Economic Recovery Is in Peril !!!

[dvinman]

Ummm....how many times we were told that the economy is RECOVERING?? LOL! The people who work for our present government are NATURAL BORN LIARS and need to be REMOVED!!!

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks, commodities and the euro dropped amid concern the economic recovery is in peril as European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said the ECB shouldn’t withdraw stimulus before year-end.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.6 percent to 1,068.92 at 10:19 a.m. in New York, extending its weekly loss to 1 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.6 percent for a third straight decline and the euro slumped as much as 1.2 percent to $1.2673. Oil sank below $74 a barrel and nickel and tin led metals lower in London. Treasuries were little changed after an earlier rally sent the 10-year yield to a 17-month low and the two-year yield to its lowest ever.

Weber told Bloomberg Television that discussions about the ECB’s exit from stimulus efforts will focus on the first quarter, spurring concern the region’s economy may struggle for the rest of the year. Revisions to U.S. economic growth next week are projected to show the expansion slowed even more in the second quarter, to 1.4 percent from the 2.4 percent preliminary estimate, according to a Bloomberg survey.

“There’s a bias towards defensive assets,” said Russ Koesterich, the San Francisco-based head of investment strategy for scientific active equities at BlackRock Inc., which oversees $3.2 trillion as the world’s largest asset manager. “Investors worry about the likelihood of a double dip. This is why you’re seeing stocks and commodities under pressure and bonds rallying.”

Alcoa, Tyco

All 10 industries in the S&P 500 yesterday retreated today. Alcoa Inc. and 3M Co. fell more than 1.7 percent to help lead losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Tyco International Ltd. rallied 4.2 percent after S&P said late yesterday it will replace Smith International Inc. in the S&P 500 at the close of trading on Aug. 26 as Schlumberger Ltd. completes its purchase of the oil-services company.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.7 percent yesterday after American jobless claims climbed more than economists estimated and a Philadelphia-area manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped, data showed yesterday.

Six stocks fell for every one that gained on the Stoxx 600 index, while 17 of 19 industry groups retreated. BP Plc declined for a fifth day, losing 0.6 percent as scientists said the company’s oil spill created an underwater plume of degrading crude more than 22 miles long that’s migrating across the Gulf of Mexico.

EADS Slips

European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. slipped 1.7 percent after Nomura Holdings Inc. cut its recommendation on the stock. Dana Petroleum Plc. led rising shares, gaining 6 percent after Korea National Oil Corp. made a hostile 1.87 billion-pound ($2.9 billion) bid for the U.K. explorer.

German 10-year and 30-year bond yields both fell to record lows after Weber, who heads Germany’s Bundesbank, said the ECB is likely to continue to support banks through end-of-year liquidity tensions before determining in the first quarter when to withdraw emergency lending measures. The 10-year German yield fell as low as 2.26 percent, while the 30-year yield dropped as much as 7 basis points to as low as 2.895 percent.

The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.7 percent, the most since Aug. 10, as investors speculated inflation will delay monetary easing. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index sank 0.7 percent, the first drop in six days. Korea’s won depreciated 0.9 percent, declining for the first time in four days, on concern a stalling U.S. recovery may hurt exports.

The euro fell against 13 of 16 major counterparts. The yen was stronger against 14 of its 16 most-traded peers, rising most against the Norwegian krone, by 0.9 percent.

Metals Drop

All metals on the London Metal Exchange dropped, led by declines of more than 1.4 percent in aluminum, lead and tin.

The cost of insuring European banks’ riskiest debt rose. Credit-default swaps tied to the subordinated bonds of Spanish lender Banco de Sabadell SA climbed 30 basis points to 386 and contracts on Banco Popular Espanol SA, the nation’s third- biggest commercial bank, increased 27 basis points to 393, according to data provider CMA.

Swaps on subordinated bonds issued by Allianz SE, Europe’s biggest insurer, rose 5 basis points to 87. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of swaps on bank and insurance company subordinated debt climbed 3 basis points to a four-day high of 200, JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices show.

Stocks, Oil Fall on Economy; Euro Weakens on Stimulus Concern - Bloomberg.com

 

[bugs]

Yep.. The u.s. Economy is Doing GREAT! Just Ask Obama..

 

[Charles_Main]

The truth is there never was a real recovery. The tiny bit of growth and handful of jobs we saw were a result of Stimulus. A fake recovery that is gone as soon as the money runs out, which it is beginning to do.

The Dems, and Republicans have done nothing to address the real problems with our Economy. All they have sought to do is buy some temporary relief at the cost of Further problems down the road.

