Did Russia shoot down the Azerbaijan Airlines plane?

At this point, after the lies of MH-17, I would be very sus of any narrative by both sides TBH.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17​


". . . On the basis of the JIT's conclusions, the governments of the Netherlands and Australia held Russia responsible for the deployment of the Buk installation and began pursuing legal remedies in May 2018.[17][18] The Russian government denied involvement in the shooting down of the aircraft,[13][19][20]"

ROBERT PARRY: Vindicated on MH-17 Reporting​

February 7, 2024
ROBERT PARRY: Vindicated on MH-17 Reporting

CN Founder Robert Parry’s reporting on the MH-17 air disaster was vindicated when the World Court last week refused to blame Russia for shooting down the Malaysian airliner over Ukraine in 2014.
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". . . In a Dutch report released last October, the Netherlands’ Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) reported that the only anti-aircraft weapons in eastern Ukraine capable of bringing down MH-17 at 33,000 feet belonged to the Ukrainian government.

MIVD made that assessment in the context of explaining why commercial aircraft continued to fly over the eastern Ukrainian battle zone in summer 2014. MIVD said that based on “state secret” information, it was known that Ukraine possessed some older but “powerful anti-aircraft systems” and “a number of these systems were located in the eastern part of the country.”

The intelligence agency added that the rebels lacked that capability: “Prior to the crash, the MIVD knew that, in addition to light aircraft artillery, the Separatists also possessed short-range portable air defence systems (man-portable air-defence systems; MANPADS) and that they possibly possessed short-range vehicle-borne air-defence systems. Both types of systems are considered surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). Due to their limited range they do not constitute a danger to civil aviation at cruising altitude.”

One could infer a similar finding by reading a U.S. “Government Assessment” released by the Director of National Intelligence on July 22, 2014, five days after the crash, seeking to cast suspicion on the ethnic Russian rebels and Putin by noting military equipment that Moscow had provided the rebels. But most tellingly the list did not include Buk anti-aircraft missiles. In other words, in the context of trying to blame the rebels and Putin, U.S. intelligence could not put an operational Buk system in the rebels’ hands.

So, perhaps the most logical suspicion would be that the Ukrainian military, then engaged in an offensive in the east and fearing a possible Russian invasion, moved its Buk missile systems up to the front and an undisciplined crew fired a missile at a suspected Russian aircraft, bringing down MH-17 by accident.

That was essentially what I was told by a source who had been briefed by U.S. intelligence analysts in July and August 2014. [See, for instance, Consortiumnews.com’s “Flight 17 Shoot-Down Scenario Shifts” and “The Danger of an MH-17 Cold Case.”]
 
It was a SAM of some sort. The purpose of the investigation from this point forward is to figure out the circumstances of its launch.
On the Russian side how to hide the fact it was one of their SAM's.
 
AZAL flight into airspace that is an active theater of the Ukraine / Russia war. Public flight data unavailable due to active GPS jamming by Russia. Pilots reportedly experience a 'bird strike' as they are coming into Grozny. Passengers reportedly heard one or two loud booms. Next public data we have of the flight is on the other side of Caspian headed towards Kazakhstan with an erratic flight path. Passenger videos taken inside the plane show damage to the wind, possible damage to the plane's interior and flotation gear. Video emerges of the plane before it crashes out of control - no flaps extended and oscillating up and down. Symptoms of total hydraulic failure. Both engines are functioning at the time of the crash - otherwise it would not have made it to the Kazahk coastline. The tail section of the plane has inward puncture marks along the rear control surfaces where the hydraulic systems are located. A flock of birds couldn't cause this. No engines were out otherwise the plane would have been unflyable. Even if somehow an engine disintegrated with the hydraulics out and the plane still functioned those puncture marks would not be located in those positions on the tail.

It was hit by a SAM and now to investigate how it occurred, under which circumstances and who is to blame. That airspace should be closed.

Wrong.
A SAM does not leave little tiny punctures like this.
An engine ingesting a bird and disintegrating does leave exactly this sort of markings.
There are two engines, so one being out from a bird strike would still be able to fly.
Those marks are EXACTLY where a disintegrating engine would have left them.
 

Russia says it was a flock of birds.

View attachment 1057984

You ever see a flock of birds do that to the tail?
Also the plane was flying to Grozny, which was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time.

"
An Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash on Christmas Day has prompted speculation the plane was shot down by Russia after it took a detour of hundreds of miles in the wrong direction and crash-landed with holes in the fuselage.

Russian military bloggers have suggested the plane, which crashed near the Kazakhstan city of Aktau, could have been mistaken for a Ukrainian drone.

The incident, which killed at least 38 people and injured a further 29, took place after a significant detour, which could have been caused by GPS jamming."
I'm surprised there are survivors. Maybe they can shed some light on the matter.
 
