Get Your Furnace Checked: Third weakest solar cycle since 1755

[Old Rocks]

Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks


Abstract
[1] Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures over the past 8000 years have been paced by the slow decrease in summer insolation resulting from the precession of the equinoxes. However, the causes of superposed century-scale cold summer anomalies, of which the Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most extreme, remain debated, largely because the natural forcings are either weak or, in the case of volcanism, short lived. Here we present precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD, followed by a substantial intensification 1430–1455 AD. Intervals of sudden ice growth coincide with two of the most volcanically perturbed half centuries of the past millennium. A transient climate model simulation shows that explosive volcanism produces abrupt summer cooling at these times, and that cold summers can be maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed. Our results suggest that the onset of the LIA can be linked to an unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg. The persistence of cold summers is best explained by consequent sea-ice/ocean feedbacks during a hemispheric summer insolation minimum; large changes in solar irradiance are not required.

Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks

Full article at link.

 

[flacaltenn]

A sun that weak -- wipes out a full 1/3 of the CO2 forcing function since 1880s.

No, it would barely make any difference.

On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth

If it arrives, it's the NEXT solar cycle. Mark your calendar. Pray you live to experience it..

Deniers said that in the previous solar cycle too. And the one before that. And so on.

BTW Squidward -- NEVER BEEN a thermal equilibrium or transient from "volcanic activity" EVER credited for more 3 or 5 years. The LIA was close to 80years long..

BTW, there can be more than one volcano that erupts.

Of course -- you've never grown out of SkepShitScience. com .. ONLY place you can find graphs looking for a legitimate data set on the planet that confirm your religious beliefs. Along with their patented "atom bomb" counter.

"More than one volcano" ---- great.. 80 years of cool because of ( I figure) about 10 major volcanoes. Where did ya get that fantasy??? Was it SkepShitScience.com????

Volcanoes May Have Sparked Little Ice Age

Miller and colleagues came to these conclusions by looking at radiocarbon dates — based on how much of the radioactive form of carbon they contain — from dead plants revealed by melting ice on Baffin Island, in the Canadian Arctic. Their analysis found that many plants at both high and low altitudes died between A.D. 1275 and A.D. 1300 — evidence that Baffin Island froze over suddenly. Many plants also appeared to have died at around A.D. 1450, an indication of a second major cooling.

These periods coincide with two of the most volcanically active half centuries in the past millennium, according to the researchers. [History's Biggest Volcanic Eruptions]

They also found that the annual layers in sediment cores from a glacial lake linked with an ice cap in Iceland suddenly became thicker, indicating increased erosion caused by the expansion of the ice cap in the late 13th century and in the 15th century .

"This gave us a great deal more confidence that there was a major perturbation to the Northern Hemisphere climate near the end of the 13th century," Miller said.

Simulations using a climate model showed that several large, closely spaced eruptions could have cooled the Northern Hemisphere enough to spark sea-ice growth and the subsequent feedback loop.

It's unlikely decreased solar radiation, a separate theory to explain the Little Ice Age, played a role, according to the researchers.

The research will appear Tuesday (Jan. 31) in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

A series of major volcanic eruptions in concert with a Maunder Minimum would definately affect the climate.

Those eruptions are too early to have "sparked" a temp depression of 100 or 200 years -- lasting into the late 18th Century.

The real cause of ANY COOLING on the planet can only come from the PRIMARY heat pump. Which is the Sun. It's the ONLY primary driver of Ocean temps, and when the Sun goes BLANK with no spots, no 11 year cycles --- it's all heat escaping to the sky-- every DAY -- all the time for almost 100 years. Volcanoes or NO volcanoes....

 

[Old Rocks]

Interesting, your graph shows we should have already experienced a cooling, instead of the three record temperature years in a row we just experienced.

 

[skookerasbil]

For curious readers of this thread who might be inclined to be suckered by terms like "warmer", please note.....the climate crusaders are talking about tiny increases in average temperature and btw, dont at all reference that in some parts of the world, we are seeing scary decreases in temperatures, for example, in New York tomorrow, it is going to be a high of 68 degrees........in mid-June!!. Many scientists now believe that the earth is indeed entering an 100 years "ice age", particularly scientists in Russia. Oh......but they don't count to the climate crusaders because they say the aren't "real" scientists.

Do your own research.........do your own research on the "consensus" and what that really means in the world of science. You might end up very surprised at what you find.

 

[Billy_Bob]

"A late spring snowstorm is expected in far western Wyoming Monday night into Tuesday, as a strong low-pressure center moves northeast from Idaho, across Yellowstone National Park and into Montana.

According to an alert from the National Weather Service at 3:37 p.m. Sunday, the snow level will drop to roughly 8,000 feet Monday evening before reaching the valley floor by Tuesday morning."

lol.... you cant make this stuff up... 300% of normal and still snowing, in mid June...

