As of mid-2025, reports indicate Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium to create multiple nuclear bombs, with analysts warning a "breakout" to 90% weapons-grade material could take just weeks. Despite this capability, US intelligence has not formally concluded that Iran has an active program to build a deliverable nuclear weapon.
That’s from the IAEA, dummy.
US Intelligence Assessment on Iran, 2025
NOTHING ABOUT 2 WEEKS AWAY
“Strategic Overview
Tehran will try to leverage its robust missile capability and expanded nuclear program, and its diplomatic outreach to regional states and U.S. rivals to bolster its regional influence and ensure regime survival. However, regional and domestic challenges, most immediately tensions with Israel, are seriously testing Iran’s ambitions and capabilities.
A degraded Hizballah, the demise of the Asad regime in Syria, and Iran’s own failure to deter Israel have led leaders in Tehran to raise fundamental questions regarding Iran’s approach. Iran’s consistently underperforming economy and societal grievances will also continue to test the regime domestically.
Tehran will continue its efforts to counter Israel and press the United States to leave the region by aiding and arming its loose consortium of like-minded terrorist and militant actors, known as the “Axis of Resistance.”
Although the demise of the Asad regime, a key ally of Tehran, is a blow to the Axis, these actors still represent a wide range of threats. These threats include some continued Israeli vulnerability to HAMAS and
Hizballah; militia attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria; and the threat of Huthi missile and UAV attacks targeting Israel and maritime traffic transiting near Yemen. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to desire to avoid embroiling Iran in an expanded, direct conflict with the United States and its allies.
Iranian investment in its military has been a key plank of its efforts to confront diverse threats and try to deter and defend against an attack by the United States or Israel. Iran continues to bolster the lethality and precision of its domestically produced missile and UAV systems, and it has the largest stockpiles of these systems in the region. It considers them as critical to its deterrence strategy and power projection capability, and Iran uses their sales to deepen global military partnerships. Iran’s growing expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations also make it a major threat to the security of U.S. and allied and partner networks and data.
[ 22 ]Iran also will continue to directly threaten U.S. persons globally and remains committed to its decade-long effort to develop surrogate networks inside the United States. Iran seeks to target former and current U.S. officials it believes were involved in the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 and previously has tried to conduct lethal operations in the United States.
Tehran intends for its expanding relationships with other key U.S. adversaries and the Global South to mitigate U.S. efforts to isolate the regime and blunt the impact of Western sanctions. Tehran’s diplomatic efforts—including at times outreach to Europe—are likely to continue with varying degrees of success. In the past year, Iran has focused extensively on deepening ties with Russia—including through military cooperation for its war in Ukraine—and has relied on China as a key political and economic partner to help it mitigate economic and diplomatic pressure. Iran is also making progress developing closer diplomatic and defense ties to African states and other actors in the Global South and is trying to build on nascent improvements in its ties with other regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia, despite continued mutual suspicion over each other’s ultimate visions for the region.”
