The preparation to implement these impressive plans was conducted in different areas, including military intelligence. That, for example, is what Captain Semishin, head of the intelligence department at the Baltic Fleet’s Air Force headquarters, wrote to Major Klimashin:
“[I hereby] report the condition of the intelligence preparation of the Baltic Fleet Air Force headquarters as of August 1, 1940… The target profiles are being opened and updated with incoming material; in particular, the Stockholm object was duplicated in 20 copies and sent to the units. The objects Kalmar and Karlskrona are under development. The Air Force has a total 270 target profiles; among them are 91 in Sweden, 90 in Germany, and 36 in Finland.”
On August 14, Major Klimashin sent Captain Semishin the following instructions: “By September 1, 1940, report on which targets in Finland and Sweden have profiles open and whether they [the profiles] had been conveyed to all regiments [emphasis mine]. At the same time, report on whether you have received the ‘Stockholm’ object from the intelligence department of the Baltic Sea Fleet and what its shortcomings are. Speed up the processing of the profiles in order to finish it in the nearest future.”
It is understood that the air force was not the only, and not even the main, instrument for “solving the question of the independent existence of Sweden” or for blocking the Suez Canal. We forget the grandiose program for building the Navy, the realization of which started at the end of the 1930s in the USSR. In 1938 the decision was made to build, within 10 years, 15 (!!!) battleships, 35 heavy cruisers, 20 light cruisers, and 145 destroyers. Later this program was slightly cut back: the project was to build in seven years “only” six battleships, 21 light cruisers, and 98 destroyers.
Nearly half of the list of military machinery, equipment, and armaments purchased in 1939-1940 in Germany consists of multiple types of naval artillery (including special corrosion-proof guns for submarines), mine and torpedo armaments, hydro-acoustic devices, on-deck scouting planes, and catapults for launching them. There were also propeller shafts and turbine spindles, diesel engines for ships and, finally, the newest cruiser, the "Lutsov", built in German shipyard and completed in Leningrad.
Of the 25 billion rubles assigned in 1940 according to the plan for armament procurements and war-related equipment, almost a quarter (5.8 billion) was assigned to the People's Commissariat for the Navy. The estimated cost of one battleship like the Sovetskiy Soyuz (“project 23”) in 1940 was assessed as 1.18 million rubles. Keeping in mind the fact that, in the environment of the Soviet anti-market economy, “price” was a conditional concept, we should note that one "Sovetskiy Soyuz" should have cost the budget the equivalent of 80,000 45-mm anti-tank guns or 3,000 medium T-34 tanks, or 3,200 SB light bombers. Luckily, building battleships consumed only a miserable 600 million rubles (excluding R&D expenses). In June, 1941 all work towards building battleships and heavy cruisers was immediately stopped and the ships’ hulls were preserved: those cyclopean monsters were absolutely unfit for war against Germany.
At the beginning of the world war the great naval country of Great Britain was armed with 58 submarines. Germany had 57, Italy had 68, and Japan had 63. The USSR, that gigantic continental country, was armed with 267 submarines (although not in September, 1939, but in June, 1941). The question is: this gigantic underwater fleet was meant for effecting the sea blockade of which country?
Some air force historians (V. Belokon, A. Stepanov) have noticed the obvious “anti-British” direction of the Soviet Air Force’s development at the turn of the 1930s and 1940s. Despite having in serial production and among the fighting forces’ armaments DB-3f bombers capable of flying 3,300 km with a one-ton bomb load (the German best at that time, the He-111, had a flight range of no more than 2,700 km), Stalin set a goal for his designers in January, 1939: to design a bomber with a 5,000 km flight range. For what? Which frontier were “Stalin’s falcons” supposed to reach? It is 1,000 km from Minsk to Berlin, 1,200 from Minsk to Hamburg, 1,400 km from Kiev to Munich, and 1,200 from Vladivostok to Tokyo. The DB-3f’s range was sufficient for bombing any of the indicated targets. But bombing the British Isles would indeed require a bomber with a significantly wider flight range (it is 1,900 km from Minsk to London and 2,000 km from Minsk to Manchester).
