FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

[DigitalDrifter]

And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.

Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election?

Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model.1

The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. Other changes from 2020 are documented here. And an archive of the Biden-Trump forecast can be found here.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

 

[Concerned American]

And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

I'm not big on speculation, but if that happened, wouldn't Harris be the tie-breaker in the senate?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I'm not big on speculation, but if that happened, wouldn't Harris be the tie-breaker in the senate?

No

The house picks the President

The Senate, one vote per State, picks the VP

 

[Concerned American]

No

The house picks the President

The Senate, one vote per State, picks the VP

Sorry, I don't know where I got the idea that it dealt with the senate. SMFH. It's early here. LOL

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Sorry, I don't know where I got the idea that it dealt with the senate. SMFH. It's early here. LOL

I’m pretty sure it won’t come to that

 

[Dragonlady]

And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

I have been a Silver Subscriber throughout this election and have been bitterly disappointed by the lengths which Silver has gone to promote Trump as the likely winner based on his "models". Silver's algorhythms have downplayed Harris' rise and mansplained their way through a minefield of misogyny, flooding of polls from Republicans, and downplaying every Harris advance with the people, to consistently predict Trump having a chance here.

Most pollsters, being men, have completely discounted the outrage and anger felt by all women at seeing Roe overturned, and WOMEN DYING BECAUSE HOSPITALS CAN'T TREAT MISCARRIAGES.

To say the women are pissed would be the understatement of the year. REPUBLICANS ARE MURDERING PREGNANT WOMEN. How do you think the women are going to vote?

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Probably Harris.

 

[M14 Shooter]

I'm not big on speculation, but if that happened, wouldn't Harris be the tie-breaker in the senate?

The house picks the President.
Each state gets 1 vote.

 

[M14 Shooter]

I have been a Silver Subscriber throughout this election and have been bitterly disappointed by the lengths which Silver has gone to promote Trump as the likely winner based on his "models".

So?

 

[Paleman]

I have been a Silver Subscriber throughout this election and have been bitterly disappointed by the lengths which Silver has gone to promote Trump as the likely winner based on his "models". Silver's algorhythms have downplayed Harris' rise and mansplained their way through a minefield of misogyny, flooding of polls from Republicans, and downplaying every Harris advance with the people, to consistently predict Trump having a chance here.

Most pollsters, being men, have completely discounted the outrage and anger felt by all women at seeing Roe overturned, and WOMEN DYING BECAUSE HOSPITALS CAN'T TREAT MISCARRIAGES.

To say the women are pissed would be the understatement of the year. REPUBLICANS ARE MURDERING PREGNANT WOMEN. How do you think the women are going to vote?

If women are going to anoint Cumalla, based on ROE, while ignoring the fact that she is not qualified, I could care less how many meet their maker. Destroy my county and you are worthless to me.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The former AG of the 5th largest economy in the world, former Senator, and former VP is of course infinitely more qualified than the reality show host rapist charity thief felon ranked the worst president in history is.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Reversing Dobbs is not to "destroy my country."

 

[BrokeLoser]

I have been a Silver Subscriber throughout this election and have been bitterly disappointed by the lengths which Silver has gone to promote Trump as the likely winner based on his "models". Silver's algorhythms have downplayed Harris' rise and mansplained their way through a minefield of misogyny, flooding of polls from Republicans, and downplaying every Harris advance with the people, to consistently predict Trump having a chance here.

Most pollsters, being men, have completely discounted the outrage and anger felt by all women at seeing Roe overturned, and WOMEN DYING BECAUSE HOSPITALS CAN'T TREAT MISCARRIAGES.

To say the women are pissed would be the understatement of the year. REPUBLICANS ARE MURDERING PREGNANT WOMEN. How do you think the women are going to vote?

Did Republicans murder these women?

 

[luiza]

Harris reeling after the Guam , Marker result .

And downright miserable after seeing the 50% voter swing to Trump in Dixville Notch , New Hampshire

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

And just as sad for the immigrant males killed by American crazy males.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

If women are going to anoint Cumalla, based on ROE, while ignoring the fact that she is not qualified, I could care less how many meet their maker. Destroy my county and you are worthless to me.

She's qualified. She's not very bright, but on paper she is qualified.

 

[Independent thinker]

Harris reeling after the Guam , Marker result .

And downright miserable after seeing the 50% voter swing to Trump in Dixville Notch , New Hampshire

Guam knows which president is better for their survival. If Rocket man keeps it up, Democrats will condemn North Korea in the strongest possible terms. Guam knows that is total bullshit.

 

[Paleman]

Reversing Dobbs is not to "destroy my country."

Who said that? Not me. I said that voting, based on the reversal of ROE was akin to destroying this country. If that bitch wins and then serves as much as 8 years, we will be full-blown socialist.

 

[Concerned American]

Who said that? Not me. I said that voting, based on the reversal of ROE was akin to destroying this country. If that bitch wins and then serves as much as 8 years, we will be full-blown socialist.

Speaking Mandarin.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Who said that? Not me. I said that voting, based on the reversal of ROE was akin to destroying this country. If that bitch wins and then serves as much as 8 years, we will be full-blown socialist.

You implied that, so don't run away. We will never be socialist, clown.