Global Cooling Chills Summer

[elvis]

a Liar and a hypocrite....your concessions are duly noted. No one has stated that at some points in history the earth has cooled and warmed. I think the point of disagreement is to do with the relevance of man's role in said heating and cooling.

Again, if you look at the posts I replied to, you will see the deniers claimed that either there was global cooling for the last decade even though the decade of 1999 to 2008 was the warmest in the history of direct instrument measurement, or we've been cooling since 2001 even though every year after 2001 has been warmer than 2001. Deniers then went on to challenge the accuracy of the measurements and I pointed out the flaws in their arguments. It was you and code who were trying to change the debate over the accuracy of the UAH data to veganism, not me.

Deniers of what? AGW correct?
Disproving The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Problem « Watts Up With That?
AGW
A theory has been proposed that human activity over about the last 150 years has caused a significant rise in Earth’s average temperature. The mechanism claimed is based on an increased greenhouse effect caused by anthropogenic increases in CO2 from burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, cement manufacture, and also from increases in CH4 from farm animals and other causes.


Veganism would have a lot to do with this debate, since CH4 is 20 times more likely to trap heat. Unfortunately, you being the hypocrite you are, would like to play stupid that you alone could eliminate 1.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions a year by becoming a vegan, according to the IPCC. But do continue to focus on others its entertaining...

Maybe he could just put his head up a cow's ass?

 

[Sinatra]

 

[code1211]

Again, I have made no claims about CO2 or CH4. I have merely pointed out that deniers are lying when they claim Global Cooling for the last decade. Obviously I have proven my argument so thoroughly that deniers have no choice but to change the subject.
Your white flag is accepted. Thank you.

a Liar and a hypocrite....your concessions are duly noted. No one has stated that at some points in history the earth has cooled and warmed. I think the point of disagreement is to do with the relevance of man's role in said heating and cooling.

Again, if you look at the posts I replied to, you will see the deniers claimed that either there was global cooling for the last decade even though the decade of 1999 to 2008 was the warmest in the history of direct instrument measurement, or we've been cooling since 2001 even though every year after 2001 has been warmer than 2001. Deniers then went on to challenge the accuracy of the measurements and I pointed out the flaws in their arguments. It was you and code who were trying to change the debate over the accuracy of the UAH data to veganism, not me.

Try this one on. This is a good article about the predictions by the IPCC, GISS and the revered Dr. Hansen on the warming of the oceans. They made projections that can be measured against the Argos Buoys.

Their projections showed warming and plenty of it. The data from the argo buoys showed cooling. See graph here:

http://climatesci.org/wp-content/uploads/dipuccio-2.jpg

See the whole article here:

The Global Warming Hypothesis and Ocean Heat « Watts Up With That?

The problem with data is that it's pretty unforgiving in its simplicity. GISS continues to wander further from the reality that is revealed by the data. The land stations are thick in their density, but only about 20% of them are acceptable by the standards that GISS sets for themselves. The readings of all continue to be used.

The ocean readings which you seem to adore are contradicted by the Argos Buoys, but the adoration continues.

I suppose it's a shame to waste a good misconception.

 

[Old Rocks]

Does ocean cooling prove global warming has ended?


Willis 2008 shows a cooling trend since 2004, while Leuliette shows a warming trend. The primary difference between the two is found early in the Argo record, when there were fewer Argo buoys deployed. Leuliette 2009 suggests the discrepancy between the two seems to be due to poor sampling and differences in how the data was handled. But which dataset is more accurate?

When confronted with two papers offering different results, a useful referree is an independently determined dataset. As well as using Argo data, Cazenave 2009 creates two independent estimates of ocean heat. Sea level rise is comprised of two components: mass change due to melting ice and steric sea level rise due to changes in ocean density. Thermal expansion is the main driver of steric changes (salinity is also a minor factor) so steric sea level rise is another measure of total ocean heat.

The first reconstruction uses satellite gravity measurements to calculate the change in ocean mass. They then subtract ocean mass sea level rise from total sea level rise to calculate the steric sea level rise. The second reconstruction uses satellite gravity measurements to calculate the change in mass of land ice and land water. The sea level rise from this contribution is subtracted from the total sea level rise to obtain another estimate of steric sea level rise. Both reconstructions show a statistically significant warming trend.

Argo offer two data streams - real time where the data is available almost instantaneously and delayed which undergoes more rigorous checks. Cazenave uses only measurements with the highest quality control settings (an approach the folk at Surfacestations would surely approve of). The Argo trend closely matches the other two reconstructions.


Figure 4: Three reconstructions of steric sea level, with seasonal element removed. Blue curve estimated from the difference between altimetry and GRACE-based ocean mass. Green curve estimated from the difference between satellite altimetry and total land ice plus land waters contribution. Red curve: ARGO-based estimate (Cazenave 2009).

In climate discussions, the most common error is focusing on a single piece of the puzzle while ignoring the big picture. The ocean cooling meme commits this error twofold. Firstly, it scrutinises 6 years worth of data while ignoring the last 40 years of ocean warming. Secondly, it hangs its hat on one particular reconstruction that shows cooling, while other results and independent analyses indicate slight warming.

