Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

[flacaltenn]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Ain't you smart enough to know what "rallying your base" sounds and looks like? This is just the Olde "Woe is US" strategy. To get them to the voting booths.

With Pelosi and the cuckoo at the DNC -- the only way you're win anything is to run candidates to the RIGHT of most every Dem serving in Congress and 1/2 the Republicans.. Like you did in Penn. and Virginia and Alabama. YOU were so busy WINNING --- you didn't recognize your party is splitting into 2 or 3 pieces.. .

And guess what? Your avg leftist doesn't care if they sound like Reagan... To you warriors -- it's JUST about winning ---- ain't it? When's the last time YOU discussed any REAL issues or principles that would sell to Independents and undecideds???

Duh, yes I grasp the psychology of rallying the base. However, the polls can't be ignored.

The polls are crap since folks buried their landlines. And since INDEPENDENTS became BIGGER than BOTH your sucky parties combined. They are not WEIGHTING Independents/3rd parties in MOST of these crappy polls. They are garbage.

ESPECIALLY when the polls are between "TWO UNNAMED GENERIC CANDIDATE" How moronic is that? To think that the candidate doesn't matter. Well I GUESS to a leftist -- ANY candidate that WINS is great ---- RIGHT?

Thank God you're a tiny fraction of the electorate with a lot of time to melt down on line..

 

[Lakhota]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Frank Luntz, seriously?


He's the elites Paul Joseph Goebbels. No intelligent person takes his manipulation of the pulic opinion and attitudes anymore seriously than they do the journalistic stylings of HuffPo or Breitbart.



Did you learn nothing with the last election. Polls mean about as much as your vote does.

You do know that HuffPo is basically an outlet/clearinghouse for other news sources, don't you?

 

[BuckToothMoron]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Actually it is almost a forgone conclusion they will lose at least one house. The incumbent party usually fairs poorly in non presidential election years. Slick Willie had both house his first 2 years, but not his last 6. Obama lost control of congress too. So you might as well post the sun will rise in the east and set in the West. Astute political observers know that it is nearly impossible to hold both house more than 2 years with an incumbent president. Duh.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Democrats have the winning trifecta.

Gun confiscation
Raise taxes
Open borders

What could go wrong with this winning hand?

 

[Lakhota]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Ain't you smart enough to know what "rallying your base" sounds and looks like? This is just the Olde "Woe is US" strategy. To get them to the voting booths.

With Pelosi and the cuckoo at the DNC -- the only way you're win anything is to run candidates to the RIGHT of most every Dem serving in Congress and 1/2 the Republicans.. Like you did in Penn. and Virginia and Alabama. YOU were so busy WINNING --- you didn't recognize your party is splitting into 2 or 3 pieces.. .

And guess what? Your avg leftist doesn't care if they sound like Reagan... To you warriors -- it's JUST about winning ---- ain't it? When's the last time YOU discussed any REAL issues or principles that would sell to Independents and undecideds???

Duh, yes I grasp the psychology of rallying the base. However, the polls can't be ignored.

The polls are crap since folks buried their landlines. And since INDEPENDENTS became BIGGER than BOTH your sucky parties combined. They are not WEIGHTING Independents/3rd parties in MOST of these crappy polls. They are garbage.

ESPECIALLY when the polls are between "TWO UNNAMED GENERIC CANDIDATE" How moronic is that? To think that the candidate doesn't matter. Well I GUESS to a leftist -- ANY candidate that WINS is great ---- RIGHT?

Thank God you're a tiny fraction of the electorate with a lot of time to melt down on line..

I may be logged in 24/7, but I spend less time posting on this board than you. I chuckle at your long-winded bullshit. I just wish I was half as smart as you think you are. Maybe someday I'll also be a legend in my own mind. BTW, polls still have relevance.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

I think that the Dems will either pick up the House or the Senate in 2018. That's the trend so far in the special elections. But in 2020, the Dems have one candidate that can defeat Trump that they might present and that is the old VP. They have another one but they won't ever present the more moderates. You can forget Hillary, stick a fork in her, she's done.