All these martial ideas and sweet dreams about turning the Baltic into an “internal sea” and about the Himalayan passes on the route to the Indian Ocean were completely routed in the summer of 1940. Within one month, France was defeated. The British Expeditionary Corps barely escaped leaving heaps of heavy arms in the coastal sand of Dunkirk. With breathtaking speed, the newborn Wehrmacht was turning into the most powerful army in the world. The greater part of continental Western Europe appeared to be under Hitler’s control. This shocking reality forced Stalin to drastically change his strategic war plan.
Plan #2 was a plan for war against Germany.
Unlike Plan #1, the contents of which can only be guessed at based on separate bits of information, Plan #2 can be reconstructed today in detail. In the first half of the 1990s the following documents were declassified and published:
- An internal memo by the People’s Commissar for Defense and the head of the Red Army General Staff to J. Stalin and V. Molotov “On the principles of strategic deployment of the USSR’s military forces in the west and east”; it has no register number and was sent no later than August 16, 1940.
- A document with an analogous name, but this time with a register number (#103202) and with an exact date of signing (September 18, 1940).
- An internal memo from the People’s Commissar for Defense and head of the Red Army General Staff to J. Stalin and V. Molotov, register # 103313. (The document starts with the words, “For your approval report the main conclusions based on your instructions of September 5, 1940 while reviewing the plans for the strategic deployment of the USSR’s military forces in 1941,” for which reason this document is usually named “the specified October plan for strategic deployment.”);
- An internal memo from the chief of the Kiev Special Military District about the operational deployment plan for 1940; no register number; composed no later than December, 1940.
- An internal memo from the People’s Commissar for Defense and the head of the Red Army General Staff to J. Stalin and V. Molotov at the Central Committee on “The specified plan for strategic deployment of the USSR’s military forces in the west and east”; no register number; dated March 11, 1940.
- A directive from the People’s Commissar for Defense and the head of the Red Army General Staff to the commander of the forces of the Western Special Military District to develop an operational deployment plan for the district’s forces; no register number; dated April, 1941.
- An internal memo by the People’s Commissar for Defense and the head of the Red Army General Staff to J. Stalin and V. Molotov "Considerations for the strategic deployment plan for the Soviet Union’s military forces in case of war with Germany and its allies"; no register number; dated May 15, 1941.
Strictly speaking, there is plenty of information to study. Five variants of the general plan for the Red Army’s strategic deployment and materials for operational plans for the two most important military grouping – the Southwestern front (Kiev Special Military District) and the Western front (Western Special Military District) – are at historians’ disposal.
What conclusions can we draw based on the available documents?
Firstly, an operational plan against Germany did exist, and work on that plan went on for many months – from at least August, 1940, with no consideration of the Non-Aggression Pact.
Secondly, starting in August, 1940 the strategic deployment plans mentioned earlier no longer name Great Britain as a potential enemy of the USSR; Germany is constantly named the main enemy, with potential support to be provided to it by Italy, Hungary, Romania, and Finland.
