From the OP.
The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 22.8%, down from 22.9% on Sept. 24According to the Sept. 25 run of the model, Trump had a 11.1% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 88.9%The national polling average for Trump reached 43.1% on Sept. 25, unchanged from Sept. 24Biden’s national polling average reached 50.3% on Sept. 25 compared with 50.2% on Sept. 24These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 25:StateElectoral Votes2016 WinnerTrump Poll AvgBiden Poll AvgTrump Win ChanceBiden Win Chance
| | | | | | |
| Alabama | 9 | Trump | 55.0% | 39.9% | 97.2% | 2.8% |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump | 49.6% | 45.0% | 80.5% | 19.6% |
| Arizona | 11 | Trump | 44.6% | 48.6% | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump | 47.0% | 45.0% | 94.3% | 5.7% |
| California | 55 | Clinton | 30.7% | 61.9% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Colorado | 9 | Clinton | 40.6% | 51.0% | 12.4% | 87.6% |
| Connecticut | 7 | Clinton | 34.4% | 53.9% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
| Delaware | 3 | Clinton | 38.4% | 57.3% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Clinton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Florida | 29 | Trump | 46.3% | 48.1% | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Georgia | 16 | Trump | 46.9% | 46.0% | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| Hawaii | 4 | Clinton | 30.3% | 56.8% | 1.1% | 98.9% |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump | 59.3% | 34.7% | 99.6% | 0.4% |
| Illinois | 20 | Clinton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump | 53.0% | 38.6% | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Iowa | 6 | Trump | 46.2% | 45.6% | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump | 50.6% | 41.3% | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump | 56.5% | 38.1% | 98.5% | 1.6% |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | 50.8% | 40.5% | 90.4% | 9.6% |
| Maine | 4 | Clinton | 39.0% | 54.3% | 11.7% | 88.3% |
| Maryland | 10 | Clinton | 33.1% | 60.5% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Clinton | 29.4% | 63.6% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Michigan | 16 | Trump | 42.7% | 49.8% | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| Minnesota | 10 | Clinton | 42.1% | 51.2% | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | 52.5% | 40.6% | 86.7% | 13.3% |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump | 50.1% | 43.9% | 90.6% | 9.4% |
| Montana | 3 | Trump | 50.6% | 42.8% | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| Nebraska | 5 | Trump | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98.9% | 1.1% |
| Nevada | 6 | Clinton | 41.4% | 47.7% | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Clinton | 43.0% | 49.3% | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| New Jersey | 14 | Clinton | 36.5% | 55.0% | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| New Mexico | 5 | Clinton | 41.3% | 53.8% | 5.2% | 94.8% |
| New York | 29 | Clinton | 33.2% | 59.8% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| North Carolina | 15 | Trump | 46.3% | 47.5% | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump | 55.9% | 38.0% | 99.1% | 0.9% |
| Ohio | 18 | Trump | 46.9% | 47.9% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump | 58.2% | 34.3% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Oregon | 7 | Clinton | 39.0% | 51.0% | 7.4% | 92.6% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Trump | 44.8% | 49.7% | 24.4% | 75.6% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Clinton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump | 50.4% | 43.9% | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump | 0.0% | 0.0% | 97.2% | 2.8% |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump | 53.6% | 40.0% | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Texas | 38 | Trump | 47.6% | 46.0% | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| Utah | 6 | Trump | 49.7% | 36.4% | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| Vermont | 3 | Clinton | 32.5% | 55.7% | 1.4% | 98.6% |
| Virginia | 13 | Clinton | 40.7% | 50.9% | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| Washington | 12 | Clinton | 34.7% | 58.6% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
| West Virginia | 5 | Trump | 64.6% | 32.4% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Trump | 43.7% | 50.3% | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.8% | 0.2% |
Major polls added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours pollsterSponsorsState or FederalStart DateEnd DatePopulationSample SizeTrump %Biden %