 

[MisterBeale]

 

[frigidweirdo]

View attachment 186935

Frank Luntz is having a hard time rationalizing the possibility of a second term for President Trump.

He's about as conservative as toro.

Here it comes.

Always show Rasmussen and none of the others.

No one else gets even close to 50%, the last three before this were below 40%, his average is 38.4%, Obama's was 47.9%

You don't like it so you discount it.

That's what the Hildabeastie did too.

Good.

It's not that I don't like it, it's that it doesn't seem to represent reality.

All the other polls say one thing, Rasmussen says something completely different which always seems to benefit the right.... hmmm.... what's the point?

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Huff po is self soothing again.

 

[flacaltenn]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Ain't you smart enough to know what "rallying your base" sounds and looks like? This is just the Olde "Woe is US" strategy. To get them to the voting booths.

With Pelosi and the cuckoo at the DNC -- the only way you're win anything is to run candidates to the RIGHT of most every Dem serving in Congress and 1/2 the Republicans.. Like you did in Penn. and Virginia and Alabama. YOU were so busy WINNING --- you didn't recognize your party is splitting into 2 or 3 pieces.. .

And guess what? Your avg leftist doesn't care if they sound like Reagan... To you warriors -- it's JUST about winning ---- ain't it? When's the last time YOU discussed any REAL issues or principles that would sell to Independents and undecideds???

Duh, yes I grasp the psychology of rallying the base. However, the polls can't be ignored.

The polls are crap since folks buried their landlines. And since INDEPENDENTS became BIGGER than BOTH your sucky parties combined. They are not WEIGHTING Independents/3rd parties in MOST of these crappy polls. They are garbage.

ESPECIALLY when the polls are between "TWO UNNAMED GENERIC CANDIDATE" How moronic is that? To think that the candidate doesn't matter. Well I GUESS to a leftist -- ANY candidate that WINS is great ---- RIGHT?

Thank God you're a tiny fraction of the electorate with a lot of time to melt down on line..

I may be logged in 24/7, but I spend less time posting on this board than you. I chuckle at your long-winded bullshit. I just wish I was half as smart as you think you are. Maybe someday I'll also be a legend in my own mind. BTW, polls still have relevance.

But yet you choose to ignore any real discussion or debate and go personal. Not fooling anyone. I gave you TOPICAL DISCUSSION about polling and generic candidate polls and winning being the goal ---- and all you got is ----- "polls are still swell"??? Well they are not. Most of the major pollsters KNOW that. And they are losing customers to firms with different ways, higher tech ways to divine popular opinion..

Can't discuss that either can ya???

 

[flacaltenn]

How moronic is it to post HEADLINES or party strategies or even USMB OPs on "UN-named Generic Candidates"?? Anyone think this worth rat droppings?

 

[usmbguest5318]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

Given the quantity of people who are registered as Democrats and assuming they predominantly vote for Democrats, if there is an "historic turnout from the extreme left in November," it really won't much matter what Republicans.
http://www.people-press.org/2016/09...election-two-coalitions-moving-further-apart/

​

The percentages shown in the first charts above may seem close; however, when considered in the context of there being some 200M+ registered voters, it's not at all miniscule and miniscule or not, it's certainly enough.

Independents will make the difference as goes Democratic and Republican primacy following the midterm election. I don't know what way Independents predominantly lean as goes Trump and his policies.

Scuttlebutt currently suggests that economic satisfaction will drive how people vote in November. The Indies whom I know, myself included, however, are well aware that despite Trump's tax cuts, they're no better off economically than they were before his tax cuts; that is to say their (and my) lifestyle hasn't improved, let alone materially improved.

On the other hand, Trump's proposed tariffs and the targeted retorts to them are not fondly received by the public in general, even though slightly more folks think the steel and aluminum tariffs may be helpful to some extent.

