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Battleground state predictions based off of early voting numbers

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sakinago

sakinago

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From TargetSmart. A democratic polling outfit. Keep in mind Democrat’s historically do very well in early voting. That should be especially true this year since trump encouraged his voters to vote in person, while Biden and the left pushed heavily for mail in voting. This has been the dem strategy of 2020, bank enough early votes to sandbag against trump voters on day of election. You’ll notice a trend. With the covid hysteria coming from the left, and their constant push for their voters to vote by mail...Expect dem day of election voters (DOE) to be just the same, if not, most likely lower than it was in 2016. Basically Democrats are halfway through their race in early voting, while Trump voters are still stretching at the starting line.

Arizona. GOP+6. 92% of the 2016 electorate. Consider this Trump

Colorado. Dem +5. 90% of electorate. Toss up-lean Biden

Florida. GOP +0.8... in 2016 dems won early voting by 5.4. 86% of 2016 electorate.
Trump

Georgia: GOP +6.9. 93% of 2016 electorate. Was GOP +7 in 2016. Heavy hill to climb for dems. Probably Trump

Iowa. Dem +4.3, up 1 from 2016. Here’s the kicker, the turnout is 320,000 more than 2016. 58% of the Iowa 2016 electorate. Trump won Iowa by 9.5 pts in 2016. Trump

Michigan. Dems wining early vote +1.4% from where they were in 2016. Early voting turnout, 1.7 million up from 2016. 60% of electorate. Trump won by .3 pts. Toss up lean trump.

Minnesota. Dem +0.4 from 2016. 1.1 million more voted vs 2016. Hillary only won Minnesota by 1.1 pts. Toss up, lean trump

North Carolina. In 2016 dems lead early voting by 10pts. Trump won by 3.6pts. Now +1 dem, 96% of the electorate from 2016. Trump.

Nevada. +.1 dems, 98% of 2016 electorate. Trump.

Ohio. Trump already won. Dems won EV 2016 by 7.8. Trump won Ohio by 8pts. Dems Loosing by 6 pts this time in EV. Ohio might as well be deep red now. 57% of the 2016 electorate. Trump

Texas. My home state. Oh how I love you still, especially after this data. 2016 was R+9.6. 2020 R +10.1pts with 4 million more early voters than in 2016. 106% of 2016 electorate. So much for #turntexasblue. Texas is redder than the devils dick.

Virginia. Supposed to be solid blue. 2016 EV won by dems 14.4 pts, Hillary won by 5. Dems down to only 8.8 pts EV. 66% of 2016 electorate. Still lean Biden. But fits the trend everywhere else.

Wisconsin. 2016 dems won EV by 9.2pts. 2020 dems only up 1.2 pts in EV. An extra 1.1 million votes from 2016. 61% of electorate

My current state Pennsylvania (see my other thread on my thoughts off of judging the lines at polling stations). GOP in 2016 actually won early voting in PA by 8pts. Targetsmart has Democrat’s up in EV by 3pts. 2.2 million more people voting than 4 years ago, ten times more early voter in 2016. Here’s the kicker, ONLY 40% of the electorate in PA. These numbers simply make no earthly sense. Up 1000% of the EV in 2016 when trump won the early vote. Either every registered dem in PA used early voting. Or there’s some funny business going on in PA. Still a fuck ton of DOE votes to be cast. It’s going to be tight based off of these numbers. Tight. Toss-up (I only lean trump based off of what I saw at the polls compared to 20, wish I lived in the same area back in 2016 to better compare).


What’s becoming clear is that PA is no longer as vital to trump as previously thought. There’s a clear path to victory for trump without PA. If he does take PA, this election will be a blowout. Granted the data could mean that the GOP is cannibalizing their vote more than normal. Which is certainly partially true in a pandemic. Cannibalizing the DOE vote with EV is something that happens every election for dems. But it’s not even close to what I’m hearing on the ground, GOP wise, from friends in Montgomery County PA. Even more so, hearing from friends in more rural neighboring counties, it’s HEAVY trump at the polls right now.

Keep this thread going please. If you can update accurate information that would be great. I'm considering a sizable bet online for Trump, I rely on you to cut through the b.s :)

Just facts please, so I can assess what's up and time it properly.

What is EV, Expected Value? If so, how are you calculating this?
Early voting. Sorry should’ve have stated that
 
OP
sakinago

sakinago

Gold Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
5,274
Reaction score
1,571
Points
185
From TargetSmart. A democratic polling outfit. Keep in mind Democrat’s historically do very well in early voting. That should be especially true this year since trump encouraged his voters to vote in person, while Biden and the left pushed heavily for mail in voting. This has been the dem strategy of 2020, bank enough early votes to sandbag against trump voters on day of election. You’ll notice a trend. With the covid hysteria coming from the left, and their constant push for their voters to vote by mail...Expect dem day of election voters (DOE) to be just the same, if not, most likely lower than it was in 2016. Basically Democrats are halfway through their race in early voting, while Trump voters are still stretching at the starting line.

Arizona. GOP+6. 92% of the 2016 electorate. Consider this Trump

Colorado. Dem +5. 90% of electorate. Toss up-lean Biden

Florida. GOP +0.8... in 2016 dems won early voting by 5.4. 86% of 2016 electorate.
Trump

Georgia: GOP +6.9. 93% of 2016 electorate. Was GOP +7 in 2016. Heavy hill to climb for dems. Probably Trump

Iowa. Dem +4.3, up 1 from 2016. Here’s the kicker, the turnout is 320,000 more than 2016. 58% of the Iowa 2016 electorate. Trump won Iowa by 9.5 pts in 2016. Trump

Michigan. Dems wining early vote +1.4% from where they were in 2016. Early voting turnout, 1.7 million up from 2016. 60% of electorate. Trump won by .3 pts. Toss up lean trump.

Minnesota. Dem +0.4 from 2016. 1.1 million more voted vs 2016. Hillary only won Minnesota by 1.1 pts. Toss up, lean trump

North Carolina. In 2016 dems lead early voting by 10pts. Trump won by 3.6pts. Now +1 dem, 96% of the electorate from 2016. Trump.

Nevada. +.1 dems, 98% of 2016 electorate. Trump.

Ohio. Trump already won. Dems won EV 2016 by 7.8. Trump won Ohio by 8pts. Dems Loosing by 6 pts this time in EV. Ohio might as well be deep red now. 57% of the 2016 electorate. Trump

Texas. My home state. Oh how I love you still, especially after this data. 2016 was R+9.6. 2020 R +10.1pts with 4 million more early voters than in 2016. 106% of 2016 electorate. So much for #turntexasblue. Texas is redder than the devils dick.

Virginia. Supposed to be solid blue. 2016 EV won by dems 14.4 pts, Hillary won by 5. Dems down to only 8.8 pts EV. 66% of 2016 electorate. Still lean Biden. But fits the trend everywhere else.

Wisconsin. 2016 dems won EV by 9.2pts. 2020 dems only up 1.2 pts in EV. An extra 1.1 million votes from 2016. 61% of electorate

My current state Pennsylvania (see my other thread on my thoughts off of judging the lines at polling stations). GOP in 2016 actually won early voting in PA by 8pts. Targetsmart has Democrat’s up in EV by 3pts. 2.2 million more people voting than 4 years ago, ten times more early voter in 2016. Here’s the kicker, ONLY 40% of the electorate in PA. These numbers simply make no earthly sense. