"Frightening Lukashenko with sanctions is doomed to failure," declared one Russian newspaper this morning. "It only eggs him on."
Then the character analysis: "He's cultivated the image of a thuggish hooligan."
It begs the question - can sanctions change a "hooligan's" behaviour? Previous attempts have failed. European leaders clearly felt that after the fake bomb scare, the diversion of Ryanair Flight 4978 to Minsk and the arrest of a political opponent on board, they needed to send a strong message that such a brazen act was unacceptable. Hence the new sanctions. It's unclear, though, how effective they will be.
Banning Belarusian airlines from flying over EU territory and calling on EU-based carriers to avoid Belarusian airspace is a financial blow to Minsk.
But Mr Lukashenko will almost certainly use this as an excuse to say to those around him - and to the Belarusian people - "Look, I told you so. The West is out to destroy Belarus, if not with bullets, then with sanctions." He will use it to batten down the hatches even more tightly in the face of an alleged external enemy.
Might there come a point when those around the leader pause to consider where Belarus is heading - its isolation, the economic consequences of Mr Lukashenko's policies, not to mention the brutality of the crackdown on his opponents?
As long as Moscow is backing him, Mr Lukashenko will feel confident of riding things out.
EU leaders promise more sanctions after a dissident journalist was arrested on a diverted flight.
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