Factory Jobs Are Booming Like It's The 1970s

[multivita-man]

Then why is my plant struggling? They don't want to lay us off, but we are getting no orders because the economy is bad. So half the night I just walk around from station to station gabbing. We're worried our factory will shut down soon.

Yeah, this is pretty much the story here, I'm afraid. There's an exodus of $ moving out of equities, out of real estate, and out of future purchases, and into short-term liquidity.

This surprisingly hasn't hit the consumer just yet, which may seem like a good thing, but it's not because it suggests that there's still too much excess spending power chasing too few goods, which is why inflation actually crept up again last month.

Markets clearly expect a recession. It's certainly not all Biden's or the Dems' fault, but the messaging on this is shit. Most of America does not buy that the economy is fine.

 

[DBA]

So, the 189 other countries in the world did the same?
Of course, at Biden's direction.

Why couldn't the orange, wannabe, dictator present such power over the world?

Ultimately, the world goes as the US goes, not the other way around. In general, the world was doing much better under Trump than under Biden.

 

[multivita-man]

A. it's NOT "the worst inflation in American history". It was considerably worse under Reagan

Agreed. And the solution was a Fed-induced recession, which is what we're about to enter now.

B. Government had little to do with housing costs going up. That was mostly due to population shifts

Disagree. The Fed and the Treasury, going back to late GWB term 2, have made it the main priority to keep unemployment low and the formula has been low interest rates. That absolutely makes sense - in the year 2009 or 2010. But after 2014, it's hard to make that case and yet interest rates were at nearly 0 for the better part of a decade.

Republicans are hypocrites of course, as they continued the cheap money policy, and Trump even pushed for negative interest rates. He and Mnuchin were also the ones who are responsible for most of the federal COVID-stimulus (about 60-70% of it if memory serves me correctly).

 

[Lesh]

Agreed. And the solution was a Fed-induced recession, which is what we're about to enter now.



Disagree. The Fed and the Treasury, going back to late GWB term 2, have made it the main priority to keep unemployment low and the formula has been low interest rates. That absolutely makes sense - in the year 2009 or 2010. But after 2014, it's hard to make that case and yet interest rates were at nearly 0 for the better part of a decade.

Republicans are hypocrites of course, as they continued the cheap money policy, and Trump even pushed for negative interest rates. He and Mnuchin were also the ones who are responsible for most of the federal COVID-stimulus (about 60-70% of it if memory serves me correctly).

All that being true...but it was true precovid as well and the housing market didn't explode until people started moving out of cities to escape covid

 

[multivita-man]

All that being true...but it was true precovid as well and the housing market didn't explode until people started moving out of cities to escape covid

Yeah, maybe so, but they needed money to buy the property, which federal policymakers were more than willing to print. Moreover, a lot of the purchases lately aren't even owners looking for starter homes; they're investors looking to capitalize on demand. As you say, and I agree, part of that demand - at least in 2020 - was to get away from people. But that trend lasted maybe a year- max. After that, the real story was too many dollars chasing too few goods.

The real estate boom is in line with the booms in equities, meme stocks, crypto, and other things that aren't cash, primarily because central banks made cash worthless except as a means of exchange. Now that interest rates are climbing, cash is gaining value beyond just means of exchange; you can earn interest off of it for the first time in forever. It's actually losing its value as a means of exchange due to inflation.

 

[Smokin' OP]

Ultimately, the world goes as the US goes, not the other way around. In general, the world was doing much better under Trump than under Biden.

Really?
How the fuck is that?
The US doesn't produce anything anymore, China does.
How in the hell does an importer, control suppliers' prices?
Matter of fact, how does one importer country, control prices, for 189 other countries?

 

[DBA]

Really?
How the fuck is that?
The US doesn't produce anything anymore, China does.
How in the hell does an importer, control suppliers' prices?
Matter of fact, how does one importer country, control prices, for 189 other countries?

I wasn’t talking specifically about inflation. The US is the world’s largest economy. As we go, so do other countries. Maybe you neeed a little perspective. Maybe this will help you.

The US has the largest GDP in the world at 23 trillion. China is second with 17.7 trillion. The US‘s GDP is about 30% larger than our closest competitor. 3rd is Japan with 4.9 trillion. Starting to get it yet? The US makes up a whopping 42% of the entire world’s GDP and is considerably larger than the entire European Union combined.

And consumer spending…well, you don’t want to go there.

Yes, as the US goes, so goes the world.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

The democrats did that?

How? When?

Between March and September of last year when they handed out free money for people on unemployment. Many people were making the same and even more money than they did working. Fuel prices increased the day Dementia stopped the Keystone and took other anti-energy measures from there. I'm paying double on my natural gas bill than I have the previous decade before. It's worse for businesses as they have much larger areas to heat and cool.

Being a retired truck driver I know what it costs to fill those tanks up with diesel fuel. Transportation companies had to increase costs to cover the loss which like everything else, gets passed on to us consumers.

 

[Lesh]

Between March and September of last year when they handed out free money for people on unemployment.

Much more than that was "handed out" in the two years prior and THAT was on the Trump Admin

 

[Lesh]

previous decade before.

Yea...I'll bet natural gas was cheaper in 1995 too...dope

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

It's weird. None of the pseudocons are heaping praise on the President for this.