Thirdly, all of the currently declassified plans for the Red Army’s strategic deployment present practically the same document, which changes slightly from one version to another. At issue is not only the semantic, but also the textual, similarity of all the plans. Without exception, the documents present the description of a plan for the preparation and carrying out of a strategic offensive operation beyond the USSR’s state borders. All the geographic names in the theater of stipulated military action that were used in the documents are names of East Prussian, Polish, and Slovak cities and rivers:
1. “In cooperation with the Fourth Army of the Western Front, to inflict a resolute defeat on the enemy’s Lublin-Sandomir grouping and approach the Vistula River. Further on, inflict an assault in the directions of Kielce-Piotrkow and Krakow, to capture the region of Kielce-Piotrkow and approach the Pilica River and the upper portion of the Oder River…”
2. “The closest strategic task is the defeat, in cooperation with the Fourth Army of the Western Front, of Germany’s military forces in the regions of Lublin, Tomaszow, Kielce, Radom and Rzeszow, Jaslo, Krakow and the approach, on the thirtieth day of the operation, to the front of the Pilica River, Piotrkow, Oppeln, Nejshtadt, cutting off Germany from its southern allies…
3.The main forces of the Southwestern Front in collaboration with the left flank of the Western Front should strike and decisively defeat the enemy’s Lublin-Radom-Sandomir-Krakow grouping; [they should] force a crossing over the Vistula, take over Krakow and Warsaw, and reach the Warsaw, Lodz, Krejcburg, Oppeln front…”
4. “With the Southwestern Front armies taking the offensive, have the left wing assault in the general direction of Siedlec and Radom, assisting the Southwestern Front in destroying the enemy’s Lublin-Radom grouping. The nearest task of the front is to take over the Siedlec and Lukov regions and the Vistula crossings; in the future, consider the actions in the Radom region in order to complete the encirclement of the enemy’s Lublin grouping in collaboration with the Southwestern Front…”
5. “The main strike of the Southwestern Front forces should be targeted towards Krakow and Katowice, cutting Germany off from its southern allies; the auxiliary strike of the left wing of the Western Front should be applied towards Siedlec and Deblin for the purpose of paralyzing the Warsaw grouping and assisting the Southwestern Front in defeating the enemy’s Lublin grouping…”
These excerpts are quotes from five different documents (military plans). The obvious similarity (even of the details) in all the variations of the plan for the strategic offensive operation conducted to the west of the USSR’s state border shows the incorrectness of formulations such a: “Zhukov’s plan,” “Zhukov’s May plan,” etc…The plan for the Red Army’s strategic deployment could only and exclusively be “Stalin’s plan.” In the period from August, 1940 to May, 1941, Timoshenko, the People’s Commissar for Defense, and three subsequent chiefs of the General Staff – Shaposhnikov, Meretskov, and Zhukov – worked on developing different versions of this plan.
Fourthly, only the August (1940) document makes the choice of direction for the deployment of the Red Army’s main forces dependant on the enemy’s probable plans. (“Believing that the Germans’ main strike will be directed towards the north of the San River’s mouth, it is necessary to have the Red Army’s main forces deployed towards the north of Polessie as well… Our military forces’ main task is defeating the German forces being concentrated in East Prussia and in the Warsaw region …”). With some stretch, this one could be called “planning a counterstrike.” All the subsequent variants of the Red Army’s strategic deployment plan establish the geography of the planned military action from the point of view of the military and political advantages for the attacking Red Army.
After extensive discussion (on October 3, 4, and 5, Timoshenko and Meretskov spent 3.5 hours each day in the Master’s study), report memo #103313 was originated. The document starts with the following words: “I report for your confirmation the main conclusions from your instructions as given on October 5, 1940…” The main conclusions were formulated in the following manner:
“To have the main grouping within the Southwestern Front, so that [its] powerful strike in the direction of Lublin and Krakow and further towards Breslau [today Wroclaw, Poland] would cut off Germany from the Balkan countries in the first stage of the war, deprive it of extremely important economic bases, and decisively influence the Balkan countries in the matter of their participation in the war…”
The September strategic deployment plan (along with additions and specifications from October 5) is a very extensive document (of more than 6,700 words). It describes in detail the grouping of the Soviet forces, the order and terms of these forces’ concentration, the Air Force’s structure and tasks, and operational plans for primary operations detailed on the level of the fronts. It is possible to assume that the commanders of the border military districts (future fronts) had been familiarized with the document. This assumption is based on the notion that no later than December, 1940 a very detailed “Plan for Southwestern Front Deployment” was developed at the Kiev Military District headquarters. As should have been expected, the operational deployment plan for the Southwestern Front quite corresponded with the Big Plan:
