Biden Lied About Everything: Philly Fed Finds All Jobs "Created" In Q2 Were Fake

excalibur

Diamond Member
Mar 19, 2015
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The lyingist liar, the lyingst administration ever.

Liars all.

Aided and abetted by the liars in the MSM.



Back in August, many were surprised by the accuracy of our forecast, when we predicted that in its annual revision, the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics would revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by "up to 1 million", something which we said would mean that all job report "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US labor market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.

The final results, as everyone knows by now, was a shocking 818K revision lower, just as the Philadelphia Fed had predicted 6 months prior, in March, when it calculated correctly that the Biden Department of Goalseeking Propaganda had overstated payrolls by "at least 800,000."
We mention all of this up because on Friday, the Philly Fed served up its latest shocker: not only did the Biden admin lie again, but the collapse in the labor market that had been covered up for much of the past year and was only exposed with the annual benchmark revision, extended into the second quarter.

"Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2024 were significantly different" - read lower - "in 27 states compared with preliminary state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES)", the Philly Fed said on December 12.

"According to the early benchmark (EB) estimates conducted by the Phily Fed, employment was lower in 25 states, higher in two states, and lesser changes in the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia."

Translation: 23 states unchanged, 1 revised higher... and 25 lower. The breakdown is shown below.



...

By state, the regional Fed bank estimates that largest revision of employment for the nine-month period ended in June will come from California, where it sees a downward revision of 172,700 jobs. Payrolls in Texas may be revised down by 112,100. An extended forecast by the BLS to the third quarter show further declines as well.

And while we don't yet know the specifics of the revisions - those will be revealed on Feb 7, 2025 when the final numbers are published - at the national level, we do know that all the jobs reportedly "created" in the second quarter, were actually fake, there were no net jobs created at all, and in fact, the US lost jobs in Q2!




Translation: in his latest attempt to create an impression of economic growth, Biden lied about everything, again.



 
The lyingist liar, the lyingst administration ever.

Liars all.

Aided and abetted by the liars in the MSM.


Back in August, many were surprised by the accuracy of our forecast, when we predicted that in its annual revision, the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics would revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by "up to 1 million", something which we said would mean that all job report "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US labor market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.​
The final results, as everyone knows by now, was a shocking 818K revision lower, just as the Philadelphia Fed had predicted 6 months prior, in March, when it calculated correctly that the Biden Department of Goalseeking Propaganda had overstated payrolls by "at least 800,000."
We mention all of this up because on Friday, the Philly Fed served up its latest shocker: not only did the Biden admin lie again, but the collapse in the labor market that had been covered up for much of the past year and was only exposed with the annual benchmark revision, extended into the second quarter.​
"Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2024 were significantly different" - read lower - "in 27 states compared with preliminary state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES)", the Philly Fed said on December 12.​
"According to the early benchmark (EB) estimates conducted by the Phily Fed, employment was lower in 25 states, higher in two states, and lesser changes in the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia."
Translation: 23 states unchanged, 1 revised higher... and 25 lower. The breakdown is shown below.​
...​
By state, the regional Fed bank estimates that largest revision of employment for the nine-month period ended in June will come from California, where it sees a downward revision of 172,700 jobs. Payrolls in Texas may be revised down by 112,100. An extended forecast by the BLS to the third quarter show further declines as well.​
And while we don't yet know the specifics of the revisions - those will be revealed on Feb 7, 2025 when the final numbers are published - at the national level, we do know that all the jobs reportedly "created" in the second quarter, were actually fake, there were no net jobs created at all, and in fact, the US lost jobs in Q2!
Translation: in his latest attempt to create an impression of economic growth, Biden lied about everything, again.


Once a Pinocchio ALWAYS a Pinocchio! Hey ya Gotta admit, Joseph Pinocchio Biden has a certain "ring to it!!!
 
Scruffy wins again.

I called those lying bastards out on their bullshit two days after the lies were issued.

The Biden administration is the biggest bunch of lying scumbags ever to disgrace the White House.

May they all fit in hell. Especially Mayorkas. He has a special place reserved for him, about waist high to the Devil.
 
In our experience, relatively small overall revisions suggest that the national estimate will not be significantly revised even if the revisions are pervasive and persistent. Relatively large overall revisions over three or more quarters suggest that the national estimate may be revised slightly in the same direction as the overall state revisions. As our article stated, “We need to track this work over more years to learn whether our early benchmarks regularly predict the direction of data revisions to the CES estimates of national data.”

For our analytical purposes, we compute the sum of our early benchmark state estimates solely as a metric to assess the first two criteria across multiple quarters and across years. We compute these estimates for cumulative quarters as data become available in order to assess the third criteria. The estimate of U.S. employment obtained from the sum of our early benchmark state estimates is not designed nor intended to be an accurate measure of national employment. Moreover, the BLS routinely warns that because of statistical limitations, it “does not compile a ‘sum-of-states’ employment series and cautions users that such a series is subject to a relatively large and volatile error structure.” This caveat also applies to our early benchmark series.
 

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