Have any of you considered the likely consequences of the US shooting down the Chinese balloon? Here is a logical thought sequence:
1. Was it accidental that the balloon flew over the US? NO
2. If not, what was its purpose?
a. to spy on US military installations in plain sight? NO
b. to provoke a reaction from the US? YES
3. What US reactions would be beneficial to China?
a. Hysterical saber rattling showing the US to be a war mongering nation? YES
b. Providing China with a pretext for shooting down foreign objects over its claimed territory? YES
4. Which external territories are claimed by China? TAIWAN and South China Sea
5. Would shooting down foreign objects aid a Chinese invasion of these territories? YES
6. With the US so invested in the war in Ukraine, would it willing and able to stop a Chinese invasion? NO
7. Given these circumstances, will the Chinese invade these territories? YES
8. What would be the consequences of a successful Chinese invasion?
a. Loss of a truly democratic and faithful ally of the US? YES
b. Chinese domination of the world's computer chip manufacturing capability? YES
c. Loss of free shipping routes and US military influence in Eastern Asia? YES
Please comment and/or provide your own analysis. It seems that the Chinese are playing chess while the US is playing checkers.
1. Was it accidental that the balloon flew over the US? NO
2. If not, what was its purpose?
a. to spy on US military installations in plain sight? NO
b. to provoke a reaction from the US? YES
3. What US reactions would be beneficial to China?
a. Hysterical saber rattling showing the US to be a war mongering nation? YES
b. Providing China with a pretext for shooting down foreign objects over its claimed territory? YES
4. Which external territories are claimed by China? TAIWAN and South China Sea
5. Would shooting down foreign objects aid a Chinese invasion of these territories? YES
6. With the US so invested in the war in Ukraine, would it willing and able to stop a Chinese invasion? NO
7. Given these circumstances, will the Chinese invade these territories? YES
8. What would be the consequences of a successful Chinese invasion?
a. Loss of a truly democratic and faithful ally of the US? YES
b. Chinese domination of the world's computer chip manufacturing capability? YES
c. Loss of free shipping routes and US military influence in Eastern Asia? YES
Please comment and/or provide your own analysis. It seems that the Chinese are playing chess while the US is playing checkers.