Fed cuts rates

[kyzr]

No, we passed New debt already.
Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' is projected to add $3.4 trillion to the debt, budget office says

The BBB raised the cap $5T, true.

The BBB budget deficit was rescored by the CBO. Now they project $2.4T over 10-years, or $240b a year.

3 Key Takeaways From The CBO’s Report On The One Big Beautiful Bill

This article discusses what the CBO is and provides three key takeaways from their latest report estimating the economic impact of the Big Beautiful Bill.

www.forbes.com

The CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.

But the CBO estimate assumptions are very conservative, there are other savings to be had:
1. As the FED cuts interest rates the $1.1T interest is reduced by $300b for every 1% cut. Say 1% saves $300b.
2. DOGE savings was $200b if congress acts.
3. The assumed GDP was 1.8%, if Trump can get 3%, more tax revenue will be realized, Say $200b.

So a $240b deficit can become a $400b surplus, assuming the tariffs are ruled legal by the USSC.

 

[Elusivebutterfly]

If it's going south it's because of Trump.



Realtors won't stay with no sales. This cut isn't going to make people rush to buy.

No, life was affordable under Trump 1 despite the fact that the fed raised rates during his watch. They only seem to lower them for democrats. Anyway, the biden borrowing and covid consequences brought inflation up to 9%. We are not in that situation right now yet powell is reacting like it is. Furthermore, powell just admitted that the tarrifs will be a one time hit to inflation. Moreover, a lot of this is baked in including the rate he just cut. We won’t see anything come of it. Car loans aren’t coming down, they’re baked in too.

It seems to me that the fed and its group think attitude understand very little about the economy. The don’t account for AI and productivity either. I heard an analyst talk about reagan proving the opposite with productivity.

As powell spoke about the slowing economy, the market dropped. 50bp would have probably spooked the market, but i guess they have to wait till christmas to see doom for themselves.

The fed knows that the newly appointed member will inform trump of their dealings. They need to tread carefully now.

Oh, realtors will stay because they can afford to wiith all the money they made because there is no work for them elsewhere.

 

[pknopp]

The BBB raised the cap $5T, true.

The BBB budget deficit was rescored by the CBO. Now they project $2.4T over 10-years, or $240b a year.

3 Key Takeaways From The CBO’s Report On The One Big Beautiful Bill

This article discusses what the CBO is and provides three key takeaways from their latest report estimating the economic impact of the Big Beautiful Bill.

www.forbes.com

The CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.

But the CBO estimate assumptions are very conservative, there are other savings to be had:
1. As the FED cuts interest rates the $1.1T interest is reduced by $300b for every 1% cut. Say 1% saves $300b.
2. DOGE savings was $200b if congress acts.
3. The assumed GDP was 1.8%, if Trump can get 3%, more tax revenue will be realized, Say $200b.

So a $240b deficit can become a $400b surplus, assuming the tariffs are ruled legal by the USSC.

"If" lol

 

[pknopp]

No, life was affordable under Trump 1 despite the fact that the fed raised rates during his watch. They only seem to lower them for democrats. Anyway, the biden borrowing and covid consequences brought inflation up to 9%. We are not in that situation right now yet powell is reacting like it is. Furthermore, powell just admitted that the tarrifs will be a one time hit to inflation. Moreover, a lot of this is baked in including the rate he just cut. We won’t see anything come of it. Car loans aren’t coming down, they’re baked in too.

It seems to me that the fed and its group think attitude understand very little about the economy. The don’t account for AI and productivity either. I heard an analyst talk about reagan proving the opposite with productivity.

As powell spoke about the slowing economy, the market dropped. 50bp would have probably spooked the market, but i guess they have to wait till christmas to see doom for themselves.

The fed knows that the newly appointed member will inform trump of their dealings. They need to tread carefully now.

Oh, realtors will stay because they can afford to wiith all the money they made because there is no work for them elsewhere.

Spending for Covid happened under Trump also. Odd how people forget the checks that Trump handed out.

