Gold Crown Politics, Election Prediction Map.

[Lumpy 1]

I wish someone would pop a cork on Elizabeth Warren.

What a moron.

For Warren it’s the same sad speech different day .. then back to the top 1% income and her sad life of suffering in her mansions and worldwide travels at the taxpayers expense.

 

[HikerGuy83]

But the people, the VOTERS, seem to revel in it, seem to enjoy it They don't stand up and demand change

That is what happens when you've allowed yourself to get spoiled and soft (which is what we have).

We are to entitled and to hung up on money.

That applies to most everybody.

 

[Mister Iggy]

Trump crushes Harris in latest poll..

 

[Independent thinker]

I wish someone would pop a cork on Elizabeth Warren.

What a moron.

At least put one in her mouth.

 

[Independent thinker]

A lot of those states are about 50/50 and could go either way. I wouldn't count my chickens on any state where Trump only leads by a little.

 

[JohnDB]

A lot of those states are about 50/50 and could go either way. I wouldn't count my chickens on any state where Trump only leads by a little.

Generally speaking,
From all the elections I've tracked, Republicans do better than the polls suggest. Even up to election night. Now occasionally there are surprises in a FEW precincts....which suggests as has been recently proven. But...for the most partthe tradition is that Republicans always come out several points higher than polling suggests.

There used to be a guy on election night news coverage that knew so many states by precincts and counts and their tendencies....and he could, almost to the vote, tell you what was going to come out of each precinct. And from this kind of predictive modeling he did in his head (it was spooky how accurate he was and how much he knew) he could predict the winner while the votes were being counted on election night.

But they quit having him on television because he killed ratings. When people knew the winner they stopped watching. LOL. He is still around but never on camera. And exit polling practices have seen some "updates" when he disagreed with the exit polls. Which was funny as all get out when the votes were counted and huge variances were found between exit polls and actual votes but votes and this one guy were on the money.

There's so much going on...kinda weird IMHO. Because I'm thinking that some people need better lives than that...but it makes them happy.

 

[bendog]

Right... someone makes an election model in order to try and pretend Trump will win every state... what a crock of shit.

What's funny is that if you look at a "real" 270 site/map .... it's still too close to even contemplate.

 

[Independent thinker]

Generally speaking,
From all the elections I've tracked, Republicans do better than the polls suggest. Even up to election night. Now occasionally there are surprises in a FEW precincts....which suggests as has been recently proven. But...for the most partthe tradition is that Republicans always come out several points higher than polling suggests.

There used to be a guy on election night news coverage that knew so many states by precincts and counts and their tendencies....and he could, almost to the vote, tell you what was going to come out of each precinct. And from this kind of predictive modeling he did in his head (it was spooky how accurate he was and how much he knew) he could predict the winner while the votes were being counted on election night.

But they quit having him on television because he killed ratings. When people knew the winner they stopped watching. LOL. He is still around but never on camera. And exit polling practices have seen some "updates" when he disagreed with the exit polls. Which was funny as all get out when the votes were counted and huge variances were found between exit polls and actual votes but votes and this one guy were on the money.

There's so much going on...kinda weird IMHO. Because I'm thinking that some people need better lives than that...but it makes them happy.

I wouldn't take this election for granted.

 

[HikerGuy83]

A lot of those states are about 50/50 and could go either way. I wouldn't count my chickens on any state where Trump only leads by a little.

They need to work hard on:

1. Getting clear on Trump's policies.
2. Revealing what a policy mess Harris is.

 

[frigidweirdo]

What's funny is that if you look at a "real" 270 site/map .... it's still too close to even contemplate.

"real" being "it says what I want it to say"?

 

[JohnDB]

I wouldn't take this election for granted.

Exactly.
This is going to come down to the "get out the vote" campaigns and energy of voters. Meaning actually getting voters to the polling locations instead of just thinking they don't need to go because "there's plenty of margin".

This lack of energy and lack of get out the vote campaigns has done in more than one candidate who had the margin to win IF their supporters had actually bothered to vote.

And with Kamala being late to the party, lack of published platform, and the disorganized mess her campaign is in....she has a chance at being humiliated on election night.

Many campaigns have debts that get covered by donations after the election....it's hard to fundraise for a lower. And the Primary is usually a fundraising tour as well as campaigning experience. The Democrats are likely behind in fundraising. Which is directly going to cause problems for the gotv campaigns. Phones, phone workers, passenger van rentals, gas, drivers and all sundry items require cash. Rent? Meh, printers?meh....banquets? Cash in advance. Just saying....it's expensive

 

[Independent thinker]

Exactly.
This is going to come down to the "get out the vote" campaigns and energy of voters. Meaning actually getting voters to the polling locations instead of just thinking they don't need to go because "there's plenty of margin".

This lack of energy and lack of get out the vote campaigns has done in more than one candidate who had the margin to win IF their supporters had actually bothered to vote.

And with Kamala being late to the party, lack of published platform, and the disorganized mess her campaign is in....she has a chance at being humiliated on election night.

Many campaigns have debts that get covered by donations after the election....it's hard to fundraise for a lower. And the Primary is usually a fundraising tour as well as campaigning experience. The Democrats are likely behind in fundraising. Which is directly going to cause problems for the gotv campaigns. Phones, phone workers, passenger van rentals, gas, drivers and all sundry items require cash. Rent? Meh, printers?meh....banquets? Cash in advance. Just saying....it's expensive

Personally, I hate the "get out the vote" strategy. Why don't we try and influence the minds of the middle and independents and get them out to vote for our side? They are actually the ones who determines who wins.

 

[JohnDB]

Personally, I hate the "get out the vote" strategy. Why don't we try and influence the minds of the middle and independents and get them out to vote for our side? They are actually the ones who determines who wins.