The bottom line is there is still uncertainty over the reconstruction of ocean heat. Generally, the various reconstructions show the same long term trends but don't always agree when it comes to inter-decadal variability. The uncertainty means one cannot conclude with confidence that the ocean is cooling. Independent analysis seem to indicate that over last half dozen years, the ocean has shown less warming than the long term trend but nevertheless, a statistically significant warming trend.

 

[Old Rocks]

Jennifer Marohasy » Correcting Ocean Cooling: NASAChanges Data to Fit the Models Adjusts Data from Buoys


The devices are manufactured to free-fall through the water at a known rate; scientists infer the depth of the temperature measurements by the time lapsed after the sensor hits the water. They have been used by the U.S. Navy and oceanographers since the 1960s.

“Basically, I used the sea level data as a bridge to the in situ [ocean-based] data,” explains Willis, comparing them to one another figuring out where they didn’t agree. “First, I identified some new Argo floats that were giving bad data; they were too cool compared to other sources of data during the time period. It wasn’t a large number of floats, but the data were bad enough, so that when I tossed them, most of the cooling went away. But there was still a little bit, so I kept digging and digging.”

The digging led him to the data from the expendable temperature sensors, the XBTs. A month before, Willis had seen a paper by Viktor Gouretski and Peter Koltermann that showed a comparison of XBT data collected over the past few decades to temperatures obtained in the same ocean areas by more accurate techniques, such as bottled water samples collected during research cruises. Compared to more accurate observations, the XBTs were too warm. The problem was more pronounced at some points in time than others.

The Gouretski paper hadn’t rung any alarm bells right away, explains Willis, “because I knew from the earlier analysis that there was a big cooling signal in Argo all by itself. It was there even if I didn’t use the XBT data. That’s part of the reason that we thought it was real in the first place,” explains Willis.

But when he factored the too-warm XBT measurements into his ocean warming time series, the last of the ocean cooling went away. Later, Willis teamed up with Susan Wijffels of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization (CSIRO) and other ocean scientists to diagnose the XBT problems in detail and come up with a way to correct them.

So the new Argo data were too cold, and the older XBT data were too warm, and together, they made it seem like the ocean had cooled,” says Willis. The February evening he discovered the mistake, he says, is “burned into my memory.” He was supposed to fly to Colorado that weekend to give a talk on “ocean cooling” to prominent climate researchers. Instead, he’d be talking about how it was all a mistake.

A scientist could hardly be expected to be happy about finding a mistake in his work after he published it. But if you have to watch your research go down in flames, it may help to regard it as an offering on the sacrificial fire of scientific progress. In the case of “ocean cooling,” Willis has plenty of reasons to consider the sacrifice worth it.

The first payoff for finding and fixing the XBT errors was that it allowed scientists to reconcile a stubborn and puzzling mismatch between climate model simulations of ocean warming for the past half century and observations. The second was that it helped explain why sea level rise between 1961-2003 was larger than scientists had previously been able to account for.

Much of what scientists know about how ocean heat content has changed over the past half century comes from the work of Sydney Levitus, the director of NOAA’s Ocean Climate Laboratory in Silver Spring, Maryland, and his colleagues. In the early 1990s, the United Nations Education and Scientific Organization (UNESCO) asked Levitus to undertake a scientific rescue mission.

 

[Sinatra]

Brrr...

 

[Old Rocks]

I am predicting, within 5 years, two years of tempertures that will exceed those of 1998 and 2005. By all your graphs and other nonsense, this cannot happen. So when it does, I will remind you of your foolishness.

 

[elvis]

I am predicting, within 5 years, two years of tempertures that will exceed those of 1998 and 2005. By all your graphs and other nonsense, this cannot happen. So when it does, I will remind you of your foolishness.

except you'll be in the Alzheimer's unit in five years, and even more senile than you are now.

 

[KittenKoder]

I am predicting, within 5 years, two years of tempertures that will exceed those of 1998 and 2005. By all your graphs and other nonsense, this cannot happen. So when it does, I will remind you of your foolishness.

except you'll be in the Alzheimer's unit in five years, and even more senile than you are now.

Not to mention that when it doesn't happen he will deny ever making this statement.

 

[elvis]

I am predicting, within 5 years, two years of tempertures that will exceed those of 1998 and 2005. By all your graphs and other nonsense, this cannot happen. So when it does, I will remind you of your foolishness.

except you'll be in the Alzheimer's unit in five years, and even more senile than you are now.

Not to mention that when it doesn't happen he will deny ever making this statement.

or won't remember making it.

 

[Chris]

I am predicting, within 5 years, two years of tempertures that will exceed those of 1998 and 2005. By all your graphs and other nonsense, this cannot happen. So when it does, I will remind you of your foolishness.

The ice cap and the glaciers continue to melt, and CO2 level continues to rise.

When the Sun becomes active again the temps will rise even more.

And if the arctic methane kicks in, watch out.

