Originally posted by dmp:
To me, the closeness among species points towards intelligent design, not away from the concept. Speaking of leaps of faith:
....Wysong (1976) wrote that the most basic living organism would require 124 proteins of properly sequenced amino acids. The odds of even the simplest living organism forming by chance was 10^-78,436. Furthermore, the total probability of the chance formation of the proteins and DNA required by the smallest self-replicating entity is 10^-167,626 (Hadd, 1979).....
Althoug I personally do not agree with the scientific grounds of statistics, since you can build assumption upon assumption upon assumption and thus prove anything, I will try to answer beyond my contempt for statistics.
As you well know, the Urey/Miller experiment in 1953 showed that in an anorganic soup, in which they tried to simulate the composition of the ancient ocean, they did manage to get several important amino acids - 13 out of the 21 used in organic life - after treating the soup with a bolt of lightning. (On a sidenote:
Check the thread: A whole new understanding of the UNIVERSE in the Science/Technology section for more on lightning's role as a driving force, this may be something very BIG).
This step alone is very critical in our understanding of what may have happened. It shows that while you can statistically "prove" it requires a 1 in a million chance to get 13 out of 21 amino acids from anorganic molecules, thus making it a logical assumption that it would have taken a million or so years. Yet Ury and Miller's experimental mixing of the anorganic molecules: H2O, CH4, NH3 and H2, defied "statistics" and managed to produce these 13 amino acids in a few seconds, instead of in a million years. It took them the ONE out of the million chances, and they forgot about the rest. So what happened: did they cheat?
Were they lucky? Maybe, but they had quite a clear idea of what amount of anorganic molecules were supposed to be around in the ancient earth's oceans and atmosphere: established through scientific hypothesis and the studying of ancient rock formations.
Mix it all together, and nothing happens, not for a million years, proving statistical analysis right....however, jolt a single bolt of lightning into the mix, and BEHOLD!! 13 out of the 21 organic amino-acids spontaneously form, in literally seconds.
That the process of evolution is a very gradual process has long been refuted in the scientific community. Evolution has no goal, no direction, and is driven mostly by a process called natural selection. In a stable environment, almost nothing happens; no new species arrive on the scene. The existing ones may adapt a little in the beginning, but when the environment is stable for dozens of generations, there is no need for change: species may evolve new traits still, but since there is no pressure/selection on these traits that make them more or less advantageous, nothing seems to happen.
There is plenty of evidence that there are long periods in which nothing happens, whereas other periods show very high numbers of new species, that are thought to have evolved in response to a dramatically changing environment - and thus a highly competitive selection.
Take an Ice age for example, that is some natural selection you have there: whomever is not prepared to deal with a geological "sudden, i.e. a decade-long" drop in temperature, is a gonner. Whomever adapts, passes on this new trait to the next generation, selecting for everthicker furs for example, until it is no longer a trait worth to be selected upon.
Now on to the statistical "evidence":
The problem with statistics is that it can go anywhere. Because of the inherent uncertainty, there is always either a 1% or a 5% error margin in statistical analysis. Thus, you can statistically prove that 1 is indeed equal to 2.
Suppose 1 is statistically 1, but we're only 95% sure it is, maybe it's something else, like 0,99999. That means there is a 5% chance it is not 1.
Because we cannot be 100% certain that this 5% part is 0,99999 instead of really 1, but could just as easily be 1,00001 or maybe even, let's be radical 1,00020 in extreme circumstances. That would give us, again, a 95% certainty that these other numbers are close to 1, say within a percentile of it. That would still leave 5% of the numbers unaccounted for however.
And so on and so on, if the numbers are great enough, 1 could be anything.
Ok, let's say, the 5% that we're not sure of, is realistically still pretty close to 1, so within a percent of it, either 0,99 or 1,01. And so on.
Let's take 1^100 possible "1s".
That would give us 1^100/20 --> 5% of the "1s" = 5^98 are not 1s.
That would give us 5^98/20 --> 5% of the "0,99 through 1,01s" = 2,5^97 are not that.
That would give us 2,5^97/20 --> 5% of the "0,9801 through 1,0201s" = 1,25^96 are not that.
And so on and so on. . . until,
That would give us 8,47^8 "1s" that is, close to a billion 1s, that are actually "2s" - even more than 2 already, be it by a small margin.
So 1 = 2. At least almost a billion times.