​

Looking at the "tariff" chart above, one sees that Independents range from about even to construing Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs as more hurtful than helpful.

Furthermore, In a survey conducted last fall, the Chicago Council on Public Affairs found that 72% of Americans thought trade is good for the U.S. economy, 78% thought it benefits consumers like themselves, and 57% thought it helps create jobs in the United States. Even more disconcerting for GOP prospects this fall is that the same survey found that 48% of Republicans favor free trade. Even core Trump supporters joined the pro-trade parade: 62% said it was good for the economy, 68% said it benefited consumers, and nearly half (48%) saw trade as good for job creation.

IMO, the tariff matter will greatly outweigh the tax cuts. I think that because the tax cuts show up as relatively small sums in one's paycheck, whereas tariffs' effects are "in your face." People notice price increases for goods they routinely purchase. Businesspeople notice that their sales of tariff-subject goods are off from what they were prior to the tariff.

At the moment, Trump's tariffs are but proposals. That they are is problematic in multiple ways:

• Nobody likes the uncertainty their being proposed creates.
• People who have seen incremental increases in their paychecks due to the tax cut will be pissed if they see the gains evaporate due to their having to pay higher prices for goods they were already buying prior to the tax cut. What the "lord" given in a tax cut is pointless if "he" taketh it away via tariff-imposed higher prices.
• And if the avoe aren't bad enough, there's also the impact on of those folks who received pay raises whereby the raise pushed them into the bottom layer of a higher tax rate bracket. Why? Because (1) the increase in one's statutory tax rate is greater than the tax cut one received, unless one is in the top tax bracket, and (2) everyone's tax cut is a decreasing cut -- the cut was designed to eventually disappear and eventually become a tax increase for all but taxpayers in the highest income/tax bracket.
  • Trump's tax plan's Income tax brackets (S= Single filers; M = Married and/or Joint filers)
    • 10% bracket
      • S -- $0 - $9,525
      • M -- $0 - $19,050
    • 12% bracket
      • S -- $9,525 - $38,700
      • M -- $19,050 - $77,400
    • 22% bracket
      • S -- $38,700 - $82,500
      • M -- $77,400 - $165,000
    • 24% bracket
      • S -- $82,500 - $157,500
      • M -- $165,000 - $315,000
    • 32% bracket
      • S -- $157,500 - $200,000
      • M -- $315,000 - $400,000
    • 35% bracket
      • S -- $200,000 - $500,000
      • M -- $400,000 - $600,000
    • 37% bracket
      • S -- $500,000+
      • M -- $600,000+
  • The GOP Tax Bill’s Estimated Effects In 2018
    
    
    
    
  • The GOP Tax Bill’s Estimated Effects In 2027
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • Obviously, I have no idea how many folks will be pushed from one bracket to the next, but it doesn't take much to see that as little as a 2% increase in at the cash register will wipe out whatever benefit most taxpayers, the middle income ones, realized from them. Thus, unless those taxpayers receive from corporations benefiting from the tariffs dividend payments that exceed the price increases, the tax cut was of no net value to those taxpayers. (Changes in a corporation's stock price don't matter because unlike taxes and dividends, they are unrealized gains. That is, they are not cash transaction events.)

Now one can think whatever one wants as goes the GOP's prospects this fall; however, insofar as I think most Independents fall into the middle income/tax brackets, education levels more than income predicted the likelihood of one's (a class of voter's) supporting Trump and his policies, and Independents overall are more educated than are Trumpkins (see also: Behind Trump’s victory: Divisions by race, gender, education), I'm of the mind that the GOP will not fare well at the voting booth this fall. I think, furthermore, that McConnell, Cruz and the GOP strategists who provide them far more precise "pulse of the people" information and analysis that is made public are well aware of the same set of realities that I've outlined above.

 

[Lakhota]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Ain't you smart enough to know what "rallying your base" sounds and looks like? This is just the Olde "Woe is US" strategy. To get them to the voting booths.

