CNN National Security Analyst Peter Bergen, for one, maintains that al Qaeda - at least its components based in south central Asia - is in terrible shape. "Their record of failure speaks for itself: No success in the west since the London attacks of 2005, no attacks in the United States since 9/11 (2001), almost the entire top leadership dead or captured," said Bergen. Adds Robert Grenier, the former head of the CIA's Counterterrorism Center, "The movement has essentially been marginalized." And a senior U.S. official describes al Qaeda as "largely in survival mode, putting most of its energy into coping with the losses and changes of the last year with a disjointed focus on global jihad."
Ayman al-Zawahiri replaced bin Laden at the helm, but by most all accounts he is a shadow of the cult-like figure of bin Laden. According to the U.S. official, al-Zawahiri "lacks the charisma of his predecessor and his messages lack the inspiration that was bin Laden's hallmark." In al-Zawahiri's defense, "He inherited a bit of a lemon" - an organization in decline - "and he's not making lemonade out of it," said Bergen, who has just written a book entitled, "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden from 9/11 to Abbottabad."
Last July, then CIA Director Leon Panetta said that with bin Laden dead, the United States was "within reach of strategically defeating al Qaeda." He went on to say that the group's remaining leaders were on the run, and it was time "to put maximum pressure on them because... we really can cripple al Qaeda as a threat." One of the tools being used, to this end, are missiles launched by unmanned CIA aircraft against members of al Qaeda and other terrorist groups operating from the tribal areas of Pakistan. While the pace has waned since the May 2011 bin Laden raid, drone strikes have been central to the strategy of President Barack Obama's administration - as evidenced by a dramatic increase since he took office.
Fran Townsend, a CNN National Security Contributor who was President George W. Bush's counterterrorism advisor when these attacks were first launched in Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan, called them "very effective in making it difficult for (terrorists) to communicate, travel, plan and train." She added that she feels it is crucial the drone program doesn't become a bargaining chip in U.S.-Pakistan relations. That relationship - which has been tension-filled for years - spiraled downward in 2011, after U.S. forces' secret raid into Pakistan to take out bin Laden and a later attack on Pakistani troops near the Afghanistan border that left 24 dead. U.S. officials characterized the latter attack as an accident.
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