Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

[skookerasbil]

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf



The Fordam study..................RASMUSSEN #1.








outliers

dude, seriously, stop, you are not helping the cause

Dive bro...........listen up. You need to lighten up a bit..........go over to People.com if you're more into drama.

 

[rightwinger]

Hey Skook

Nobody cares about your juvenile paintbrush art

Makes you look like some idiot walking down the street talking to himself

Just thought I would help you out

kinda sucks when the k00ks are made to look like dumbass sheep...... huh s0n??????



Heres to you s0n................

Sorry skook..

But most people look at your inane posts and mutter...."this guy is ******* crazy"

Don't see anyone standing up for you skook

 

[rightwinger]

Can anyone here stand up and say they enjoy the Skooks posts???



Anyone???

 

[EriktheRed]

Can anyone here stand up and say they enjoy the Skooks posts???



Anyone???

Hell, I got the nimrod on ignore.

 

[skookerasbil]

Can anyone here stand up and say they enjoy the Skooks posts???



Anyone???

As the great Bob grant said once.........."you confront the absurd by being even more absurd."

Dont worry s0n.............Im not going anywhere. Im way too busy and have real responsibilities in life..........to spend 23 hours a day on here like you and the other k00ks. I'll continue to post up my gay MSPaint masterpieces because they highlight the level of k00k in the posts by the k00ks.

 

[skookerasbil]

Oh.......and did I mention the DISAPPROVE #'s for Obama today???

 

[rightwinger]

Can anyone here stand up and say they enjoy the Skooks posts???



Anyone???

As the great Bob grant said once.........."you confront the absurd by being even more absurd."

Dont worry s0n.............Im not going anywhere. Im way too busy and have real responsibilities in life..........to spend 23 hours a day on here like you and the other k00ks. I'll continue to post up my gay MSPaint masterpieces because they highlight the level of k00k in the posts by the k00ks.

Sorry Skook
Guess you have your own sick agenda.

Since nobody else buys into it, it is in fact, yours and yours alone

 

[ozzmdj]

Poll: Obama personal popularity at new low
By: Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent
10/15/09 6:57 AM EDT
A new Gallup poll shows that the number of people who have a favorable impression of Barack Obama has fallen to its lowest point since he became president. Fifty-six percent say they have a favorable impression of Obama, versus 40 percent who say they have an unfavorable impression. (Four percent say they have no opinion.) Historically, a president's personal favorable rating has often been higher than his job approval rating; right now, Gallup has Obama's job approval at 52 percent.

In January, just before Obama took office, 78 percent of those surveyed by Gallup had a favorable impression of him, with just 18 percent having an unfavorable impression. By March, the favorable number had fallen to 69 percent, where it would stay virtually unchanged for four months: 67 percent in May, and 66 percent in July. Now, it has tumbled ten points to 56 percent.

Obama's favorable rating has fallen most markedly among Republicans: In January, 60 percent said they had a favorable impression of him, versus just 19 percent today. More ominous for the president's political prospects is the fact that he is also down significantly among independents, from 75 percent in January to 52 percent today. Among Democrats, Obama has slipped a little but is still extremely strong, going from 95 percent in January to 89 percent today.

Gallup points out that in this latest survey, Hillary Clinton is now more popular than Obama. Sixty-two percent say they have a favorable impression of the Secretary of State, versus 34 percent who have an unfavorable impression. That's a big change from the height of the battle for the Democratic nomination last year; in February 2008, just 48 percent had a favorable impression of Mrs. Clinton, versus 49 percent who had an unfavorable impression.

 

[Vast LWC]

Ooooooops!!!!!!

public self pwn once again s0n...................

How Did We Do?
Thursday, November 06, 2008 Email to a Friend ShareThisAdvertisement
The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 46%. We are pleased to report that those figures precisely matched the actual election returns.

A Fordham University analysis put Rasmussen Reports on top of the list for accuracy among 23 national pollsters.

Oooooooops!!!!!!!

Except for the fact that the numbers for those result were as of Nov 5th, at which point all the votes had not been counted, and the difference was still at 6%.

The final tally, after all the votes were counted, was 7.2%.

Now what was that phrase you used? Oh yeah

PWNED SOn.... Ooooops!!!

Now go crawl back into your hole and let the adults continue the conversation, k?