On March 11, 1940 Timoshenko and Zhukov presented to Stalin yet another “Adjusted plan of the USSR’s military forces’ strategic deployment in the west and east.” The March (1941) variant of the Big Plan did not drastically differ from the previous two. This time, again, the choice of the direction for the main assault is governed exclusively by offensive considerations:
“The deployment of the Red Army’s main forces in the west with the concentration of main forces against East Prussia and in the Warsaw direction raises serious concerns that the fighting on this front will lead to protracted combat and tie up our main forces, and will not provide the necessary and prompt effect…
“It would be most beneficial to deploy our main forces to the south of the Pripyat River and by powerful assaults on Lublin, Radom, and in the direction of Krakow defeat the main German forces and, in the primary stage of the war, cut Germany off from the Balkan countries …”
The March variant is interesting mostly because after the description of “the first strategic task” (an offensive against Krakow-Katowice ), it contains directions for other strikes:
“The next strategic target for the Red Army’s main forces, depending on the situation, can be established as following: develop an operation through Poznan towards Berlin, or operate to the southwest towards Prague and Vienna, or strike in the north towards Torun and Danzig, aiming to get around East Prussia…”
No one has yet found any other plans for the Red Army’s strategic deployment, except these. With all the Russian archives at their disposal, Suvorov’s opponents have not, in the past 18 years, managed to present to the world a single document in which the beginning (only the beginning!) of the Soviet-German war was being planned in the form of a strategic defensive operation on Soviet territory.
At the beginning of January, 1941, the major ideas and solutions for the operational plan for war against Germany and its allies were worked out in the process of two operational-strategic map games. These games were conducted by the General Staff under the general supervision of the People’s Commissar for Defense, Marshal Timoshenko. Four marshals and 49 generals, deputies of the People’s Commissar for Defense and of the chief of the General Staff, commanders and chiefs of the headquarters of western military districts participated in these “games.” In other words: all of the Red Army’s top command staff and all those who in the near future would lead troops in combat.
For more than half a century, the materials of the January (1941) operational strategic games were hidden behind a top secret classification. There were two games. In the first, the “northern variant” was worked out: dealing the main strike from the Belostok prominence and Lithuania in the direction of East Prussia. Virtual “military actions” were performed on the enemy’s territory; the “easterners” reached Allenstein (now Olsztyn, Poland) and Rastenburg (now Kętrzyn). In general, the set offensive tasks were carried out (they did not succeed either in encircling the main “westerners” forces or in reaching the Vistula and Danzig). The offensive, on woody and swampy territory got bogged down. The game proved once more the hopelessness of the strategic offensive operation’s “northern variant.”
The “southern version” had been played in the second game; it had already been accepted and in October of 1940 it was approved as the main one (by the way, the “easterners” group was significantly larger in the second game than it had been in the first one). After deploying main forces in the Lvov prominence, within five weeks the “easterners” had to approach the front of Vistula River, Krakow, Budapest, Timisoara, and Craiova; that is, in the course of the offensive operation they had to move 250-300 km depthwise and take over southern Poland, Slovakia, and a major part of Hungary and Romania.
The second (“southern”) “game” deserves particular attention for a number of reasons. Firstly, in the legend of the game, all the minimal “fig leaves” meant to demonstrate peaceableness were shed away. The offensive of the “easterners” did not even start from the border, but from the Rzeszow-Tarnow region which was already deep inside the Reich-controlled land.
Secondly, (and this is extremely important for understanding how Stalin and his entourage estimated the Red Army’s fighting capacity at this point), the “easterners” were involved in simultaneously solving four (!) large-scale tasks during the course of the game: defeating the enemy’s main forces in the Krakow-Katowice region, effecting a deep breakthrough towards Budapest, carrying on a stubborn defense in two directions against the enemy’s counterstrikes (towards Kovel and Stryi), and encircling the shock troops of the “westerners,” forcing a crossing over the Dnestr. The “easterners” performed all these tasks brilliantly, yielding to the enemy in terms of number of infantry divisions (81 against 100) and having a quite modest (by 30%) superiority in terms of air force. (Only in terms of the number of tanks did the “easterners” have a significant – a threefold – advantage.)