Getting someone to change their mind is a herculean task and all the campaigning up to this point is to do just that.
With school back in session that's mostly been accomplished.

At this point there really is not anyone who has not made a choice .
However, to get someone to go out of their way despite their busy schedule to act on that choice is a lot more difficult.

People have to schedule in an extra trip to the polling location, fill out a ballot and follow ALL the steps required if mailing it in.

It takes no effort to claim one side or the other....these campaigns are all about actions which are more difficult. Less glamorous and gruelling....but highly effective. Also where most of the shenanigans used to be found as busses and vans took people to various places all over a city, told a new name each time to claim and they would vote again and again for people who are deceased or never vote.

 

[initforme]

It's going to be razor close no matter what polls say. I strongly believe that means the nation is strong.

 

[Independent thinker]

Getting someone to change their mind is a herculean task and all the campaigning up to this point is to do just that.
With school back in session that's mostly been accomplished.

At this point there really is not anyone who has not made a choice .
However, to get someone to go out of their way despite their busy schedule to act on that choice is a lot more difficult.

People have to schedule in an extra trip to the polling location, fill out a ballot and follow ALL the steps required if mailing it in.

It takes no effort to claim one side or the other....these campaigns are all about actions which are more difficult. Less glamorous and gruelling....but highly effective. Also where most of the shenanigans used to be found as busses and vans took people to various places all over a city, told a new name each time to claim and they would vote again and again for people who are deceased or never vote.

I'm not talking about getting someone to change their mind. I'm talking about going after the many in the middle and independents who are persuadable. These are the people who determine who wins. I just read today that 25% of Americans aren't either democrat or Republican.

 

[JohnDB]

I'm not talking about getting someone to change their mind. I'm talking about going after the many in the middle and independents who are persuadable. These are the people who determine who wins. I just read today that 25% of Americans aren't either democrat or Republican.

Yes, and at this point most people have already decided. And this is where Harris has really failed because she has had no published platform. Only rhetoric and mud slinging Trump derangement syndrome.

Of those independants who will actually vote less than 2% remain undecided of the 20% of total voters. Not enough to swing one way or another.

We are 70 days out. The rest of the campaign is about gaining energy for the independant but decided voters and cementing their choices.
Just so they show up to vote.

It hits a fever pitch the closer we get to voting day. Which absentee voting opens up in a few weeks.

A debate between the two might sway a few unfirmly decided voters. But in most General Elections the margin is always tight. (Reagan had a huge win over Mondale with 65% or some ridiculously high percentage)

B. Clinton seemed to win big but he never got 50% of the raw vote.

 

[Independent thinker]

Yes, and at this point most people have already decided. And this is where Harris has really failed because she has had no published platform. Only rhetoric and mud slinging Trump derangement syndrome.

Of those independants who will actually vote less than 2% remain undecided of the 20% of total voters. Not enough to swing one way or another.

We are 70 days out. The rest of the campaign is about gaining energy for the independant but decided voters and cementing their choices.
Just so they show up to vote.

It hits a fever pitch the closer we get to voting day. Which absentee voting opens up in a few weeks.

A debate between the two might sway a few unfirmly decided voters. But in most General Elections the margin is always tight. (Reagan had a huge win over Mondale with 65% or some ridiculously high percentage)

B. Clinton seemed to win big but he never got 50% of the raw vote.

Depends on what you mean by "most" people. Yes, most people have decided but there are still millions in the middle who could change their vote one way or the other. While many of those might be leaning one way, leaning means they are just leaning and can be persuaded. And, we need to make a permanent case with these people, not just for this election. There are 65% of Americans who say the country is going in the wrong direction and we need to remind these people it is democrats who have put us there and not only is Harris a democrat, she is a progressive socialist, which is even worse. It would be a mistake to let the other side reach out to these people while we merely try to get out the vote.

By the way, I've got two different threads on here basically asking lefties why Americans should vote for Harris and not one lefty can come up with a reason other than she ain't Trump. That means there are many in the middle who can't think of a reason to vote for her either, which means we need to reach out to these people.

 

[JohnDB]

Depends on what you mean by "most" people. Yes, most people have decided but there are still millions in the middle who could change their vote one way or the other. While many of those might be leaning one way, leaning means they are just leaning and can be persuaded. And, we need to make a permanent case with these people, not just for this election. There are 65% of Americans who say the country is going in the wrong direction and we need to remind these people it is democrats who have put us there and not only is Harris a democrat, she is a progressive socialist, which is even worse.

By "most people" I'm not talking about those who usually vote D&R but independent voters who switch back and forth.

The middle is who I was referring to. They have already chosen.

Despite the huge amount of campaigning going on right now...the election is pretty much decided. There's always room for surprises. "Dewy Wins" was a newspaper that printed the headlines too early because even though Dewy won in the polls he had zero "get out the vote" campaign money....and lost the election because of it. He had been ahead...comfortably ahead. For months he rode high. But when it came time to vote his supporters did not bother to show up at the polls.

Campaign professionals have been around for a long time. Understood the science of how people make choices and when.

The "middle" have made a choice but it needs the cementing to cause them to act. Otherwise it's another "Dewy Wins" scenario.

 

[Mister Iggy]

 

[schmidlap]

Gold Crown Politics, Election Prediction Map

This YouTube site was posted by jackflash on another thread a few days back, I’m giving it its own thread. It’s predicting a Trump win. I think it’s right. And i will update the thread as the predictions continue through to the election.

Quote: “In this video, I go over my updated forecast for the 2024 election cycle projecting a sizable victory for former president Donald J. Trump.”



This next video is from 2 days ago where he goes into a explanation of his election model for the predictions.

Returning to reality:

CONVICTED CRIMINAL GEEZER​

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