Unemployment is lower than it was during Trump's regime, and manufacturing is experiencing a rebound. Wasn't that something Trump and the rube herd used to crow and crow about, even though manufacturing didn't really increase that much on his watch?

Hmmmm...

All that aside, here's the thing about inflation. One definition is "too much money chasing too few goods". The Fed is fighting inflation by trying to burn up excess cash. But an even better way to fight inflation is to make more goods!

Factory Jobs Are Booming Like It’s the 1970s​

​

Ever since American manufacturing entered a long stretch of automation and outsourcing in the late 1970s, every recession has led to the loss of factory jobs that never returned. But the recovery from the pandemic recession has been different: American manufacturers have now added enough jobs to regain all that they shed — and then some.

[snip]

Covid-19 crimped global supply chains, making domestic manufacturing more attractive to some companies. Federal stimulus spending helped to power a shift in Americans’ buying habits away from services like travel and restaurants and toward goods like cars and sofas, helping domestic factory production — and with it, job growth — to bounce back much faster than it did in the previous two recessions.

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said that the recovery of manufacturing jobs was a result of the unique nature of the recession, which was induced by the pandemic, and the robust federal response, including legislation like the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan of 2021.

That's awesome!

How many new factory jobs?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I wasn’t talking specifically about inflation. The US is the world’s largest economy. As we go, so do other countries. Maybe you neeed a little perspective. Maybe this will help you.

The US has the largest GDP in the world at 23 trillion. China is second with 17.7 trillion. The US‘s GDP is about 30% larger than our closest competitor. 3rd is Japan with 4.9 trillion. Starting to get it yet? The US makes up a whopping 42% of the entire world’s GDP and is considerably larger than the entire European Union combined.

And consumer spending…well, you don’t want to go there.

Yes, as the US goes, so goes the world.

The US makes up a whopping 42% of the entire world’s GDP and is considerably larger than the entire European Union combined.

You mind posting the math behind your claim?

 

[DudleySmith]

Agreed. And the solution was a Fed-induced recession, which is what we're about to enter now.



Disagree. The Fed and the Treasury, going back to late GWB term 2, have made it the main priority to keep unemployment low and the formula has been low interest rates. That absolutely makes sense - in the year 2009 or 2010. But after 2014, it's hard to make that case and yet interest rates were at nearly 0 for the better part of a decade.

Republicans are hypocrites of course, as they continued the cheap money policy, and Trump even pushed for negative interest rates. He and Mnuchin were also the ones who are responsible for most of the federal COVID-stimulus (about 60-70% of it if memory serves me correctly).

Essentially negative interest rates have killed any incentive to save once again, and of course the flood of foreign money into out domestic markets hasn't let up even with the glut of goods. I'm seeing $3 t-shirts and $10 Eddie Bauer longsleeves on the shelves now. Real inflation has been very slight; it's all just bandwagoning and purposely reduced re-investment in new production now. 'Labor shortage' claims are just ridiculous bullshit in a population of 340 million and rapidly climbing.

 

[DudleySmith]

The US makes up a whopping 42% of the entire world’s GDP and is considerably larger than the entire European Union combined.

You mind posting the math behind your claim?

They now count fake numbers as part of GDP, same as they do with CPI indexes and everything else they spin one way or the other. Japanese banks use much more realistic numbers in their calculations, but they rarely get reported or even released to the public. They count money kept overseas by American companies, even though that doesn't play any role in the domestic economy, and bank 'services' for foreign operations and companies by domestic banks.

 

[DudleySmith]

Between March and September of last year when they handed out free money for people on unemployment. Many people were making the same and even more money than they did working. Fuel prices increased the day Dementia stopped the Keystone and took other anti-energy measures from there. I'm paying double on my natural gas bill than I have the previous decade before. It's worse for businesses as they have much larger areas to heat and cool.

Being a retired truck driver I know what it costs to fill those tanks up with diesel fuel. Transportation companies had to increase costs to cover the loss which like everything else, gets passed on to us consumers.

If they were increasing costs just to cover 'inflation' they wouldn't then be reporting record profits.

 

[DudleySmith]

All that being true...but it was true precovid as well and the housing market didn't explode until people started moving out of cities to escape covid

Nah, it's because the FEds wanted to generate yet another housing bubble and offered essentially free money to mortgage lenders and home builders again.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

They now count fake numbers as part of GDP, same as they do with CPI indexes and everything else they spin one way or the other. Japanese banks use much more realistic numbers in their calculations, but they rarely get reported or even released to the public. They count money kept overseas by American companies, even though that doesn't play any role in the domestic economy, and bank 'services' for foreign operations and companies by domestic banks.

Money earned and held overseas by US companies was never ever counted as US GDP.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

If they were increasing costs just to cover 'inflation' they wouldn't then be reporting record profits.

If costs increase 25% and revenues increase 25%, profits also increase 25%.

 

[DBA]

The US makes up a whopping 42% of the entire world’s GDP and is considerably larger than the entire European Union combined.

You mind posting the math behind your

The United States and European Union are the two largest economies globally in nominal terms. As of 2021, both together share 42.4% and 30.7% of the entire global GDP in nominal and PPP terms, respectively.
Comparing United States and European Union by Economy - StatisticsTimes.com

 

[DudleySmith]

Money earned and held overseas by US companies was never ever counted as US GDP.

Yes it is; financial services provided here are most certainly counted here.