Good Senate Polling Recently

[JakeStarkey]

So that's why NC and KS are so read?

Thanks, longknife.

 

[JakeStarkey]

What is helping our GOP is that overwhelming destruction of the TPM candidacies in the primaries.

That has forced everybody to slide a step or two toward the center right.

 

[Nyvin]

A kansas poll just came out with Orman (I) at +7%!!!!!!

WOW! I truly think the map I posted will be pretty darn close to the outcome

 

[JakeStarkey]

still have 7 weeks: lots can happen

 

[Nyvin]

You liberals keep on trying. All your hoping won't change the outcome.

Dem candidates are running away from Obama at records speeds but he's still breathing over their shoulders and voters see him there.

Looking at official polls is "hoping"?

 

[mamooth]

Sam Wang at the PEC aggregates the senate polls, and gives odds of Dems holding the senate of 81%.

http://election.princeton.edu/todays...unt-histogram/

I know poll data won't sway the "gut feeling" crowd, the same crowd that predicted Romney's inevitable victory, based on how "the fundamentals are all against Obama".

 

[rightwinger]

A kansas poll just came out with Orman (I) at +7%!!!!!!

WOW! I truly think the map I posted will be pretty darn close to the outcome

Kansas might be interesting with voter blowback against the governors conservative policies

 

[Statistikhengst]

Looks like NH May be drawing even

I really doubt it, it's barely a week after Brown's primary win. It's just a post-primary popularity surge. I expect it'll return to normal by early October.

When I get home and can type fast with the desktop system, I'll put in my two cents about this.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[gipper]

It does not matter which of the two criminal gangs wins the Senate. Nothing will change.

We will continue down the road to serfdom, no matter who wins.

Of course the gangs and those connected to them, will get richer and more powerful, while all others lose liberty and wealth. It is the nature of the beast....and the beast is an ever bigger centralized state controlled by a small elite.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Yes, that is exactly what the corporate elites want: them controlling the state.

 

[gipper]

Yes, that is exactly what the corporate elites want: them controlling the state.

They do now and have for some time.

Where have you been?

 

[Statistikhengst]

So the Senate has been looking more positive for the democrats in the last 3-4 weeks for the most part. Hagan has returned to her normal lead of +1-3% in the polls, a Ras poll has shown her +6%...but, yeah, Ras....

It looks like Michigan is pretty much out of the GOP's reach now...with the last three polls in a row showing Peters ahead by +5%, +10%, and +9%. An online poll did show Land with +1%...but I REALLY don't put much stock into the YouGov online polls. They just have not proven themselves to be reliable or in line with pretty much the rest of the world (this goes both ways...not showing a bias to either party, just being very sketchy)

Iowa has gone from consecutive polls showing a tie to a THREE polls showing Braley having a small lead in the 1-4% range. This race is still extremely close, but the lead Braley has seems to be stable.

Some of the best news comes from Colorado....with Udall having a full 3.7% average lead over Gardner and the three most recent polls showing a lead of +2%, +4%, and +6% (and a yougov poll with Udall leading +3%). This was one of the closest races in the country just a month ago, but Udall has maintained a lead throughout, so it'll be an uphill battle for Gardner.

The two areas where the GOP is on the gain are Georgia and especially Kentucky, where the polling has been pretty harsh for the two Dems. I don't see pickups in those two states as likely anymore unfortunately.

If Kansas goes to Orman I can totally see this being the map outcome in November:

I did a low down on this at my senate thread yesterday:

2014 battle for control of the US Senate Page 5 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

 

[JakeStarkey]

Yes, that is exactly what the corporate elites want: them controlling the state.

They do now and have for some time.

Where have you been?

Not completely, but, yes, as Bernie Sanders says, we are heading toward an oligarchy where a very few wealthy families will rule us.

I did not know you were a socialist.

 

[gipper]

Yes, that is exactly what the corporate elites want: them controlling the state.

They do now and have for some time.

Where have you been?

Not completely, but, yes, as Bernie Sanders says, we are heading toward an oligarchy where a very few wealthy families will rule us.

I did not know you were a socialist.

So...only socialists see that our nation is a oligarchy. I guess in their small minds, it could be possible. However that would mean they fail to understand that leftism with all its terrible actions and consequences, is responsible for the mess we are in. They want more leftism, which will only make matters worse. But no one would confuse a socialist with an intelligent life form.

You know I am the opposite of a socialist. I want to eliminate the state altogether and you want to expand it to encompass everything. See the difference?

 

[JakeStarkey]

So you are a communist anarcho. Ok.

 

[Nyvin]

Two different polls show Jeanne Shaheen back on track...with her leading +5% and +7%. I strongly expected this even after everyone was saying the race was "narrowing". In reality it was just a typical post-primary bump for Brown that quickly leveled out.

There was a Arkansas poll with Pryor at +2%...but I'm not sure it means much, I think this state will go to the GOP most likely.

 

[JakeStarkey]

47 to 45 (GOP to Dem)

Red: Arkansas, Alaska, Georgia
Blue: Colorado, IA, New Hampshire, North Carolina
Independent: Kansas (Dorothy brought magic )

I think Orman will caucus with the pubs, tell Cruz "you, dude, are an asshole) and force McConnell to the center.

So once again Boehner gets to rein in the few TPM yahoos that will be left in his caucus.

 

[BreezeWood]

Koch brothers-backed group ties Kansas independent to Obama TheHill

Republicans have made clear their strategy to defend Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who’s trailed Orman in multiple recent polls, centers on defining Orman as a closet Democrat beholden to the national party and President Obama.

.
maybe it will be the pubs themselves that make Orman think twice about joining their side if he wins ...

.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Reality is make believe in politics.

The GOP if it means majority will offer a human sacrifice of healthmyths and Jroc to get Orman into the fold.

 

[pepperpot]

47 to 45 (GOP to Dem)

Red: Arkansas, Alaska, Georgia
Blue: Colorado, IA, New Hampshire, North Carolina
Independent: Kansas (Dorothy brought magic )

I think Orman will caucus with the pubs, tell Cruz "you, dude, are an asshole) and force McConnell to the center.

So once again Boehner gets to rein in the few TPM yahoos that will be left in his caucus.

But the pubs will surely get SD,WV and MT. That already puts them at 48 I think. If they get AK, AR and GA as you say then that puts them over 50. They might get KY as well which will put them over. Angus King said he will caucus with pubs and I suspect Orman will too. That gives them majority by a wider margin. Any other surprise states like NH, CO or IA puts them well over. Debates are coming up so polling after that will tell the bigger story.