 

[Vast LWC]

"Only main difference" is an odd phrase in polling. Every nuance of every question liicits a particular bias in the respondent as well as the tone of the voice of the interviewer, time of day, sequence of questions and just about anything else that one may care to cite.

MSNBC Polls will general illicite a more liberal response from the whole universe than will FOX News. Are we to believe that the poll from each actually always taps in to only the group more sympathetic to the famous political leaning of either or both? It is more likely that the biases of the pollers are consistant than the are the people polled.

For this reason all polls are valuable as they are what they are. It is the people who review each of the polls that need to be aware of the biases. Averaging the polls does not average the opinion. It averages the bias. Averaging the bias is worthless. Read the polls individually and know that that the biases exist.

Read the trends exposed by the polls. If Obama's popularity changes by 3 points in all polls regardless of the level reflected by the individual polls, something is happening. Measure the change, not the level. This is true whether the change is negative, like August, or positive, like September.

Reading a poll and seeing only that which supports your own bias is myopic.

Look, there are a lot of polling organizations out there. I am not saying that Rasmussen changes it's numbers, what I am saying is that, as per their own site, which was directly quoted earlier in this thread multiple times, their methodology leads to higher negative numbers, in general.

In addition, that methodology is not used by any other polling agency, and most importantly, has not been used historically by any other polling agency.

This makes Rasmussen an outlier, by their own admission, from all the other polls.

As I posted earlier, RCP has been proven to provide more reliable numbers, for whatever reason, than Rasmussen.

I'm not claiming Rasmussen, or anyone else for that matter is actually changing numbers.

What I'm saying, is if you want the numbers to actually mean anything, you must be able to compare them to other historical numbers in similar situations, like Reagan in 1981 for instance.

And if you are goinig to do that with any degree of reliability, you must use the same methodology, or else any such comparisons become meaningless, making the numbers themselves meaningless.

 

[Vast LWC]

A new Gallup poll shows that the number of people who have a favorable impression of Barack Obama has fallen to its lowest point since he became president. Fifty-six percent say they have a favorable impression of Obama, versus 40 percent who say they have an unfavorable impression. (Four percent say they have no opinion.) Historically, a president's personal favorable rating has often been higher than his job approval rating; right now, Gallup has Obama's job approval at 52 percent.

52 Percent, about the same as Reagan at this point in his presidency.

Sounds good to me.

 

[NYcarbineer]

[How Did We Do?
Thursday, November 06, 2008 Email to a Friend ShareThisAdvertisement
The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 46%. We are pleased to report that those figures precisely matched the actual election returns.

A Fordham University analysis put Rasmussen Reports on top of the list for accuracy among 23 national pollsters.

The actual election was not 52 to 46, and what does the election poll have to do with approval polls?
BTW

The Fordham study you cite had Rasmussen actually tied with Pew Research, and Pew's last approval poll has Obama at 52 - 36 for a plus 16 net...

...so you should be as happy with Pew Research as you are with Rasmussen.

 

[Vast LWC]

[How Did We Do?
Thursday, November 06, 2008 Email to a Friend ShareThisAdvertisement
The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 46%. We are pleased to report that those figures precisely matched the actual election returns.

A Fordham University analysis put Rasmussen Reports on top of the list for accuracy among 23 national pollsters.

The actual election was not 52 to 46, and what does the election poll have to do with approval polls?
BTW

The Fordham study you cite had Rasmussen actually tied with Pew Research, and Pew's last approval poll has Obama at 52 - 36 for a plus 16 net...

...so you should be as happy with Pew Research as you are with Rasmussen.

Final 2008 Election Results: Barack Obama beat John McCain by 7.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Rasmussen called 6%. 1.3% away from the result.

IPSOS, CNN, and FoxNews (Surprisingly) were all a full point closer to the actual results with 8%. .3% away from the result.

And the RCP Average had 7.6%. .3% away from the result.

and NBC News and IDB/TIPP had 8%. .7% away from the result.

The whole "Rasmussen is most accurate" claim is a bunch of malarkey, as 6 major polling agencies had closer, and the RCP average was closer.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

 

[NYcarbineer]

[How Did We Do?
Thursday, November 06, 2008 Email to a Friend ShareThisAdvertisement
The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 46%. We are pleased to report that those figures precisely matched the actual election returns.

A Fordham University analysis put Rasmussen Reports on top of the list for accuracy among 23 national pollsters.

