Breaking - Trump Takes Lead In ABC/Washington Post Poll 46% to 45%

cereal_killer

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As usual the poll is total BS. He "surges" 13 points in 8 days? Yeah right. He was always ahead and he's up by 5-6 points if this poll were accurate.

I don't buy into these polls even when he's ahead. Electorate is not and will not be Dem +10 this year and until every poll stops using that sample I will continue to pay no attention to them.
 

GHook93

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This is "YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

And this was the same poll that had hillary up 50-38 last weekend!!!!!!!!

It means nothing if he can't move the needle in key battle ground states
 

Tipsycatlover

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The people who voted early now want a do over and several states are letting them.
 

paulitician

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Polls are meaningless. The Popular Vote doesn't decide who our President will be. Keep in mind, many polls showed Romney neck & neck with, or even leading Obama last time around. Yet Obama blew him out in the Electoral College. It wasn't a close Election.

So, take polls with a grain of salt. Right now, Clinton is expected to win enough Electoral Votes pretty easily. I mean hey, i hope & pray i'm wrong. I don't wanna see the Clinton Crime Family back in the White House. But it's all about the Electoral Votes. And she appears to have that locked up.
 

Preacher

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As usual the poll is total BS. He "surges" 13 points in 8 days? Yeah right. He was always ahead and he's up by 5-6 points if this poll were accurate.

I don't buy into these polls even when he's ahead. Electorate is not and will not be Dem +10 this year and until every poll stops using that sample I will continue to pay no attention to them.
Exactly what I was thinking. Its more like 55% to 45% with Trump in lead.
 

antontoo

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Nobody is disputing that Trump is the king of the enthusiastic votes - his problem is that much of that enthusiasm is in the votes against him.
 
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Subversives, the suicide hot line is 1 800 suckitup!

For the first time since May, the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll Tuesday placed Republican Donald Trump a slim point ahead of Democratic Hillary Clinton (46:45 pc) a week before the vote for president. The enthusiasm of Clinton supporters has waned since the FBI renewed its email investigation against her, the WP reported. The Los Angeles Times poll gave Trump a more substantial lead of 46.9 percent to Clinton’s 43.3.

(Excerpt) Read more at debka.com ...
 

JimBowie1958

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It means nothing if he can't move the needle in key battle ground states
Why do you think that Trump might rise in the publics preference across the whole country but NOT in the so-called "bell weather states"?

That is why they are fucking "Bell weathers" isnt it?

Trump will win Florida, N Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Georgia and every other state that Romney won. He will add to it Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa.

Why? Because his over all message is a winning combo to people all across the country. How does that mean nothing?

There is solid evidence that about 5% of Trump supporters wont express their support audibly, but will with a secret ballot. There is evidence that about 10% of Trump supporters are so mad at the media for being in the tank for Hillary that they refuse to do polls. Thee is plain evidence of over sampling, where the Democrats have a 6% advantage on Republicans in the population, but polling companies over sample them as high as 10%, which is a 4% over sample. There is also evidence that independents and undecideds are breaking in Trumps favor int he last week by as much as 20% and this trend is gaining even more traction after the FBI reopened its investigation of Hillary. That comes to a total of 39%+ which is just over the 34% that say that the FBI reopening their investigation has pushed them toward Trump.

But lets ignore all of that and only give Trump an assumed adjustment to the RCP average polls (which are skewed by pro-Clinton out-liar polls that are not valid) and lets just look at what we have if there is as little as a 6% hidden vote for Trump that comes out on election day.

Here is what that electoral map looks like.

upload_2016-11-1_10-29-52.png


That is like 320 electoral vote win for Trump, but the skewing is more likely closer to 12% and so the actual results I think will be more like this map which gives Trump everything that Hillary has less than a 10% lead in.

upload_2016-11-1_10-35-33.png


Note that even though the pollsters under sampled Republicans by large margins in 2012, they actually under estimated Evangelical apathey and did not anticipate so many of them staying home on election day. So the pollsters actually OVER estimated Romneys vote total by failing to notice the huge apathy factor they had for Romney. They got the results off by about 4%.

Trump does not have an apathy problem, he has an ideological fanatic problem. ideologues so fanatic that they would rather let their opponent appoint several SCOTUS nominees and run the country for four more years tearing up everything that they supposedly hold dear to in order to run out a guy who agrfees with themon 90% of the issues.

Not only is this election winnable for Trump, but the internal polling by both parties seems to suggest that they know Trump is winning big as suggested by the cheer and optimism among Trumps team and the angry vindictiveness displayed by Hillary and her Corporate Crony Network
 

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NYcarbineer

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Polls are meaningless. The Popular Vote doesn't decide who our President will be. Keep in mind, many polls showed Romney neck & neck with, or even leading Obama last time around. Yet Obama blew him out in the Electoral College. It wasn't a close Election.

