- Moderator
- #1
The special election was a given as there were a bazillion candidates running in that one, but Perdue initially seemed like he was going to win outright. In the past 24 hours, as more mail in votes have been counted, he has slightly dipped under the 50% threshold to trigger a run off. Unless that changes both seats will be decided in a January election. While these both will be knock down drag out fights for sure with millions poured into them, I think both of these races will favor the Republican candidates.
First, despite Trump appearing to now be losing the state, Georgia is still Republican leaning and as we've seen from the results in other parts of the country, the animosity from voters has been more towards Trump as opposed to the Republican Party as a whole. Raphael Warnock has also made some pretty charged statements, such as referring to the police as "thugs, bullies, and gangsters," which may come back to bite him in the ass. Although he gained a plurality of votes, with 33%, the next two candidates, Loeffler (the incumbent) and Collins combined put up 46%. After that it was a smattering of single digit and less vote tallies from about a dozen or so other minor candidates.
Second, Trump voters will be angry. We've spent the last three days listening to conspiracy theory after conspiracy theory of a stolen election. They are not going to let themselves lose the Senate next, which by default would happen if both of these seats are won the by Democrat. That would make it a 50/50 split with Kamala Harris as the tie breakers, thus putting Schumer in charge. You can absolutely guarantee every Trump voter will be voting in those two special elections, which brings me to my third point.
The Republican base will have the motivation to get out and vote in this. The Democrats' number one goal was to get rid of Trump and they have succeeded. While they will certainly campaign on control of the Senate to give the Democrats the trifecta they would need to control the agenda, I'm not sure that's going to be as motivating to their base as deposing Trump was, particularly when you consider the Democrats came up way short down the ballot. They failed to decisively capture the Senate majority. They actually lost several seats in the House, which not even the most accurate pollster predicted would happen. They dumped tens of millions into state legislative races to try and win majorities and control redistricting and it failed. A lot of people voted against Trump, but voted Republican down ballot who didn't necessarily agree with the Democrats' agenda.
This will ultimately be a ground game of who can turn out their base the most and I think the GOP will do a better job of it.
First, despite Trump appearing to now be losing the state, Georgia is still Republican leaning and as we've seen from the results in other parts of the country, the animosity from voters has been more towards Trump as opposed to the Republican Party as a whole. Raphael Warnock has also made some pretty charged statements, such as referring to the police as "thugs, bullies, and gangsters," which may come back to bite him in the ass. Although he gained a plurality of votes, with 33%, the next two candidates, Loeffler (the incumbent) and Collins combined put up 46%. After that it was a smattering of single digit and less vote tallies from about a dozen or so other minor candidates.
Second, Trump voters will be angry. We've spent the last three days listening to conspiracy theory after conspiracy theory of a stolen election. They are not going to let themselves lose the Senate next, which by default would happen if both of these seats are won the by Democrat. That would make it a 50/50 split with Kamala Harris as the tie breakers, thus putting Schumer in charge. You can absolutely guarantee every Trump voter will be voting in those two special elections, which brings me to my third point.
The Republican base will have the motivation to get out and vote in this. The Democrats' number one goal was to get rid of Trump and they have succeeded. While they will certainly campaign on control of the Senate to give the Democrats the trifecta they would need to control the agenda, I'm not sure that's going to be as motivating to their base as deposing Trump was, particularly when you consider the Democrats came up way short down the ballot. They failed to decisively capture the Senate majority. They actually lost several seats in the House, which not even the most accurate pollster predicted would happen. They dumped tens of millions into state legislative races to try and win majorities and control redistricting and it failed. A lot of people voted against Trump, but voted Republican down ballot who didn't necessarily agree with the Democrats' agenda.
This will ultimately be a ground game of who can turn out their base the most and I think the GOP will do a better job of it.
Senate GOP declares "Senate is last line of defense" after Biden-Harris projected win
The two Senate races in Georgia are both likely going to runoff elections on January 5.
www.cbsnews.com