 

[KittenKoder]

I am predicting, within 5 years, two years of tempertures that will exceed those of 1998 and 2005. By all your graphs and other nonsense, this cannot happen. So when it does, I will remind you of your foolishness.

The ice cap and the glaciers continue to melt, and CO2 level continues to rise.

When the Sun becomes active again the temps will rise even more.

And if the arctic methane kicks in, watch out.

What is the purpose of the glacial ice?

 

[Sinatra]

Brrr...

Put on a sweater folks...

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL. Going to remind you of this crap, old boy.

 

[ozzmdj]

More for you kooks........Global Cooling Chills Summer 2009 by Deroy Murdock on National Review Online

 

[Old Rocks]

Ozzy, old boy, for your benefit, I will repeat my prediction of two years in the next five that exceed 1998 and 2005. When that happens, you who deny reality will have to come up with another bloody lie to cover your asses.

And June, 2009 was the second hottest june on record.


NCDC: Second hottest June on record — and once El Nino really kicks in, expect global temperatures “to threaten previous record highs” « Climate Progress


NCDC: Second hottest June on record — and once El Nino really kicks in, expect global temperatures “to threaten previous record highs”
July 16, 2009
Fast on the heels of the fourth warmest May on record, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center reports:

Based on preliminary data, the globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was the second warmest on record for June, and the January-June year-to-date tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest on record.

NCDC notes that the ocean temperature was the warmest on record. In fact, it was a full 0.11°F warmer than the 2005 record. This is almost certainly the new El Niño on top of the long-term warming trend (see NOAA says “El Niño arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10″ — and that means record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record).

And no, I don’t think the monthly data tell us much about the climate. But I know reporting it annoys the deniers. Also, the deniers have been touting the supposedly cool June temperatures over parts of this country (although the lower 48 in fact had the 49th warmest June on record, and Alaska had the 21st warmest). “Across parts of Africa and most of Eurasia,” however, “temperatures were 3°C (5°F) or more above average.” Such warming may be coming to the US later in the year. It typically takes several months for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to impact global temperatures.

 

[Old Rocks]

More for you kooks........Global Cooling Chills Summer 2009 by Deroy Murdock on National Review Online

By the way, the National Review has about as much credibility on scientific subjects as the National Enquirer, or better yet, the Weekly World. Wingnut fruitcakes ignoring science to make political points.

 

[edthecynic]

a Liar and a hypocrite....your concessions are duly noted. No one has stated that at some points in history the earth has cooled and warmed. I think the point of disagreement is to do with the relevance of man's role in said heating and cooling.

Again, if you look at the posts I replied to, you will see the deniers claimed that either there was global cooling for the last decade even though the decade of 1999 to 2008 was the warmest in the history of direct instrument measurement, or we've been cooling since 2001 even though every year after 2001 has been warmer than 2001. Deniers then went on to challenge the accuracy of the measurements and I pointed out the flaws in their arguments. It was you and code who were trying to change the debate over the accuracy of the UAH data to veganism, not me.

Deniers of what? AGW correct?
Disproving The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Problem « Watts Up With That?
AGW
A theory has been proposed that human activity over about the last 150 years has caused a significant rise in Earth’s average temperature. The mechanism claimed is based on an increased greenhouse effect caused by anthropogenic increases in CO2 from burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, cement manufacture, and also from increases in CH4 from farm animals and other causes.


Veganism would have a lot to do with this debate, since CH4 is 20 times more likely to trap heat. Unfortunately, you being the hypocrite you are, would like to play stupid that you alone could eliminate 1.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions a year by becoming a vegan, according to the IPCC. But do continue to focus on others its entertaining...

You CON$ just make this crap up completely out of the blue!
Please provide a link to where strict vegetarians produce 1.5 billion tons more CO2 per year than vegans. And you deniers wonder why you have no credibility with honest people!!!

And as far as your link goes, they link to a chart and under the chart is a link to the source of the chart and the source of the chart includes this disclaimer about the chart, but the dishonest author of your link deliberately left out the disclaimer preserving the misleading nature of the chart.

We have recently changed the way that the smoothed time series of data were calculated. Data for 2008 were being used in the smoothing process as if they represented an accurate esimate of the year as a whole. This is not the case and owing to the unusually cool global average temperature in January 2008, it looked as though smoothed global average temperatures had dropped markedly in recent years, which is misleading.

 

[Sinatra]

More for you kooks........Global Cooling Chills Summer 2009 by Deroy Murdock on National Review Online

The warmers are not gonna like that!!

 

[edthecynic]

No one has stated that at some points in history the earth has cooled and warmed. I think the point of disagreement is to do with the relevance of man's role in said heating and cooling.

More for you kooks........Global Cooling Chills Summer 2009 by Deroy Murdock on National Review Online
" Earth’s temperatures continue a chilling trend that began eleven years ago."

The warmers are not gonna like that!!

Careful, you are making a liar of jreeves with that link!

BTW, the last decade is the warmest decade since the direct instrument measurement of temperature began over 100 years ago. Some "chilling trend!"