Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming

[Saigon]

I don't know....isn't a GOOD thing that scientists can make their predictions and modeös more accurate as time passes?

I son't really see that a prediction 0.5C off is evidence of any great crime or error.

 

[IanC]

I don't know....isn't a GOOD thing that scientists can make their predictions and modeös more accurate as time passes?

I son't really see that a prediction 0.5C off is evidence of any great crime or error.

is that really what you see? improvement?

I see an initial prediction that is very far off the mark, presumably because it has been run out for 22 years.

the second prediction has a decreased slope and has been offset for Pinatubo. it is the closest to reality. 17 years has only led to a 0.3C divergence.

the third prediction was at the height of Global Warming Alarm. the HockeyStick Graph was being presented as incontrovertible proof of unprecidented warming. its slope is very similar to the first prediction but because global warming has stalled it is already 0.39C off the mark after only a decade.

the fourth prediction was formed in a 'bunker' mentality when the IPCC was trying to squash skeptics and contrarians by ignoring their input and gerry-rigging 'peer-reviewed' sources. it has a massively increased slope and is off by an amazing 0.37C after only five years!


you seem to think 0.5C is not much to be wrong by. in 2000 the accepted figure for total warming since 1860 was only 0.7C. the IPCC is wrong by a similar amount in 20 years as there has been total change in 150 years. but we are supposed to believe their projections out to year 2100? give me a break!

 

[Saigon]

Ian C -

The two things I would expect to see are improvement and honesty. I think we see both of those happening.

Given the rate of warming the world experienced during the 1980's and 1990's, it doesn't surprise me that the smart money predicted the same or even an accelrating trend. OK, now we know that from about 1998 the rate of increase slowed, but I'm not sure how scientists could have predicted that then.

I agree 0.5C is a lot over a short time scale - less so over 100 years.

 

[joewp]

Saigon, the rate of increase hasn't slowed.

NASA - The Ups and Downs of Global Warming

It's the same through the 1970s and since 1998. If you look at the graph and draw a line under the lows, it's pretty much a solid trend on the way up.

Cherry-picking one year and claiming the world global warming has stopped or even the rate has decreased in disingenuous. For instance, here's a graph of housing prices since 1970. I don't think any sane person would claim that the housing price trend has changed very much even with prices being below the bubble 2006 top.

 

[Saigon]

Joewp -

You are right, but I also think we need to be honest and say that the rate of increase this past decade has not been as rapid as many scientists predicted.

Both the US and Australia had record-breaking years for heat, but other parts of the world had years more consistent with the past 10 years than over and above them.

It is still hot and has remained hot, but it has not got a lot hotter recently. I suspect we will see another sudden spike again at some point, but temperatures will never convince the sceptics here of anything.

 

[joewp]

I think the IPCC predictions are still not including the dimming factor of particulate pollution, and that's why the predictions are somewhat off. China, among other countries, has been burning way more coal than anyone could have predicted 20 years ago, and the particulate matter is exerting a dimming effect which slows the warming. For more, see this excellent BBC Horizon documentary:[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8RyNSzQDaU]BBC Global Dimming Documentary About Geoengineering & Global Warming - YouTube[/ame]

And you're right, the deniers will never believe the evidence, but that's not their fault. They've been brainwashed into believing guys like Pat Michaels are actual climate scientists while guys like Hansen are the ones who are in it for the money.
Its amazing what a little propaganda can do, isn't it?