The actual election was not 52 to 46, and what does the election poll have to do with approval polls?
BTW

The Fordham study you cite had Rasmussen actually tied with Pew Research, and Pew's last approval poll has Obama at 52 - 36 for a plus 16 net...

...so you should be as happy with Pew Research as you are with Rasmussen.

Final 2008 Election Results: Barack Obama beat John McCain by 7.3%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Rasmussen called 6%. 1.3% away from the result.

IPSOS, CNN, and FoxNews (Surprisingly) were all a full point closer to the actual results with 8%. .3% away from the result.

And the RCP Average had 7.6%. .3% away from the result.

and NBC News and IDB/TIPP had 8%. .7% away from the result.

The whole "Rasmussen is most accurate" claim is a bunch of malarkey, as 6 major polling agencies had closer, and the RCP average was closer.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

It's also irrelevant because an approval poll is not an election poll and Rasmussen was using essentially the same method as everyone else in the election, which it is not doing with approval polling.

 

[Vast LWC]

The actual election was not 52 to 46, and what does the election poll have to do with approval polls?
BTW

The Fordham study you cite had Rasmussen actually tied with Pew Research, and Pew's last approval poll has Obama at 52 - 36 for a plus 16 net...

...so you should be as happy with Pew Research as you are with Rasmussen.

Final 2008 Election Results: Barack Obama beat John McCain by 7.3%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Rasmussen called 6%. 1.3% away from the result.

IPSOS, CNN, and FoxNews (Surprisingly) were all a full point closer to the actual results with 8%. .3% away from the result.

And the RCP Average had 7.6%. .3% away from the result.

and NBC News and IDB/TIPP had 8%. .7% away from the result.

The whole "Rasmussen is most accurate" claim is a bunch of malarkey, as 6 major polling agencies had closer, and the RCP average was closer.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

It's also irrelevant because an approval poll is not an election poll and Rasmussen was using essentially the same method as everyone else in the election, which it is not doing with approval polling.

Indeed, you may in fact be correct on that point, but I was simply refuting the assertion that has been made dozens of times on this thread that Rasmussen is "more reliable" than other polling agencies.

I was also pointing out that by their standard, which you correctly assert is probably irrelevant, Rasmussen trails behind many other polling agencies.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Final 2008 Election Results: Barack Obama beat John McCain by 7.3%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Rasmussen called 6%. 1.3% away from the result.

IPSOS, CNN, and FoxNews (Surprisingly) were all a full point closer to the actual results with 8%. .3% away from the result.

And the RCP Average had 7.6%. .3% away from the result.

and NBC News and IDB/TIPP had 8%. .7% away from the result.

The whole "Rasmussen is most accurate" claim is a bunch of malarkey, as 6 major polling agencies had closer, and the RCP average was closer.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

It's also irrelevant because an approval poll is not an election poll and Rasmussen was using essentially the same method as everyone else in the election, which it is not doing with approval polling.

Indeed, you may in fact be correct on that point, but I was simply refuting the assertion that has been made dozens of times on this thread that Rasmussen is "more reliable" than other polling agencies.

I was also pointing out that by their standard, which you correctly assert is probably irrelevant, Rasmussen trails behind many other polling agencies.

The simplest fact is no one knows who is more 'reliable' in an approval poll because there is no real outcome to compare it to.

Secondly, because all polls have a margin of error somewheres around 3 pts. once you start talking about 1 poll being a point or 1/2 a point closer than another compared to an actual election result, that is as likely to be nothing more than random chance as anything else.

 

[Zona]

is he closer to 60 percent?

 

[skookerasbil]

Oh.........oh...................

and wait'll independents get aload of this gem...............


Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'
Despite signs of broader economic recovery, number of foreclosure filings hit a record high in the third quarter - a sign the plague is still spreading

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday.

"They were the worst three months of all time," said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes.

During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter -- whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, which is a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008.

 

[skookerasbil]

clearly.......its going to be elevator up for Obama with this sizzling economy!!!!

 

[skookerasbil]

Oh.........oh...................

and wait'll independents get aload of this gem...............


Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'
Despite signs of broader economic recovery, number of foreclosure filings hit a record high in the third quarter - a sign the plague is still spreading

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday.

"They were the worst three months of all time," said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes.

During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter -- whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, which is a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008.

just to make sure the k00ks got to see this awesome news!!!!!