DEM vs GOP registered voters in PA from 2020 til now. This is BIG.

[MarathonMike]

You may know that the DEM advantage in registered voters has shrunk by 300,000 since Biden won in 2020. But HOW that lead shrunk is telling. DEMS actually LOST 110,000 registered voters for various reasons. Meanwhile the GOP GAINED 220,.00 new registrants. So just looking at that statistic, who do you think has the momentum in PA?

How Democrats' voter-registration advantage eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024

In March 2021, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Pennsylvania by 630,000. On the eve of the 2024 election, that edge has been cut to 300,000.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[theHawk]

It’s going to be a rout on Election Day, unless they just cheat like crazy. I don’t even think Dems want it o cheat that bad for Kamala.

 

[boevans]

Yet the upsurge in Democratic categories of older and persons of color voters has made up for the perceived loss.

Harris just looks so much better than Trump.

 

[Lisa558]

Yet the upsurge in Democratic categories of older and persons of color voters has made up for the perceived loss.

Harris just looks so much better than Trump.

1) Older people lean Trump.

2) The Dems have lost a substantial percentage of the black vote.

 

[boevans]

1) Older people lean Trump.

2) The Dems have lost a substantial percentage of the black vote.

Yet, none of that negates the truth this week of

Yet the upsurge in Democratic categories of older and persons of color voters has made up for the perceived loss.

Harris just looks so much better than Trump.

 

[boevans]

Yet the upsurge in Democratic categories of older and persons of color voters has made up for the perceived loss.

Harris just looks so much better than Trump.

 

[para bellum]

Yet the upsurge in Democratic categories of older and persons of color voters has made up for the perceived loss.

Harris just looks so much better than Trump.

Where do you get this upsurge?

The 65+ demographic is R+10 according to Pew.
Racial composition of the early votes is not known.

This is PA early votes compared to 2020, 3 days before the election:

 

[boevans]

We are talking abot the last few days, not overall.

Your numbers are failing you, as you will see next week.

PA, MI, WI are blue, and so is the election for President.

 

[Independent thinker]

You may know that the DEM advantage in registered voters has shrunk by 300,000 since Biden won in 2020. But HOW that lead shrunk is telling. DEMS actually LOST 110,000 registered voters for various reasons. Meanwhile the GOP GAINED 220,.00 new registrants. So just looking at that statistic, who do you think has the momentum in PA?

How Democrats' voter-registration advantage eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024

In March 2021, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Pennsylvania by 630,000. On the eve of the 2024 election, that edge has been cut to 300,000.

www.nbcnews.com

I don't think either side should be the farm.

 

[BackAgain]

In PA, a GOP rout of the Dims would be a blessing.

Of course, there is no place in our land where a GOP rout of the Dims wouldn’t be a blessing.

 

[MarathonMike]

I don't think either side should be the farm.

Not counting chickens, just an interesting data point.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Trump must have senior voters turn out in large numbers for him in Pennsylvania, in order to have any chance of winning that state.

That has not happened in Pennsylvania...and it's probably not going to happen.

As a group, older voters almost always vote earlier than younger voters. The fact that registered Republican older voters have not turned out in large numbers in PA yet is bad news for Trump.

From Politico --

Donald Trump is lagging Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania early voting with a critical and once-reliably Republican constituency: seniors.

It’s a warning sign for the former president that reflects early vote data and polling across the battlegrounds, after Republicans won the senior vote in each of the last five presidential elections.

In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older.

The partisan gap is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting were more partisan, and Republicans take that as a good sign. But the GOP still is counting on more of its older voters to show up on Election Day, while Democrats have more votes in the bank.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

 

[MarathonMike]

That has not happened in Pennsylvania...and it's probably not going to happen.

Why probably not going to happen? Is your "feelz" again?

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Why probably not going to happen? Is your "feelz" again?

Old voters vote early. There is no enthusiasm among seniors for Trump, that's why they haven't shown up for him.

They are afraid he will take their Social Security and Medicare away, which he definitely would do.

If they haven't shown up by now, they aren't going to show up.

 

[Lisa558]

Trump must have senior voters turn out in large numbers for him in Pennsylvania, in order to have any chance of winning that state.

That has not happened in Pennsylvania...and it's probably not going to happen.

As a group, older voters almost always vote earlier than younger voters. The fact that registered Republican older voters have not turned out in large numbers in PA yet is bad news for Trump.

From Politico --

Donald Trump is lagging Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania early voting with a critical and once-reliably Republican constituency: seniors.

It’s a warning sign for the former president that reflects early vote data and polling across the battlegrounds, after Republicans won the senior vote in each of the last five presidential elections.

In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older.

The partisan gap is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting were more partisan, and Republicans take that as a good sign. But the GOP still is counting on more of its older voters to show up on Election Day, while Democrats have more votes in the bank.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

But that can be overcome with the number of blacks and Jews who have switched from to red.

 

[Lisa558]

Old voters vote early. There is no enthusiasm among seniors for Trump, that's why they haven't shown up for him.

They are afraid he will take their Social Security and Medicare away, which he definitely would do.

If they haven't shown up by now, they aren't going to show up.

So you’re saying that the Democrat scare tactics that waaaaa…….Trump will take away SS and Medicare is working?

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

But that can be overcome with the number of blacks and Jews who have switched from to red.

Nothing but a horrible assumption on your part....especially since there are a lot more white women than black men and Jews in PA.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

So you’re saying that the Democrat scare tactics that waaaaa…….Trump will take away SS and Medicare is working?

It's not a scare tactic, because it's true.

And it is working.

 

[MarathonMike]

Old voters vote early. There is no enthusiasm among seniors for Trump, that's why they haven't shown up for him.

They are afraid he will take their Social Security and Medicare away, which he definitely would do.

If they haven't shown up by now, they aren't going to show up.

The only thing Trump has definitely said about Social Security is he will eliminate taxes on it. How do you know that a lot of the senior Democrats who voted early didn't cross over and vote for Trump?

 

[Lisa558]

Nothing but a horrible assumption on your part....especially since there are a lot more white women than black men and Jews in PA.

And white men are voting for Trump by a larger margin than white women are for Harris. That also closes the gap.

I think it all comes down to whether PA has more ignorant, gullible voters who are willing to vote for a totally unqualified woman picked for being a Female Black than they have intelligent voters who prefer a man with a successful presidency behind him.