You mean other than the shrapnel holes? :cuckoo:

Wrong. The holes are at right angle to the engine so had to come FROM the engine.
SAM missiles to NOT leave shrapnel holes at all, but are contact explosives that wipe out a large section of a plane.
If a SAM were to go off before contact, it would be in front of the plane, so then leave long streaks and NOT tiny little holes.
 
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The front of the plane clearly made contact with the ground and threw debris into the air that would have caused punctures to the tail.
If it had been downed by a SAM, it would have broken up in air and there would have been no survivors.
 

Russia says it was a flock of birds.

View attachment 1057984

You ever see a flock of birds do that to the tail?
Also the plane was flying to Grozny, which was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time.

"
An Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash on Christmas Day has prompted speculation the plane was shot down by Russia after it took a detour of hundreds of miles in the wrong direction and crash-landed with holes in the fuselage.

Russian military bloggers have suggested the plane, which crashed near the Kazakhstan city of Aktau, could have been mistaken for a Ukrainian drone.

The incident, which killed at least 38 people and injured a further 29, took place after a significant detour, which could have been caused by GPS jamming."
Well Russia is in a state of war. A plane “traveling in the wrong direction” would likely get intercepted and taken out if communications was down.

Some people here have been clamoring for war with Russia, well this is exactly the kind of stuff you can expect to happen when nations are in a state of war.
 
Wrong.
A SAM does not leave little tiny punctures like this.
An engine ingesting a bird and disintegrating does leave exactly this sort of markings.
There are two engines, so one being out from a bird strike would still be able to fly.
Those marks are EXACTLY where a disintegrating engine would have left them.

The plane lost all hydraulics. This is clear from it's manner of flight and configuration from the video of it crashing. No hydraulics mean the pilots cannot use the control surfaces to steer the plane. The only way to do so is to reduce power in one engine while doing the opposite in the other to effect turns. You need multiple engines to do this. With no engines you don't fly. With one engine you spiral out of control because you cannot rudder compensate. This plane remained in flight for a significant period of time because it's engines were NOT out.

Ignoring all that, the perpendicular punctures through the rear control surfaces don't match up with engine debris striking the plane. The leading surfaces would have damage, not the undersides like seen.

The engines on modern aircraft are tested for bird strikes to make sure they do not come apart and hopefully continue to function. This was seen in the extreme case of flight 1549 that famously flew through a flock of geese and lost both engines. Neither engine disintegrated. There was no shrapnel. And the pilots were still able to fly the plane since they had working control surfaces.
 
I'm surprised there are survivors. Maybe they can shed some light on the matter.

I'm assuming that the way the plane landed, it was mostly like a landing. The deaths, I'd think, would be from the middle of the plane where people might have got thrown out, and for older people or younger people or people not strapped in properly.
 
Wrong. The holes are at right angle to the engine so had to come FROM the engine.
SAM missiles to NOT leave shrapnel holes at all, but are contact explosives that wipe out a large section of a plane.
If a SAM were to go off before contact, it would be in front of the plane, so then leave long streaks and NOT tiny little holes.

Much of surface to air and air to air missiles are proximity fused - they rely on shrapnel to down their targets. These missiles come with warheads of various sizes and the damage inflicted dictates by such and other circumstances. That a plane can only be blasted apart by a missile and not continue onward is sort of a Hollywood understanding of things.

MH17 came apart pretty much immediately from a SAM hit - but the BUK missile used employed a proximity fuse.

In 2003 a DHL flight into Baghdad was struck by a Strela-3, which can either be proximity or contact fused I think. The plane suffered damage to its wing a loss of hydraulics and relied on working the engine throttles to eventually land the plane.

KAL007 was struck by two air-to-air missiles with proximity fuses. The sounds of the detonations were picked up on the flight recorders. The plane continued flying for some minutes before all control was lost due to hydraulic failures along with internal damage.
 
Wrong. The holes are at right angle to the engine so had to come FROM the engine.
SAM missiles to NOT leave shrapnel holes at all, but are contact explosives that wipe out a large section of a plane.
If a SAM were to go off before contact, it would be in front of the plane, so then leave long streaks and NOT tiny little holes.
You have no clue what you are talking about. SAM'S use proximity fuses, and their warheads are designed to burst in specific patterns to enhance the possibilities of damage.
 
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One of the Azerbaijani sources familiar with Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash told Reuters that preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system. Its communications were paralysed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny, the source said.
 
Well Russia is in a state of war. A plane “traveling in the wrong direction” would likely get intercepted and taken out if communications was down.

Some people here have been clamoring for war with Russia, well this is exactly the kind of stuff you can expect to happen when nations are in a state of war.


I must agree with that!
 

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