Early vote live thread

[Lucy Hamilton]

You sure as heck have your hopes up, don't you?

Wonder if there are any crossovers?

Trump is doing pretty well in Florida, and so are the Independents.

What the below shows is that more Democrats voted early, more Republicans voted by mail.

The figure to pay attention to are the Independents, No Party Affiliation, Hillary is considered the incumbent as the Democrats control the White House and historically Independents always break toward the challenger.

No Party Affiliation

Vote-by-Mail Provided (Not Yet Returned) 384,556

Voted Vote-by-Mail 208,124

Voted Early 42,724


Vote-by-Mail Request & Early Voting Statistics

Statewide Totals

2016 General Election

Election Number - 10282 Election Date - 11/08/2016

Stats Type Republican Democrat Other No Party Affiliation Total Compiled

Vote-by-Mail Provided (Not Yet Returned) 704,440 733,605 45,001 384,556 1,867,602 10/25/2016 7:28AM Download File

Voted Vote-by-Mail 556,058 525,076 34,176 208,124 1,323,434 10/25/2016 7:28AM Download File

Voted Early 109,034 133,041 6,650 42,724 291,449 10/25/2016 7:28AM Download File

The above is from the below link from the Florida Division Elections website, it also includes the Early Voting breakdown County by County:

Statistics - County Vote-by-Mail and Early Voting Reports

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hillary HQ retweeted
Steve Schale
13h13 hours ago
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 10,171,867 votes or 22.0% of the 2012 early vote. This is also 7.9% of the total 2012 vote!

 

[ScienceRocks]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html


Tom Bonier (@tbonier) | Twitter

"Sleeping giant awakens? Huge surge in early vote in Cuyahoga/Franklin Counties yesterday, now accounting for 20% of early votes cast in OH."

"38% of ballots cast in Ohio yesterday came from Franklin and Cuyahoga County. Time to lose the media narrative on Trump doing well in OH."
===============


Good numbers from CNN
Early voting numbers show Clinton's strength in Arizona, other battlegrounds - CNNPolitics.com

Arizona
Dems ahead by 4,116 votes, a major improvement from their position at this time four years ago, when they trailed by 21,179.

Colorado
Democrats have outvoted Republicans by more than 10,000. At this point in 2012, Republicans had the advantage by about 7,600 votes.

Florida
Republicans currently hold an 18,120-vote advantage, a paltry amount compared to their 113,222-vote edge at this time in 2008.

Nevada
Democrats hold a nearly 15,000-vote lead, a slight improvement from their position in 2012.

North Carolina
Democrats better than their 2012 pace, but Black vote only 25% share vs 30% in 2012.

Utah
At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 31,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 15,834.

Iowa
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in the latest early vote count, but their margin is lower than it was at this point in 2012, to the tune of about 7,200 votes

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Hillary HQ retweeted
Steve Schale
13h13 hours ago
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.

No fat lady yet Matthew.

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton

RCP Average 10/20 - 10/24 -- -- Clinton 46.8 Trump 45.0 Clinton +1.8

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton

 

[ScienceRocks]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 12,041,191 votes or 26.1% of the entire 2012 early vote.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Mark Murray on Twitter
Latest NBC Marist poll in Nevada has Clinton up 25 points in early voting (60-35)

70% of all votes in Nevada are early votes...So if she can keep anything like this for the next 12 days...Well, Nevada should be a easy win...

 

[tommagee33]

I am an undecided voter holding an absentee ballot. I have no idea who to vote for. Whats the best argument to sway my vote?

Check out the thread on Trump's Oct 22 speech on what he'll do in the 1st 100 days. That will make up your mind.

Thanks - I did one better and listened to the speech and that made up my mind. The guy is just so much more authentic and driven to make the changes this country really needs.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Colorado Daily Update


Less ballots returned yesterday but Dems still expand their lead. Republicans are now running under what they were at this time in 2014 (and that was a mid-term!)


14 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats 166,605 (105,401)
Republicans 141,354 (145,824)
Independent 103,354 (77,285)

TOTAL 416,951 (332,050)

Total turnout up 26%

 

[ScienceRocks]

in Nevada (NV) 5TH day. Dems lead by > 25,500 EV, 45% to 36%

10:00 PM PST Hillary For America added at least 2,000 EV to her NV firewalll. Washoe County Dems are keeping pace with all other state county tallies, winning by 45. As of this moment, HRC has a net lead of ~26,503 EV after five days of heavy voter turnout.

No other news source has these numbers. When the SoS reports statewide figures tomorrow, the total EV lead should close to what is listed in the title, if not more.

Democratic GOTV surges FORWARD TOGETHER.

Statewide EV (polls & absentee)
Total: 279,035
Dems: 126,101
Reps: 99,598
Other: 53,336

Percentages
Dems: 45.2%
Reps: 35.7%
Other: 19.1%

Nevada SoS PDF <here>
Washoe County & Clark County elections results also included.


NV's largest two counties, Washoe & Clark added 4,495 to the Democratic vote count lead.

4,440 in Clark
45 in Washoe

 

[ScienceRocks]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 12,879,802 votes making up 27.9% of 2012's early vote!

