Stephanie
Diamond Member
- Jul 11, 2004
- 70,230
- 10,865
- 2,040
Highest approval rating so far this year
:shocked1: NOT looking good for that Dem.. Takeover in Nov...
by Joseph Carroll
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds George W. Bush's job approval rating is now at 44%, which is an improvement compared with the public's assessment of his performance in recent months. Bush's job approval ratings have been fluid in recent weeks, measuring as high as 42% in mid-August, but dropping back to 39% earlier this month. The current 44% approval rating is his highest rating so far this year. The last time Bush's approval rating was at this level (or higher) was in late September 2005, when 45% of Americans approved of Bush. In recent months, Bush's approval ratings have hovered around 40%, fluctuating between 36% and 42% from June through early September.
As noted, presidential job approval ratings are subject to short-term variations for a variety of reasons. The table displays two additional ways of looking at presidential job approval -- a simple rolling average of the last three polls and a smoothed estimate based on a statistical model that uses the Samplemiser program developed by Yale University professors Donald Green and Alan Gerber. The Samplemiser approach uses the available data from the most recent series of poll results -- rather than just the latest in isolation -- to estimate the population value on job approval. It gives greater weight to more recent polls than earlier polls in its estimates.
In essence, both the Samplemiser and three-poll rolling average procedures adopt a "wait and see" approach, discounting the influence of the most recent poll taken by itself, and instead emphasizing longer-term trends using larger numbers of interviews.
Three Approaches to Presidential Job Approval
Single Poll
Approval Ratings
Three-Poll Rolling
Average Approval
Ratings
Smoothed Approval
Estimate
(Based on Samplemiser
program)
%
%
%
2006 Sep 15-17
44
42
42
2006 Sep 7-10
39
39
39
2006 Aug 18-20
42
40
40
2006 Aug 7-10
37
38
38
2006 Jul 28-30
40
39
39
2006 Jul 21-23
37
38
38
2006 Jul 6-9
40
38
39
2006 Jun 23-25
37
37
37
2006 Jun 9-11
38
36
37
2006 Jun 1-4
36
33
35
2006 May 8-11
33
33
33
2006 May 5-7
31
34
33
2006 Apr 28-30
34
36
35
2006 Apr 10-13
36
37
37
2006 Apr 7-9
37
37
37
2006 Mar 13-16
37
37
37
2006 Mar 10-12
36
38
37
2006 Feb 28-Mar 1
38
40
39
2006 Feb 9-12
39
41
41
2006 Feb 6-9
42
43
42
2006 Jan 20-22
43
43
43
2006 Jan 9-12
43
43
43
2006 Jan 6-8
43
42
43
Both of these procedures confirm the basic data -- Bush's current estimated approval rating is up whether one looks just at just the latest poll, or at an averaged or smoothed trend.
Partisan views of the president also continue to be highly polarized, even though the current poll finds a slight improvement (though not statistically significant in all cases) in Bush's approval rating among all three partisan groups.
Eighty-six percent of Republicans approve of Bush, compared with 34% of independents and 15% of Democrats. Bush's current approval ratings among Republicans and Democrats are higher now than at any point since June. Since the beginning of June, Bush has averaged 81% approval among Republicans and 10% approval among Democrats.
Independents' ratings of Bush have fluctuated the most over this period, but have averaged 31% since June.
The improvement in Bush's ratings appears to result from a more positive evaluation of him from all party groups, rather than a short-term shift in more basic party loyalties. In the current poll, 34% of Americans identified as Democrats and 31% as Republicans. In the prior September poll, when Bush had a 39% approval rating, 35% identified as Democrats and 30% as Republicans.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 15-17, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=24601
:shocked1: NOT looking good for that Dem.. Takeover in Nov...
by Joseph Carroll
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds George W. Bush's job approval rating is now at 44%, which is an improvement compared with the public's assessment of his performance in recent months. Bush's job approval ratings have been fluid in recent weeks, measuring as high as 42% in mid-August, but dropping back to 39% earlier this month. The current 44% approval rating is his highest rating so far this year. The last time Bush's approval rating was at this level (or higher) was in late September 2005, when 45% of Americans approved of Bush. In recent months, Bush's approval ratings have hovered around 40%, fluctuating between 36% and 42% from June through early September.
As noted, presidential job approval ratings are subject to short-term variations for a variety of reasons. The table displays two additional ways of looking at presidential job approval -- a simple rolling average of the last three polls and a smoothed estimate based on a statistical model that uses the Samplemiser program developed by Yale University professors Donald Green and Alan Gerber. The Samplemiser approach uses the available data from the most recent series of poll results -- rather than just the latest in isolation -- to estimate the population value on job approval. It gives greater weight to more recent polls than earlier polls in its estimates.
In essence, both the Samplemiser and three-poll rolling average procedures adopt a "wait and see" approach, discounting the influence of the most recent poll taken by itself, and instead emphasizing longer-term trends using larger numbers of interviews.
Three Approaches to Presidential Job Approval
Single Poll
Approval Ratings
Three-Poll Rolling
Average Approval
Ratings
Smoothed Approval
Estimate
(Based on Samplemiser
program)
%
%
%
2006 Sep 15-17
44
42
42
2006 Sep 7-10
39
39
39
2006 Aug 18-20
42
40
40
2006 Aug 7-10
37
38
38
2006 Jul 28-30
40
39
39
2006 Jul 21-23
37
38
38
2006 Jul 6-9
40
38
39
2006 Jun 23-25
37
37
37
2006 Jun 9-11
38
36
37
2006 Jun 1-4
36
33
35
2006 May 8-11
33
33
33
2006 May 5-7
31
34
33
2006 Apr 28-30
34
36
35
2006 Apr 10-13
36
37
37
2006 Apr 7-9
37
37
37
2006 Mar 13-16
37
37
37
2006 Mar 10-12
36
38
37
2006 Feb 28-Mar 1
38
40
39
2006 Feb 9-12
39
41
41
2006 Feb 6-9
42
43
42
2006 Jan 20-22
43
43
43
2006 Jan 9-12
43
43
43
2006 Jan 6-8
43
42
43
Both of these procedures confirm the basic data -- Bush's current estimated approval rating is up whether one looks just at just the latest poll, or at an averaged or smoothed trend.
Partisan views of the president also continue to be highly polarized, even though the current poll finds a slight improvement (though not statistically significant in all cases) in Bush's approval rating among all three partisan groups.
Eighty-six percent of Republicans approve of Bush, compared with 34% of independents and 15% of Democrats. Bush's current approval ratings among Republicans and Democrats are higher now than at any point since June. Since the beginning of June, Bush has averaged 81% approval among Republicans and 10% approval among Democrats.
Independents' ratings of Bush have fluctuated the most over this period, but have averaged 31% since June.
The improvement in Bush's ratings appears to result from a more positive evaluation of him from all party groups, rather than a short-term shift in more basic party loyalties. In the current poll, 34% of Americans identified as Democrats and 31% as Republicans. In the prior September poll, when Bush had a 39% approval rating, 35% identified as Democrats and 30% as Republicans.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 15-17, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=24601
