Your Worst Nightmare
- Oct 22, 2014
- Reaction score
- O.D. (Stands for Out Dere
I think the difference is to whom the Russians have supplied the good stuff. They have provided the good stuff to Syria but not Iran. Meanwhile, the Israelis don't need to spend that 150K per hit. They can do the same job with JDAMs at 27000 a copy. And Israel has plenty of those. Much more than either Syria or Iran has launchers. Yes, Russia can do it cheaper but not without raising the hackles of the rest of the entire world. Israel can attack Iran inside Syria and the only other country that will raise a stink will be Syria and they really don't want to get too antsy on their response.It is not relevant. Ok. Lets compare two examples - Russia and Israel. Russia is interested in killing Turkish and Saudies proxies in Syria and desroying their facilities. Israel is interested in killing Iranian proxies in Syria and destroying their facilities.The Israelis know that in order to not set off the tinderbox, they need to show restraint. So they do what they must do to keep their borders safe from the Iranians. That means keeping an area that they need for refueling to strike or recon Iran clear of any and all missile sites. And it doesn't matter if it's a Syrian or an Iranian missile site. It gets taken out. The Russians know this and make sure they don't feed that tinderbox. But it doesn't stop the Russians from selling the Syrians the hardware.You see, Iranian proxies overhelm USA-Israelis IADS sometimes, too. It's just a local game - exchange with missiles strikes without any significant result. "Disturbing fire" and "reconnaissance by combat".
The Jews can't use their aviation in Syrian or Iranian airspace as free as they wish, and the Arabs and Persians can't use their aviation in the Jewish airspace as free as they wish. "IADS in being", you know.
As for Arab or Syrian Air Power operating in Israel, that just isn't happening. The closest thing to that would be some fringe groups lobbing a few unguided rockets and mortars in annoyance attacks. Iran supports those fringe groups. Israel knows who the real enemy is. And it's not really Syria nor an Arab State. If you care to check, neither Syria nor Iran are Arabs. And if either of them wants to get burnt real bad, they know all they have to do is start flying in Israel air space. BTW, in order for Iran to do this, they also would need refueling bases. Not Air to Air Refueling like the Israelis, but Iran would need to have refueling bases in Syria. Israel just won't let that happen.
Targets are equal. Russia use two dumb bombs FAB-500 (price - $100 each when they were new fifty years ago, now - less than zero) to destroy a weapons warehouse. $100×2=$200. IAF needs to launch twenty AGM-142 ($1500000 each) to destroy a same target (with 50/50 odds) 20×M1,5=$30M.
Do you see the difference? So, why the expences are so different? Yes, it is result of IADS existence. So, Syrian IADS is rather effective. Israel can't bomb Syrian targets as often as Russia do, so the most of Turkish and Saudies proxies are killed, and most of Iranian proxies are still alive.
The problem with attacking the Iranian Proxies is that they are mixed in with the various populations and Israel has to tread carefully in order to not raise the ire of the Arab Nations. And if Russia decides to attack Turk sites then they lose not only the support of most of the rest of the world but also the entire Arab Nations.
You paint a nice and tidy picture but I do wish it were that simple. It's not.