I see so many more Trump signs than Biden signs (I live in a blue state). I see thousands of people excited to be at Trump rallies. I see barely anyone at Biden rallies. I see many more blacks talking positively about Trump than in 2016. Democrats I talked to don't really care for Joe Biden, but he's "not Trump". Whereas Trump voters want to vote for Trump. Huge difference. Seems to me Trump has a good chance to win. But it's 2020, we'll see.
Trump has about 42-44% of the country. His hardcore supporters are extremely enthusiastic about him. They are going to vote for him no matter what.
But they aren't big enough to win the election. In the last election, Trump won undecideds, who were about 13-14% of the electorate. Today, the number who are undecided is about half that.
Also, the number of people who either think Trump has done a good job or bad job has been remarkably stable. His approval ratings do not move much, maybe by a percent of two. That's never happened before. About half the population have consistently said they will never support him. People have made up their minds about him.
It's true that Trump appears to be doing better amongst Hispanics and black males, but he's doing worse amongst whites. Like every Republican before him since polling began asking the question, Trump won college-educated whites in 2016. Polling today has him trailing by double digits. He's getting hammered in the suburbs where he won last time. I live in an upscale, Republican suburban neighborhood. There are zero Trump signs here.
Finally, the percentage of non-college educated whites in the six swing states have declined by ~2% since 2016. If you overlay the demographics of 2020 onto the election of 2016, Hillary would have won WI MI and PA, which Trump won by a combined 77,000 votes.
That doesn't mean Trump can't win. Of course he can. But this isn't 2016. It's a different electorate and a different election.
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