Race

[JoeB131]

[

You are right about the "rank-and-file" always voting for whatever candidate the party provides irrespective of their viability or suitability for the job. The candidate who wins is the one who can sway the non-aligned moderates in the middle. So the candidate has to have something that is going to appeal to those moderates. When you look at Ford, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Bush Sr, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain and Romney they all failed to convince the moderates that they were the person who could do a better job in the Whitehouse.

I don't think that the middle rejected ANY Of those guys because of their idealogies. McCain and Romney were moderates.

Carter and Bush Sr. won once. They lost because they couldn't answer the Reagan Question- Are you better off than you were for years ago. Obama could answer that one "yes", although barely.

The GOP's best successes post Watergate were Reagan and Bush Jr., who were unapologetically conservative.

A better measure, I think, is personal likability. Forget idealogy, who would you rather go have a beer with?

So honestly, I could see the GOP winning with a very right wing candidate if he's likable and the Democrats run a shrill, 70 year old woman. Not that I want that to happen, but I could see it.

 

[Wildman]

Gabby Giffords, her right side will demand she change parties, her left side is dead numb, just like the rest of the dem party. ...

 

[The Rabbi]

Duly noted Frank and Rabbid couldn't discuss the topic of GOP hopefuls without going into anti-Obama rants.

Psst. Psst. Guys. Obama won't be running in 2016.

They arent GOP hopefuls, numbnuts.

 

[bendog]

[

You are right about the "rank-and-file" always voting for whatever candidate the party provides irrespective of their viability or suitability for the job. The candidate who wins is the one who can sway the non-aligned moderates in the middle. So the candidate has to have something that is going to appeal to those moderates. When you look at Ford, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Bush Sr, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain and Romney they all failed to convince the moderates that they were the person who could do a better job in the Whitehouse.

I don't think that the middle rejected ANY Of those guys because of their idealogies. McCain and Romney were moderates.

Carter and Bush Sr. won once. They lost because they couldn't answer the Reagan Question- Are you better off than you were for years ago. Obama could answer that one "yes", although barely.

The GOP's best successes post Watergate were Reagan and Bush Jr., who were unapologetically conservative.

A better measure, I think, is personal likability. Forget idealogy, who would you rather go have a beer with?

So honestly, I could see the GOP winning with a very right wing candidate if he's likable and the Democrats run a shrill, 70 year old woman. Not that I want that to happen, but I could see it.

Reagan raised taxes seven times, once to save soc sec, and both he and JR supported amnesty. Romney didn't run as a moderate; he ran telling retirees they were "takers."

It's really impossible to tell how extreme the gop will be in 2016.

 

[rightwinger]

I think Marco was the "See, we aren't racist. Marco's hispanic and we don't have him parking the cars" Token.

But once he started advocating meaningful immigration reform, he was kind of done.

Another one I think you might see a future for is Ted Cruz.

Not sure if Cruz is eligible.......we will have to ask the birthers

 

[ClosedCaption]

That is probably the most honest assessment of the GOP canidates I've seen. Balanced

 

[deaddogseye]

Some very good comments and analysis.

One thing -- John Huntsman is not even close to a serious GOP contender for the nomination or for election if he got nominated. Whatever you may think of him -- its just not gonna happen. Hes like michael bloomberg lite (at leastBloomberg made his own $$, Huntman is spending daddy's dough). There is just nothing to him at all - nothing. And he has no constiuency or political base either (which really is also like Bloomberg who I always heard wanted badly to run but couldnt get over that problem either). Its great to run around saying Im not like all these other guys for the following reasons and the party has to move away from them etc etc, but even oif the party decides to do it, they wont move to him. I think -again like bloomberg - he just wants to keep hisd name and face in the public eye for whatever reason (and he wont do it anywhere near as well as bloomberg does who i cant stand but at least has some measure of gravitas to him ; huntsmanv screams out liteweight).