Some of us were screaming about that when they were passing Tarp and all that Stimulus, but nobody listened.

The basic Problem is Politicians can not see past the next election cycle. Which is why they pass feel good temporary stop gaps, instead of actually fixing the underlying problems and ultimately make the whole situation worse.

 

[Charles_Main]

Now the former head of the Bank of England says if the US does not extend all the Bush tax cuts, It could cause a depression in the US.

Sweet.

Hope that fucking is wrong because Obama is going to go against the will of the people again and let them expire. Why wouldn't he, he does the wrong thing at every turn.

 

[william the wie]

This looks more like a deadcat bounce than a recover to me but what do I know?

 

[code1211]

Now the former head of the Bank of England says if the US does not extend all the Bush tax cuts, It could cause a depression in the US.

Sweet.

Hope that fucking is wrong because Obama is going to go against the will of the people again and let them expire. Why wouldn't he, he does the wrong thing at every turn.

Tru' dat. But his record is unblemished in this respect.

 

[waltky]

Biggest threat to the recovery...

What has economists most on edge: Oil prices
March 20, 2011 -- The U.S. economy faces numerous obstacles that threaten to derail the recovery. But economists are most fearful of one major headwind: oil prices.

More than two-thirds of the 23 economists surveyed by CNNMoney identified high oil prices as the most serious risk facing the economy. As uprisings spread across the Middle East and North Africa, prices have soared about 15% in the past two months, pushing gas prices higher. And as the situation in Libya escalates, economists are growing more jittery about oil prices, even in the face of other threats to the economy, like the crisis in Japan, cuts in government spending and continued weakness in the housing sector.

"Oil and gasoline remain a very big worry for me which have been compounded by the events going on in Japan," said Bernard Baumohl, head of the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, N.J. "But we don't have any let-up in the events going on in the Middle East and North Africa." Baumohl thinks high oil prices are jeopardizing the recovery by hitting consumers' wallets and keeping businesses on edge. He's cut his forecasts for growth this year nearly a full percentage point to 2.8%.

Economists are particularly worried that gasoline prices will continue to rise, choking off economic growth. "As we go into peak driving season, the basic seasonal pressures will take a toll on gasoline prices," said Bruce McCain of Key Private Bank. "It'll be more a matter of blunting growth than causing a new recession. But the growth has been fragile through this entire recovery." The Federal Reserve appeared to dismiss higher oil prices as a threat at its March 15 meeting, saying the rise in energy prices was likely to be "transitory" and that underlying price pressures -- measured by core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices -- remain in check.

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See also:

Oil jumps $2 as Libya crisis escalates
March 20, 2011 -- Oil prices jumped more than $2 a barrel in electronic trading Sunday following escalating violence in Libya, where the military called for an immediate cease-fire after allied forces fired on Libyan defense sites.

"It seems like things have stepped up and that means more uncertainty," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover. "Every incident that you have expands [uncertainty]." The benchmark U.S. contract, West Texas Intermediate, for April delivery gained $1.95 to $103.02 a barrel. The more active May contract jumped $2.08 to $103.93 a barrel. That's still comfortably below the $106.95-a-barrel high hit two weeks ago, but Beutel said he expects volatility to rule the day.

"[Volatility] just possibly couldn't get any higher," he said, adding that he wouldn't be surprised to see prices go up by $50 and then drop $100 over the course of the year. "Volatility is getting worse and worse each day." Meanwhile, brent crude, the main European contract, rose $1.05 to $114.98 a barrel. While Libya is Africa's third-largest oil producer and sits atop the continent's largest reserves, the country only contributes about 2% of the 87.5 million barrels of oil the world consumes every day.

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency estimated roughly 1 million barrels per day of Libyan oil had been taken off the world market so far. Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have pledged to increase production to make up for any lost oil due to unrest in Libya. But concerns are less about Libyan production and more about how far the problems will spread.

Traders are worried about growing conflict in the Middle East, following protests in Yemen, Bahrain and Oman. "It's spreading closer and closer to the Petroleum Gulf," said Beutel, and that's what's fraying investors' nerves. So far this month, oil prices are averaging just over $101 a barrel. In March 2010, prices averaged just over $81 a barrel for the entire month.

Source

 

[william the wie]

Labor force composition is becoming a big issue as to whether there has been recovery. Non-Ag civilian employment - (government civilian employment and government contract employment) = Non-Ag Free Market employment. Even compared to the 1930s this employment measure is about as bad as it has ever been in history.

Also the upsurge in SSI and Disability payments is also leading to sharpening some of pencils as well. It is too soon to tell what the consensus will be but a shift in statistics used seems to be on the way.