My God.
The bowl is full. THREE of them will kill you/are terrorists.
HOW CAN YOU THINK HE IS CLAIMING THEY ALL WILL KILL YOU/ARE TERRORISTS?
Are you insane?
I don't see how I can explain this any simpler without you being here so I can actually help you count a bowl of skittles.
Here we go:
Donald Trump Jr. inadvertently encourages America to scoop up refugees by the handful
If you do the math on the analogy you can read here:
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So let's figure out what the analogy is. The libertarian (and Koch brothers-backed) think tank Cato Institute published a report last week
assessing the risk posed by refugees. That report stated that, each year, the risk to an American of being killed by a refugee in a terror attack is 1 in 3.64 billion, as Huffington Post's
Elise Foley noted on Twitter. From the report:
From 1975 through 2015, the annual chance that an American would be murdered in a terrorist attack carried out by a foreign-born terrorist was 1 in 3,609,709. Foreigners on the Visa Waiver Program (VWP) killed zero Americans in terrorist attacks, whereas those on other tourist visas killed 1 in 3.9 million a year. The chance that an American would be killed in a terrorist attack committed by a refugee was 1 in 3.64 billion a year.
In other words, for every 10.92 billion years that Americans live — one Skittle, if you will — refugees will kill an American in a terror attack in three.
An actual Skittle is about 1 centimeter squared by about a half a centimeter tall (or thereabouts). Setting aside questions of stacking the oblong Skittles in this very large bowl by assuming each will occupy two-thirds of that volume, we're talking about one-and-a-half
Olympic swimming pools of Skittles. Wrigley produces
200 million Skittles a day, so this is the entire production line for more than 54 days, transported to an oversized swimming pool and dumped in to the top. And in that pool: Three poison Skittles.
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They go on to predict the odds you will get poisoned:
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Well, it could be one, of course, if the poisoned ones are distributed evenly through the giant pool-and-a-half of Skittles. But the odds say something different. If there is one poisoned Skittle in 3.64 billion, that means I could extract quite a few handfuls before I was likely to pick out a poisoned one.
Specifically, about 68.7 million handfuls. Let's say it takes me one minute to grab a handful and eat them. I would hit a poisoned Skittle, on average, every 130 years. I would also be consuming the equivalent of a package of Skittles every minute, which is
about 330,000 calories a day.
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Specifically showing that odds of being killed in a terrorist attack by a Syrian refugee are laughably small, especially when weighed against the number of people we are rejecting who could become productive members of their new home.