With Pelosi and the cuckoo at the DNC -- the only way you're win anything is to run candidates to the RIGHT of most every Dem serving in Congress and 1/2 the Republicans.. Like you did in Penn. and Virginia and Alabama. YOU were so busy WINNING --- you didn't recognize your party is splitting into 2 or 3 pieces.. .

And guess what? Your avg leftist doesn't care if they sound like Reagan... To you warriors -- it's JUST about winning ---- ain't it? When's the last time YOU discussed any REAL issues or principles that would sell to Independents and undecideds???

Duh, yes I grasp the psychology of rallying the base. However, the polls can't be ignored.

The polls are crap since folks buried their landlines. And since INDEPENDENTS became BIGGER than BOTH your sucky parties combined. They are not WEIGHTING Independents/3rd parties in MOST of these crappy polls. They are garbage.

ESPECIALLY when the polls are between "TWO UNNAMED GENERIC CANDIDATE" How moronic is that? To think that the candidate doesn't matter. Well I GUESS to a leftist -- ANY candidate that WINS is great ---- RIGHT?

Thank God you're a tiny fraction of the electorate with a lot of time to melt down on line..

I may be logged in 24/7, but I spend less time posting on this board than you. I chuckle at your long-winded bullshit. I just wish I was half as smart as you think you are. Maybe someday I'll also be a legend in my own mind. BTW, polls still have relevance.

But yet you choose to ignore any real discussion or debate and go personal. Not fooling anyone. I gave you TOPICAL DISCUSSION about polling and generic candidate polls and winning being the goal ---- and all you got is ----- "polls are still swell"??? Well they are not. Most of the major pollsters KNOW that. And they are losing customers to firms with different ways, higher tech ways to divine popular opinion..

Can't discuss that either can ya???

You're the one who went "personal" on me - as usual. Debating you would be somewhat like trying to debate Trump. I don't waste my time trying to split hairs with rigid closed minds and know-it-alls. It would please me if you never responded to any of my posts. I've considered putting you on ignore. Your pompous bullshit is boring. Does anyone else ever accuse you of lecturing and preaching?

 

[ptbw forever]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Ain't you smart enough to know what "rallying your base" sounds and looks like? This is just the Olde "Woe is US" strategy. To get them to the voting booths.

With Pelosi and the cuckoo at the DNC -- the only way you're win anything is to run candidates to the RIGHT of most every Dem serving in Congress and 1/2 the Republicans.. Like you did in Penn. and Virginia and Alabama. YOU were so busy WINNING --- you didn't recognize your party is splitting into 2 or 3 pieces.. .

And guess what? Your avg leftist doesn't care if they sound like Reagan... To you warriors -- it's JUST about winning ---- ain't it? When's the last time YOU discussed any REAL issues or principles that would sell to Independents and undecideds???

All they care about is using and abusing white people.

They have absolutely no political platform.

 

[ptbw forever]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

Given the quantity of people who are registered as Democrats and assuming they predominantly vote for Democrats, if there is an "historic turnout from the extreme left in November," it really won't much matter what Republicans.

​

The percentages shown in the first charts above may seem close; however, when considered in the context of there being some 200M+ registered voters, it's not at all miniscule and miniscule or not, it's certainly enough.

Independents will make the difference as goes Democratic and Republican primacy following the midterm election. I don't know what way Independents predominantly lean as goes Trump and his policies.

Scuttlebutt currently suggests that economic satisfaction will drive how people vote in November. The Indies whom I know, myself included, however, are well aware that despite Trump's tax cuts, they're no better off economically than they were before his tax cuts; that is to say their (and my) lifestyle hasn't improved, let alone materially improved.

On the other hand, Trump's proposed tariffs and the targeted retorts to them are not fondly received by the public in general, even though slightly more folks think the steel and aluminum tariffs may be helpful to some extent.