Thirdly, the chronology of the “game” was set up in a quite notable fashion! The game did not involve a “first,” “second,” or “tenth” day. Rather, the chronology was from August 8 to August 20, and not just any August, but August, 1941. This fact – the establishing of a concrete year – looks strange enough. If establishing a concrete month can be explained by the fact that, in planning virtual “combat actions,” it was necessary to properly consider natural conditions, climatic conditions, daylight hours, and sunset and sunrise times, then what was an actual year needed for?
Here we approach one of the most difficult questions in the prehistory of the Nazi-Soviet war. While the idea of an immense offensive operation is clear and discussion only to clarifies particular details, it does not seem possible, based on declassified documents, to find the exact planned date of the Red Army’s offensive operations.
Big questions arise from the report memo of March 11, 1941 (“Adjusted plan for strategic deployment of the USSR’s military forces in the west and east”). On the back of page 27 in small, accurate handwriting (presumably by Vatutin, deputies of the chief of the General Staff ), is written: “Commence the attack 12.6.” The phrase is in no way connected with the context (it appears after a description of a task set for the “left flank of the main grouping of the Southwestern Front”) and, in general, seems inappropriate to a document, where all chronological marks are expressed in relative dates connected with the first day of the operation (“on the third day of the operation, using the mobile units, take over Sedlec, and on the fifth day of the operation with crossings on the Vistula River…”).
“There are two wills on the battlefield,” the old Russian saying goes. The dramatic development of the events of the world war did not allow Stalin to prepare for the war in Europe substantially in a sensible way, with the proper arrangements. Sometime in the spring of 1941 they realized in Moscow that they would succeed in striking first only if the Red Army began its offensive no later than August-September, 1941. The top military and political command of the Soviet Union was forced to urgently adjust its earlier-developed plans according to this new reality.
Strictly speaking, the new “Stalin's third plan” did not, from the point of view of operational intent, differ at all from Plan # 2. Large-scale offensive operation was still planned beyond the USSR’s state borders. The May (1941) “Considerations for the plan for strategic deployment” document fully repeats all the prior variants of the war plan against Germany in terms of tasks, main strike directions, terms, and frontiers. In the text of the “Considerations” there appears only one new aspect, but it is very meaningful: “Germany has the possibility to forestall us in deployment and make a sudden strike.” That is exactly why the plan’s developers insist, “by no means give the initiative for action to the German command, forestall the enemy and attack the German army at the moment when it is going to be in the deployment stage and will have insufficient time to organize the front and the interaction of all arms of the service.”
Let me stress again that there are grounds for discussing the particular “aggressiveness” of the May version (1941) of the “Considerations”: the attempt to go ahead of the enemy and not give him the “initiative for action” under any circumstances represents only an elementary demand of common sense and the basics of the art of operations. The benefit of a first strike is too important to give it away voluntarily to the enemy. What’s drastically new is that in May, 1941 the Soviet command was not that certain that they would succeed in pulling it off, so they asked Stalin to perform without delay all the necessary undertakings “without which it is impossible to launch an immediate strike on the enemy both from the air and from the ground.”
On May 24, 1941, elderly Count Schulenburg, the German ambassador in Moscow, sent to Berlin such report: "The fact that this (Stalin`s) external policy is primarily dedicated to prevention of conflict with Germany is proven by the position that the Soviet government has taken in recent weeks, by the tone of the Soviet press, which reviews all events related to Germany in a form that does not generate objections, and by the observance of economic agreements.”
On the same day, May 24, 1941, an hours-long meeting took place in Stalin’s office. The following people participated in it besides Stalin:
- Molotov, deputy head of the government and People’s Commissar for Foreign Affairs
- Timoshenko, People’s Commissar for Defense
- Zhukov, Head of the General Staff
- Vatutin, Head of the Operational Department of the General Staff
- Zhigarev, Head of the Red Army Air Force
- The commanders of forces of the five western border districts and the commanders of the Air Force in those districts.
There were no other representative meetings of the military and political command of the USSR, neither for several months before May 24 nor after that date all the way until the beginning of the war.