November 5, 2021
Today’s jobs report showed an acceleration in hiring. Businesses added 604,000 jobs while the government shed 73,000, for a nonfarm payroll expansion of 531,000. This is strong evidence that the end of enhanced unemployment benefits in September has incentivized out-of-work Americans to accept jobs. The revisions to September and August, which added a total of 235,000 jobs, suggest that the earlier ends to the benefit bonuses in Republican-led states got this process started this summer.
It also suggests that this could have been accomplished earlier, which would have eased inflationary pressures and boosted consumer sentiment. The decision by the Biden administration and Capitol Hill Democrats to extend benefits through the summer now looks like a political own-goal. Perhaps Biden's approval rating would not be as deep underwater as it is today if there had been a few good jobs reports and lower inflationary reads over the summer months. The economic damage is continuing, however, with the labor force about two percent smaller than it was prepandemic.
Speaking of which, labor force participation was surprisingly unchanged at 61.6 percent. The quickest explanation for this is that the population expanded by 142,000. So even though 104,000 people were added to the workforce, they didn't move the participation needle down.
For the Federal Reserve, this report pushes both in a dovish and a hawkish direction. The stronger than expected jobs figure indicates less need for accommodative monetary policy. But black unemployment remained unchanged for the month, which means that October employment fell short of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's goal of a "broad and inclusive" expansion.
Next week will bring October reads for the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. It's likely that PPI will remain at least as hot as it was last month, when it rose 0.5 percent, due to ongoing supply chain constraints. CPI likely accelerated due to the retreat of the Delta variant and signs that spending on services surged in October. If the Democrats have not managed to pass Biden's big-spending bills by midweek, the resurgence of inflationary pressures would likely create even more doubts in the minds of more centrist lawmakers about the wisdom of ramping up government spending.
That may be why President Biden was demanding lawmakers pass the bills "right now" on Friday.
– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network
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