I don't think we'll see >10% unemployment like we saw in 1981. Hopefully not the 7.4 of 92
The fed can't do anything about energy or even construction costs or food. It can cause people to spend less, but this is not 1978 when we killed inflation by basically killing the economy. This recession is largely a result of killing the economy. But it seems to me the supply chains are getting better. Slowly.
The fed CAN stop people from buying on credit. I think the feds funds rate is at 2.5 and Powell said further increases should be smaller. That's still not historically high, but we'll still see it on credit cards. But like you said, there will be small biz loses
I'm not seeing anything to save the dems, even though it's not ALL their own making. I don't see the gop cutting taxes for the top 1% being very beneficial. It won't cause inflation, but it will blow up the deficits further.
Hopefully a year from now inflation will be moderating, and people can get back to hating republicans over roe and dobbs. Pitchforks and Torches!