June Snowstorm Expected in Western Wyoming Early This Week

Jackson hole received over 1 foot in the valley.. The mountains received over 26 inches.. On June 12th-13th.. It broke all records for a late snowfall.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Interesting, your graph shows we should have already experienced a cooling, instead of the three record temperature years in a row we just experienced.

Actually, if you use the unaltered data, we are already cooling by -1 deg C globally. Only the infilled and adjusted crap is showing warming.

 

[skookerasbil]

"A late spring snowstorm is expected in far western Wyoming Monday night into Tuesday, as a strong low-pressure center moves northeast from Idaho, across Yellowstone National Park and into Montana.

According to an alert from the National Weather Service at 3:37 p.m. Sunday, the snow level will drop to roughly 8,000 feet Monday evening before reaching the valley floor by Tuesday morning."

lol.... you cant make this stuff up... 300% of normal and still snowing, in mid June...

June Snowstorm Expected in Western Wyoming Early This Week

Jackson hole received over 1 foot in the valley.. The mountains received over 26 inches.. On June 12th-13th.. It broke all records for a late snowfall.

..........shit.....those people need some global warming!

 

[Billy_Bob]

"A late spring snowstorm is expected in far western Wyoming Monday night into Tuesday, as a strong low-pressure center moves northeast from Idaho, across Yellowstone National Park and into Montana.

According to an alert from the National Weather Service at 3:37 p.m. Sunday, the snow level will drop to roughly 8,000 feet Monday evening before reaching the valley floor by Tuesday morning."

lol.... you cant make this stuff up... 300% of normal and still snowing, in mid June...

June Snowstorm Expected in Western Wyoming Early This Week

Jackson hole received over 1 foot in the valley.. The mountains received over 26 inches.. On June 12th-13th.. It broke all records for a late snowfall.

..........shit.....those people need some global warming!

The city mayor is an idiot who is embracing the Paris accord and AGW.. I say screw them... bury that shit hole in ice...

 

[skookerasbil]

"A late spring snowstorm is expected in far western Wyoming Monday night into Tuesday, as a strong low-pressure center moves northeast from Idaho, across Yellowstone National Park and into Montana.

According to an alert from the National Weather Service at 3:37 p.m. Sunday, the snow level will drop to roughly 8,000 feet Monday evening before reaching the valley floor by Tuesday morning."

lol.... you cant make this stuff up... 300% of normal and still snowing, in mid June...

June Snowstorm Expected in Western Wyoming Early This Week

Jackson hole received over 1 foot in the valley.. The mountains received over 26 inches.. On June 12th-13th.. It broke all records for a late snowfall.

..........shit.....those people need some global warming!

The city mayor is an idiot who is embracing the Paris accord and AGW.. I say screw them... bury that shit hole in ice...

lol........Paris is dead anyway without US involvement. Our contribution was the key so now its a non-starter. They'll come up with some fake excuse but it now goes nowhere.

Trump.............WINNING! Im still laughing about this Billy. At this point, the analogy is he's kicked all these fruitcakes in the balls and is now standing over them farting right the fuck in their face!. Hey Billy............don't you think we need a Trump emoticon? Imagine that farting guy with Trump hair!!

 

[mamooth]

Those eruptions are too early to have "sparked" a temp depression of 100 or 200 years -- lasting into the late 18th Century

There were a series of them, leading to ice and ocean albedo feedbacks. And the CO2 levels dropped, and the low solar levels also played a part, as did the slow influence of the M. Cycles.

Which is the Sun. It's the ONLY primary driver of Ocean temps, and when the Sun goes BLANK with no spots, no 11 year cycles --- it's all heat escaping to the sky-- every DAY -- all the time for almost 100 years. Volcanoes or NO volcanoes....

Temperature began dropping around 1300. That doesn't correspond with the Maunder Mininum. It does correspond roughly with the Sporer Minimum, but there was a century of normal solar actively between the two lows, and temperatures did not recover. That's one way that "The sun is the only driver of climate" theory is disproved.

It's also disproved by how the warming occurs. If the solar changes were responsible, it would cause more warming during the day and during the summer. Instead, we see the opposite, more warming at night and during the winter. That's the signature of greenhouse gas induced warming.

Your graph showed temperature was correlated with solar output after the LIA and before the current warming, Fine, everyone agrees with that. As Rocks said, your graph doesn't explain the current climate. Solar output peaked 1960, and began dropping sharply around 2000, yet temperature has climbed steadily since 1970.

So, how can that be? You can try to claim the oceans are a low-pass filter, but that doesn't work. If such were the case, temperatures should have started increasing sharply around 1960, then gradually leveled out at new higher equilibrium. They didn't. They didn't increase at all at first, and then started increasing 10 years later, and then kept increasing, with no sign of leveling off. The climate isn't responding at all like a low-pass filter. Unless you want to say we're at the start of the climb, but that would imply a climate which is insanely sensitive to small amounts solar forcing, which is not observed in the historical record.

In any case, we measure ocean heat content. It's going up. The oceans are absorbing heat, not releasing it, so ocean heat storage can't account for the current rising temperatures.