 

[ScienceRocks]

2016 November General Election Early Voting - United States Elections Project

Some early votes so far
Arizona Democrats 278,507 36.4%, Republicans 296,495 38.7%
Colorado Democrats 166,605 40.0%, Republicans 141,354 33.9%
Florida Democrats 830,341 40.8%, Republicans 835,252 41.0%
Iowa Democrats 156,535 45.7%, Republicans 115,699 33.8%, About 40,836 lead!
Nevada Democrats 105,543 45.7%, Republicans 81,998 35.5%
North Carolina Democrats 382,587 47.1%, Republicans 231,940 28.6%

 

[ScienceRocks]

Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn – Verified account ‏@Nate_Cohn

Clinton leads by 22 points among nearly 1 million N.C. early voters, according to our estimates
====
Steve Schale on Florida

278,701 Floridians voted early, and Democrats won the day by about 4,000. Total in person was about 15,000 less than Tuesday.

166,962 Floridians returned a VBM ballots, and GOP on them by about 10,000.

So out of about 2.5 million votes, the GOP has a 10,000 vote lead, which plays out to about 0.47%

I get asked often how this compares to 2012. It really doesn’t in an apple to apples form. Early voting in 2012 started on this coming Saturday, so we were only looking at VBM in 2012 on this day. The GOP had a pretty significant lead, and we did not overtake them in total votes until Sunday.

In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead. If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP.

Hillsborough -

is the only county that voted for Bush twice and Obama twice. It has also correctly picked 19 of the last 20 Presidents.

Yesterday, Democrats carried the day by about 5 points, thanks to a 10-point advantage in VBM ballots. Democrats maintain a 7-point (44-37) edge in total ballots cast, which is in line with our registration edge.

I-4

Orange: 46-32 D for the day. 49-31 D overall
Osceola: 48-28 D for the day. 49-29 D overall
Volusia: 42-36 R for the day. 42-38 R overall

Palm Beach continues to look good (though I’d like higher turnout): 48-30 for day, 51-30 overall (+28K). (Obama won by 17 points)

Broward: 57-23 D for the day, and 58-24 D overall (+66K)

Dade: 45-31 D for the day, and 45-33 D overall (+33K)

Duval, even though GOP had a good day in VBM returns, Democrats once again won the in person early vote. This is a county that Obama was able to significantly reduce the huge Bush margins of 2000 and 2004 (61K votes in 2004!)

Duval: 44-43 R for the day, 44-41 R overall (+1,000)

====

UPDATE: The Nevada Early Voting Blog

"The latest statewide numbers, missing a few rural counties, show a 26,500 lead for the Dems in raw votes. That's 45 percent to 36 percent, the same percentage lead and 3,500 raw votes more than they had at this point in 2012 and about 3 points above the actual registration difference."

====
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 3m3 minutes ago
Nevada early vote (mail and in-person) update: 313K voted (for in-person, +13.1% from 2012). Reg Dems +15.9 points over Reps

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1m1 minute ago
Nevada already at 44.5% of their 2012 total early vote. Reps are going to have to turn things around soon for Trump to have a chance

 

[ScienceRocks]

@hellofasandwich

In late Oct. '12, SUSA polled GA and had Romney up 51-48 among early voters.

Per Quinnipiac, Clinton is leading the GA early vote by 48-42.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 15,569,969 votes making up 33.7% of the 2012 early vote.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP
She's up 13 points in FL when the party split (a substantial # of early votes now) was even

 

[ScienceRocks]

Colorado Daily Update


Another good day for the Dems


13 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats 224,914 (139,401)
Republicans 196,082 (190,235)
Independent 143,866 (102,031)

TOTAL 416,951 (332,050)

Dem turnout up 61%
Rethuglican turnout up 3%
Independent turnout up 41%

Total turnout up 31%

 

[ScienceRocks]

 

[ScienceRocks]

Nebraska, and specifically NE-02 looking good

Douglas #NE02
Requests
D 33,106 47%
R 24,621 35%
I 12,824 18%
Total 71,179

Returns
D 22,063 48%
R 16,145 35%
I 7,104 16%
Total 45,559

===
EXCLUSIVE FL early vote stat: Of the 2.47m votes cast as of this am,
1/5 (514k) cast by voters who didn't vote in 2012

D 37%
NPA 24%
R 34%
daniel a. smith on Twitter



EXCLUSIVE: Of the 514k EIP & VBM who've voted in FL but who skipped 2012 or registered subsequently:

67% white

8% black

17% Hispanic


In FL, 53% of registered "Active" voters are women, 45% are men.

Of those who have voted as of this am...

54% women

44% men

daniel a. smith on Twitter

 

[ScienceRocks]

1. 
   Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 6h6 hours ago
   Dems won Clark County by 3K votes today, but GOP had best day yet in only losing by that much. 44-34, Dems. Reg is 43-29. Dem lead now 36K.
   
   0 replies 25 retweets 58 likes
   
   
   Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 7h7 hours ago
2. Jon Ralston Retweeted Tyler Dinucci
   
   Actually, it's bigger than that. The 2,400 number is mail and early; in 2012, the Dem lead in Washoe was about 700 with both after a week.
   
   Jon Ralston added,