JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,798
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The suns cycles are being ignored by main stream scientists because of all the Global Warming bullshit, but some persist anyway, and now it appears that the evidence is strong enough for these scientists to get published, showing a coming cooling, that is using UNADJUSTED temperatures.
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...584A1741F.c1.iopscience.cld.iop.org#citations
For the past four centuries, cyclic variations in solar activity have been characterized by smoothed sunspot numbers, which were introduced and classified by Waldmeier (1961) and were selected as the first proxy for solar activity. These numbers show quasi-regular maxima and minima of solar activity changing approximately every 11 years and reflecting the changing magnetic activity of the Sun (Hathaway et al. 2002; Hathaway & Rightmire 2011). Nowadays these sunspot numbers are measured by most solar observatories then averaged and smoothed over all the measurements for each month to produce the smoothed average sunspot numbers published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; see, as an example, the sunspot activity in Figure 1 in Solanki & Krivova 2011).
The Sun has surprised researchers with its much lower activity in the current cycle 24 compared with that in the previous three cycles 21–23, particularly with regard to its very long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 (more than two years in 2008–2010) in which there was a lack of any activity at all. This minimum solar activity was evident not only in the lack of sunspots but also in solar magnetic field variations (de Toma et al. 2010a, 2010b), modulation of cosmic rays (McDonald et al. 2010), and in interplanetary coronal mass ejections (Barnard et al. 2011). This prolonged minimum in cycle 24 was all the more surprising because the previous five cycles had been extremely active and so sunspot-productive that they were designated as a Grand Maximum (Solanki et al.2004; Usoskin 2008; Usoskin et al. 2008; Solanki & Krivova 2011). In cycle 24, the Grand Maximum was followed by much lower solar activity, allowing some authors to suggest that the Sun is on its way toward a Maunder Minimum of activity (Lockwood et al. 2011). This reduced appearance of sunspots in the current cycle 24 was not anticipated by many researchers before the cycle began (see for example Pesnell 2008, and references therein) although after 2003, some researchers predicted a weaker cycle 24 (see for example Svalgaard et al. 2005; Choudhuri et al. 2007)....
In the current study, to predict the solar activity, we explore the PCs derived from the SBMF measured with the WSO in cycles 21–23 by using the most advanced Eureqa approach developed on Hamiltonian principles (Schmidt & Lipson 2009). We show that the classic proxy for solar activity, averaged sunspot numbers, is strongly modulated by variations in the SBMF PCs, allowing us to use the SBMF PCs as new proxies for the overall solar activity.
Furthermore, by using the Eureqa technique based on a symbolic regression, we managed to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing the fundamental processes of magnetic wave generation in the Sun's background magnetic field. These invariants are used to extract the key parameters of the PCs of SBMF waves, which, in turn, are used to predict the overall level of solar activity for solar cycles 24–26.
We can conclude with a sufficient degree of confidence that the solar activity in cycles 24–26 will be systematically decreasing because of the increasing phase shift between the two magnetic waves of the poloidal field leading to their full separation into opposite hemispheres in cycles 25 and 26. This separation is expected to result in the lack of their subsequent interaction in any of the hemispheres, possibly leading to a lack of noticeable sunspot activity on the solar surface lasting for a decade or two, similar to those recorded in the medieval period....
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...584A1741F.c1.iopscience.cld.iop.org#citations
For the past four centuries, cyclic variations in solar activity have been characterized by smoothed sunspot numbers, which were introduced and classified by Waldmeier (1961) and were selected as the first proxy for solar activity. These numbers show quasi-regular maxima and minima of solar activity changing approximately every 11 years and reflecting the changing magnetic activity of the Sun (Hathaway et al. 2002; Hathaway & Rightmire 2011). Nowadays these sunspot numbers are measured by most solar observatories then averaged and smoothed over all the measurements for each month to produce the smoothed average sunspot numbers published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; see, as an example, the sunspot activity in Figure 1 in Solanki & Krivova 2011).
The Sun has surprised researchers with its much lower activity in the current cycle 24 compared with that in the previous three cycles 21–23, particularly with regard to its very long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 (more than two years in 2008–2010) in which there was a lack of any activity at all. This minimum solar activity was evident not only in the lack of sunspots but also in solar magnetic field variations (de Toma et al. 2010a, 2010b), modulation of cosmic rays (McDonald et al. 2010), and in interplanetary coronal mass ejections (Barnard et al. 2011). This prolonged minimum in cycle 24 was all the more surprising because the previous five cycles had been extremely active and so sunspot-productive that they were designated as a Grand Maximum (Solanki et al.2004; Usoskin 2008; Usoskin et al. 2008; Solanki & Krivova 2011). In cycle 24, the Grand Maximum was followed by much lower solar activity, allowing some authors to suggest that the Sun is on its way toward a Maunder Minimum of activity (Lockwood et al. 2011). This reduced appearance of sunspots in the current cycle 24 was not anticipated by many researchers before the cycle began (see for example Pesnell 2008, and references therein) although after 2003, some researchers predicted a weaker cycle 24 (see for example Svalgaard et al. 2005; Choudhuri et al. 2007)....
In the current study, to predict the solar activity, we explore the PCs derived from the SBMF measured with the WSO in cycles 21–23 by using the most advanced Eureqa approach developed on Hamiltonian principles (Schmidt & Lipson 2009). We show that the classic proxy for solar activity, averaged sunspot numbers, is strongly modulated by variations in the SBMF PCs, allowing us to use the SBMF PCs as new proxies for the overall solar activity.
Furthermore, by using the Eureqa technique based on a symbolic regression, we managed to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing the fundamental processes of magnetic wave generation in the Sun's background magnetic field. These invariants are used to extract the key parameters of the PCs of SBMF waves, which, in turn, are used to predict the overall level of solar activity for solar cycles 24–26.
We can conclude with a sufficient degree of confidence that the solar activity in cycles 24–26 will be systematically decreasing because of the increasing phase shift between the two magnetic waves of the poloidal field leading to their full separation into opposite hemispheres in cycles 25 and 26. This separation is expected to result in the lack of their subsequent interaction in any of the hemispheres, possibly leading to a lack of noticeable sunspot activity on the solar surface lasting for a decade or two, similar to those recorded in the medieval period....