​

Looking at the "tariff" chart above, one sees that Independents range from about even to construing Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs as more hurtful than helpful.

Furthermore, In a survey conducted last fall, the Chicago Council on Public Affairs found that 72% of Americans thought trade is good for the U.S. economy, 78% thought it benefits consumers like themselves, and 57% thought it helps create jobs in the United States. Even more disconcerting for GOP prospects this fall is that the same survey found that 48% of Republicans favor free trade. Even core Trump supporters joined the pro-trade parade: 62% said it was good for the economy, 68% said it benefited consumers, and nearly half (48%) saw trade as good for job creation.

IMO, the tariff matter will greatly outweigh the tax cuts. I think that because the tax cuts show up as relatively small sums in one's paycheck, whereas tariffs' effects are "in your face." People notice price increases for goods they routinely purchase. Businesspeople notice that their sales of tariff-subject goods are off from what they were prior to the tariff.

At the moment, Trump's tariffs are but proposals. That they are is problematic in multiple ways:

• Nobody likes the uncertainty their being proposed creates.
• People who have seen incremental increases in their paychecks due to the tax cut will be pissed if they see the gains evaporate due to their having to pay higher prices for goods they were already buying prior to the tax cut. What the "lord" given in a tax cut is pointless if "he" taketh it away via tariff-imposed higher prices.
• And if the avoe aren't bad enough, there's also the impact on of those folks who received pay raises whereby the raise pushed them into the bottom layer of a higher tax rate bracket. Why? Because (1) the increase in one's statutory tax rate is greater than the tax cut one received, unless one is in the top tax bracket, and (2) everyone's tax cut is a decreasing cut -- the cut was designed to eventually disappear and eventually become a tax increase for all but taxpayers in the highest income/tax bracket.
  • Trump's tax plan's Income tax brackets (S= Single filers; M = Married and/or Joint filers)
    • 10% bracket
      • S -- $0 - $9,525
      • M -- $0 - $19,050
    • 12% bracket
      • S -- $9,525 - $38,700
      • M -- $19,050 - $77,400
    • 22% bracket
      • S -- $38,700 - $82,500
      • M -- $77,400 - $165,000
    • 24% bracket
      • S -- $82,500 - $157,500
      • M -- $165,000 - $315,000
    • 32% bracket
      • S -- $157,500 - $200,000
      • M -- $315,000 - $400,000
    • 35% bracket
      • S -- $200,000 - $500,000
      • M -- $400,000 - $600,000
    • 37% bracket
      • S -- $500,000+
      • M -- $600,000+
  • The GOP Tax Bill’s Estimated Effects In 2018
    
    View attachment 186941
    
    
  • The GOP Tax Bill’s Estimated Effects In 2027
    
    View attachment 186942
    
    
  • Obviously, I have no idea how many folks will be pushed from one bracket to the next, but it doesn't take much to see that as little as a 2% increase in at the cash register will wipe out whatever benefit most taxpayers, the middle income ones, realized from them. Thus, unless those taxpayers receive from corporations benefiting from the tariffs dividend payments that exceed the price increases, the tax cut was of no net value to those taxpayers. (Changes in a corporation's stock price don't matter because unlike taxes and dividends, they are unrealized gains. That is, they are not cash transaction events.)

Now one can think whatever one wants as goes the GOP's prospects this fall; however, insofar as I think most Independents fall into the middle income/tax brackets, education levels more than income predicted the likelihood of one's (a class of voter's) supporting Trump and his policies, and Independents overall are more educated than are Trumpkins (see also: Behind Trump’s victory: Divisions by race, gender, education), I'm of the mind that the GOP will not fare well at the voting booth this fall. I think, furthermore, that McConnell, Cruz and the GOP strategists who provide them far more precise "pulse of the people" information and analysis that is made public are well aware of the same set of realities that I've outlined above.

There isn't such a thing as a truly educated Democrat, and there damn sure isn't such an animal as a Democrat voting educated independent.