 

[Elusivebutterfly]

The BBB raised the cap $5T, true.

The BBB budget deficit was rescored by the CBO. Now they project $2.4T over 10-years, or $240b a year.

3 Key Takeaways From The CBO’s Report On The One Big Beautiful Bill

This article discusses what the CBO is and provides three key takeaways from their latest report estimating the economic impact of the Big Beautiful Bill.

www.forbes.com

The CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.

But the CBO estimate assumptions are very conservative, there are other savings to be had:
1. As the FED cuts interest rates the $1.1T interest is reduced by $300b for every 1% cut. Say 1% saves $300b.
2. DOGE savings was $200b if congress acts.
3. The assumed GDP was 1.8%, if Trump can get 3%, more tax revenue will be realized, Say $200b.

So a $240b deficit can become a $400b surplus, assuming the tariffs are ruled legal by the USSC.

The big beautiful bill will be offset with the tariffs. Billions are coming in. No more money for NGOs and the corruption they birth should make you happy, but i doubt it will.

 

[Elusivebutterfly]

Pk

To be continued. Gotta respond elsewhere. Catch ya later.

 

[citygator]

I like the move. The fact is the economy has been on life support since Trump took over. The uncertainty that he injected into markets has corporate hiring down, corporate investments reeling, and small businesses failing at record rates. A rate cut might push some investment out of companies.

Bankruptcy tracking:

Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11.5 Percent Over Previous Year

Personal and business bankruptcy filings rose 11.5 percent in the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2025, compared with the previous year.

www.uscourts.gov

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-23/america-small-farmers-are-hurting-with-trump-policies-loan-woes

US suffers 446 bankruptcy filings in 2025 under Trump, up +12% from Covid-19 times - Cryptopolitan

US company bankruptcies surged to 446 in the first seven months of 2025, surpassing pandemic-era bankruptcy levels and marking a 15-year high.

www.cryptopolitan.com

Hiring has slowed:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/job-openings-fall-again-and-hiring-has-stalled-more-evidence-of-weakening-u-s-labor-market-70f74bab

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-labor-market-softening-job-openings-hit-10-month-low-hiring-remains-tepid-2025-09-03/

Corporate Investment tanking:

Business investment falls as alarm bells rung on low productivity

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was a dramatic fall in business investment compared to the first quarter of the year.

www.cityam.com

Why is corporate investment lagging behind?

India's industrial production and corporate investment struggles explained, with insights on economic theories and government interventions.

www.thehindu.com

 

[pknopp]

If it's going south it's because of Trump.



Realtors won't stay with no sales. This cut isn't going to make people rush to buy.

MSN

 

[citygator]

MSN

Supply issues cant be solved with low interest rates for sure. Trump's plan is to get rid of all vaccines so that enough people die and houses start going for fire sale. Fool proof. Or Fool poof.

 

[LAUGHatLEFTISTS]

You don’t kick and scream for interest rate cuts because the economy is booming.

Trump’s policies are not working as intended.

You kick and scream for rate cuts to help working Americans.

 

[kyzr]

I like the move. The fact is the economy has been on life support since Trump took over. The uncertainty that he injected into markets has corporate hiring down, corporate investments reeling, and small businesses failing at record rates. A rate cut might push some investment out of companies.

What nonsense. The markets set records almost every day.
GDP is about 1.5%, so where is that recession you guys have been predicting?
Trump has $17T in foreign commitments that haven't even started yet.
You're welcome.

Bankruptcy tracking:

12% up isn't a recession, the economy will need to change to incorporate AI

Hiring has slowed:

True, but as Powell said, the available labor pool is also shrinking in balance. So its not a problem.

Corporate Investment tanking:

Who gives a **** about India?

 

[kyzr]

Supply issues cant be solved with low interest rates for sure. Trump's plan is to get rid of all vaccines so that enough people die and houses start going for fire sale. Fool proof. Or Fool poof.

Don't let so many unvaccinated illegals into the US and people won't die.
Kids get 72 jabs before the age of two.
USA kids are less healthy with much more autism than other countries, why?