So, take polls with a grain of salt. Right now, Clinton is expected to win enough Electoral Votes pretty easily. I mean hey, i hope & pray i'm wrong. I don't wanna see the Clinton Crime Family back in the White House. But it's all about the Electoral Votes. And she appears to have that locked up.
If the polls were meaningless, they wouldn't have called every election in the last 30 years.
 

antontoo

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It means nothing if he can't move the needle in key battle ground states
Why do you think that Trump might rise in the publics preference across the whole country but NOT in the so-called "bell weather states"?

That is why they are fucking "Bell weathers" isnt it?

Trump will win Florida, N Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Georgia and every other state that Romney won. He will add to it Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa.

Why? Because his over all message is a winning combo to people all across the country. How does that mean nothing?

There is solid evidence that about 5% of Trump supporters wont express their support audibly, but will with a secret ballot. There is evidence that about 10% of Trump supporters are so mad at the media for being in the tank for Hillary that they refuse to do polls. Thee is plain evidence of over sampling, where the Democrats have a 6% advantage on Republicans in the population, but polling companies over sample them as high as 10%, which is a 4% over sample. There is also evidence that independents and undecideds are breaking in Trumps favor by as much as 20%. That comes to a total of 39% which is just over the 34% that say that the FBI reopening their investigation has pushed them toward Trump.

But lets ignore all of that and only give Trump an assumed adjustment to the RCP average polls (which are skewed by pro-Clinton out-liar polls that are not valid) and lets just look at what we have if there is as little as a 6% hidden vote for Trump that comes out on election day.

Here is what that electoral map looks like.

View attachment 96217

That is like 320 electoral vote win for Trump, but the skewing is more likely closer to 12% and so the actual results I think will be more like this map which gives Trump everything that Hillary has less than a 10% lead in.

View attachment 96219
Your fantasy maps, based on hidden fantasy voters are awesome!
 

antontoo

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Polls are meaningless. The Popular Vote doesn't decide who our President will be. Keep in mind, many polls showed Romney neck & neck with, or even leading Obama last time around. Yet Obama blew him out in the Electoral College. It wasn't a close Election.

So, take polls with a grain of salt. Right now, Clinton is expected to win enough Electoral Votes pretty easily. I mean hey, i hope & pray i'm wrong. I don't wanna see the Clinton Crime Family back in the White House. But it's all about the Electoral Votes. And she appears to have that locked up.
If the polls were meaningless, they wouldn't have called every election in the last 30 years.
Coincidence...and this time it is totally different. Trump is special.

 

JakeStarkey

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Swing states remain an unbreachable firewall for Clinton.

Check RCP and 538 if you have doubts, vigi.
 

JimBowie1958

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If the polls were meaningless, they wouldn't have called every election in the last 30 years.
You are so full of shit, it must be leaking out of your ears.

Late Upsets Are Rare, but Have Happened

There have been only 2 instances in the past 14 elections, from 1952 to 2004, when the presidential candidate ahead in Gallup polling a week or so before the election did not win the national popular vote: in 2000 (George W. Bush) and 1980 (Jimmy Carter). And in only one of these, in 1980, did the candidate who was behind (Ronald Reagan) pull ahead in both the popular vote and the Electoral College and thus win the election.


Gallup Poll: Jimmy Carter 47 -- Ronald Reagan 39

Past polls have also shown Democrats leading their Republican opponents up to the election. One of the most dramatic was a Gallup Poll result 2 weeks before the 1980 General Election that showed Jimmy Carter to be far ahead of Ronald Reagan. Rush Limbaugh stated,

In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.

The New York Times verified this poll,

Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.

As did Wikipedia,

Arguably the most important event of the entire 1980 presidential campaign was the second presidential debate, which was held one week to the day before the election (October 28).[24] On October 26, two days prior to the debate, Gallup released a survey that suggested that Carter was leading Reagan by a margin of 47% to 39%.

A Gallup Poll of July 26, 1988, showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. The New York Times reported,

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
 

paulitician

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Polls are meaningless. The Popular Vote doesn't decide who our President will be. Keep in mind, many polls showed Romney neck & neck with, or even leading Obama last time around. Yet Obama blew him out in the Electoral College. It wasn't a close Election.

So, take polls with a grain of salt. Right now, Clinton is expected to win enough Electoral Votes pretty easily. I mean hey, i hope & pray i'm wrong. I don't wanna see the Clinton Crime Family back in the White House. But it's all about the Electoral Votes. And she appears to have that locked up.
If the polls were meaningless, they wouldn't have called every election in the last 30 years.
Some polls had Romney leading Obama going into Election Day. Yet Obama easily won the Electoral Votes needed. But hey like i said, i hope & pray i'm wrong. I definitely don't wanna see the Clinton Crime Family back in the White House. I truly hope the American People choose not to reward such evil corruption with the US Presidency. But i'm not optimistic.
 

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