Right for 27 years 1981 Hansen study finds warming trend that could raise sea levels ThinkProgress
In fact, 27 years ago Thursday, James Hansen and six other NASA atmospheric physicists, published a seminal article in
Science, “
Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.” The paper has a number of caveats, as befits a major projection before modern climate models and modern supercomputers were available, before we had decades of verifying observations, and before we knew just how fast greenhouse gas emissions would rise. But the analysis bears up unbelievably well — any one of us would be delighted if we published something a quarter century ago that was this prescient:
The global temperature rose 0.2°C between the middle 1960s and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming
should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980s. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the
creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.
The 1980s warmed, the Northwest passage opened, the drought prone-regions have emerged, and sea level rise is a top worry (even if Greenland has emerged as more troublesome than West Antarctica). I believe the threat of drought and sea level rise remain the to gravest threats that climate change poses.
When Dr. James Hansen made those predictions in 1981, obese junkies on the radio were claiming that there was no warming at all. And continued to make that claim for another 20 years. Then it became evident to everyone that there was, indeed, a warming going on. So then, the tune changed to 'It's all natural'. The deniers have failed for the last thirty years to contribute anything at all credible to understanding the climate. All they have done is stand in left field doing the 'neener, neener' routine.
In the meantime, the real scientists have continued to increase our understanding of the climate. And the deniars have continued to flaunt their incredible ignorance and ability to pull lies out of their asses.