As for supply issues, what supply issues?

 

[citygator]

What nonsense. The markets set records almost every day.
GDP is about 1.5%, so where is that recession you guys have been predicting?
Trump has $17T in foreign commitments that haven't even started yet.
You're welcome.

Stock market isnt the economy. Stock market grew to records under Biden too. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the index fund's capitalization. So it doesnt reflect the broad economy.

GDP of 1.5% is paltry. That is a serious problem. That is a $300B per year slowdown in economic activity from Biden's growth rate. I am not sure how much money you have but to many of us $300B is a lot. That is the difference between a 2.5% and 1.5%.

12% up isn't a recession, the economy will need to change to incorporate AI

12% higher bankruptcies is only a metric to shrug off if you are debating here trying to suck off Trump. If you make money on small businesses or with a small business you are very nervous watching them fail.

True, but as Powell said, the available labor pool is also shrinking in balance. So its not a problem.

Another hilarious point. Less workers is good now in right wing zombie land. That's fewer paying customers.

 

[Elusivebutterfly]

Spending for Covid happened under Trump also. Odd how people forget the checks that Trump handed out.

You know a lot of that covid money disappeared in fraudulent claims. So no, the covid money didn’t have the positive effect on the economy that it could have.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

~~~~~~>
To little too late!....

Too little, too late.

 

[Elusivebutterfly]

MSN

That was an interesting article. Thank you.

I’ll just give you one good example in support of buying in florida.

I bought a new home two years ago. The builder with overstock gave me $100,000 off my home and $60,000 in extras. Today they are at it again taking $100 k off the price and paying to drop interest rates. 4.9 i think.

If your home is new, your home insurance will run low. Mine is still $800 as opposed to my last home which was about $3200. The homestead amt has doubled and now desantis is trying to eliminate property taxes. Gas and electricity are affordable .

The unaffordability comes from buying in specific areas. I live close to million dollar homes but there are also homes that start at $399,000.

I am not completely blind to trump. They just made a move to add late medical payments to your credit. I think this will screw a lot of people out of buying homes.

 

[kyzr]

Stock market isn't the economy. Stock market grew to records under Biden too. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the index fund's capitalization. So it doesn't reflect the broad economy.

Bottom line, the US economy is a "70% service economy" with manufacturing about10%. Trump is trying to change that by bringing back more high end manufacturing, but it takes time to build manufacturing plants. Spending is still strong, which is why the GDP is still tracking upward. Housing is the only problem area that I'm seeing, because the Fed refused to lower rates until yesterday. The fact that you stopped predicting a recession bodes well for the economy.

GDP of 1.5% is paltry. That is a serious problem. That is a $300B per year slowdown in economic activity from Biden's growth rate. I am not sure how much money you have but to many of us $300B is a lot. That is the difference between a 2.5% and 1.5%.

Actually this link says 2025 GDP is 2%, which is about the average.
After that $17T of foreign investment hits the GDP should increase over time.

US Real GDP Growth Rate by Year - Multpl

US Real GDP Growth Rate table by year, historic, and current data. Current US Real GDP Growth Rate is 2.07%.

www.multpl.com

As for Biden's bullshit growth rate. It was juiced by $2T of borrowing that Trump is not spending, you're welcome.

12% higher bankruptcies is only a metric to shrug off if you are debating here trying to suck off Trump. If you make money on small businesses or with a small business you are very nervous watching them fail.

Trump's budget didn't even start yet, its supposed to start in October if the House can agree to pass the appropriations bills.
Capitalism is dynamic, winners thrive, losers re-think and try again with better ideas. They don't die.

Another hilarious point. Less workers is good now in right wing zombie land. That's fewer paying customers.

Wait until AI improves, workers will be displaced and have to find new jobs. Its not hilarious, but it will happen.

 

[pknopp]

You know a lot of that covid money disappeared in fraudulent claims. So no, the covid money didn’t have the positive effect on the economy that it could have.

Still went out.