 

[Daryl Hunt]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Ain't you smart enough to know what "rallying your base" sounds and looks like? This is just the Olde "Woe is US" strategy. To get them to the voting booths.

With Pelosi and the cuckoo at the DNC -- the only way you're win anything is to run candidates to the RIGHT of most every Dem serving in Congress and 1/2 the Republicans.. Like you did in Penn. and Virginia and Alabama. YOU were so busy WINNING --- you didn't recognize your party is splitting into 2 or 3 pieces.. .

And guess what? Your avg leftist doesn't care if they sound like Reagan... To you warriors -- it's JUST about winning ---- ain't it? When's the last time YOU discussed any REAL issues or principles that would sell to Independents and undecideds???

All they care about is using and abusing white people.

They have absolutely no political platform.

Oh, I agree that they have no political platform. But when they finally find it, look out. The only Platform the Republicans have is that they give to the Rich and take from the Grand Kids. There isn't a Fiscal Conservative in the whole lot. It did sound good going in. But going out, it's a disaster. The last Budget is just too close to the 2018 mid elections. If the Dems come up with a good sounding Platform (whether they really believe it or not) there is going to be quite a change in congress. Remember, the Reps made it sound like they knew how to do a budget where they were fiscally responsible. They aren't and the voters know it now. This is going to be the #1 reason for people voting one way or another unless they are just blindly pulling either the blue or the red lever.

And it's not just the Dems that care about abusing while people. The Reps are doing a bang up job in that arena as well.

 

[miketx]

“The Republicans are in deep trouble.”

A conservative pollster has some bad news for the GOP: President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers could cost the party control of both houses of Congress.

“I think the Republicans are in deep trouble in the House and the Senate as well,” Frank Luntz said on Sunday on Fox News. “If the election were held today, frankly, I think Republicans would lose both.”

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted the party was facing a “challenging” year.

“We know the wind is going to be in our face,” he told Kentucky Today. “We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued an even starker warning last month.

“If conservatives are complacent, and mark my words, we are going to see historic turnout from the extreme left in November,” Cruz told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in early March. “Which means if conservatives stay home, we have the potential, we could lose both houses of Congress.”

More: Conservative Pollster Sounds The Alarm: GOP Could Lose Both House And Senate

Frank Luntz's predictions are also echoed by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and others.

Another attempt to sway an election.

 

[protectionist]

Always show Rasmussen and none of the others.

No one else gets even close to 50%, the last three before this were below 40%, his average is 38.4%, Obama's was 47.9%

Trump has been over 48% on the economy all along (on ALL polls) Some of his other achievements are also lauded. Attacking Syria. ISIS defeated. US energy production up; prices down. Muslim ban upheld by SCOTUS. etc etc.

When Trump gets into a 2020 election debate he will have a lot of ammunition to speak.

 

[protectionist]

Another attempt to sway an election.

They attempted in 2016.

 

[protectionist]

Oh, I agree that they have no political platform. But when they finally find it, look out. The only Platform the Republicans have is that they give to the Rich and take from the Grand Kids. There isn't a Fiscal Conservative in the whole lot. It did sound good going in. But going out, it's a disaster. The last Budget is just too close to the 2018 mid elections. If the Dems come up with a good sounding Platform (whether they really believe it or not) there is going to be quite a change in congress. Remember, the Reps made it sound like they knew how to do a budget where they were fiscally responsible. They aren't and the voters know it now. This is going to be the #1 reason for people voting one way or another unless they are just blindly pulling either the blue or the red lever.

And it's not just the Dems that care about abusing while people. The Reps are doing a bang up job in that arena as well.

The Democrats cannot come up with a good sounding platform. Their platform is deprive Americans of jobs, by bringing in millions of poor foreigners, and giving them low wage jobs and welfare. And endangering Americans, by pandering to Muslims, and making everything a gun-free zone (green light for terrorists)

On the contrary >>

Trump’s first year: a list of his top 82 accomplishments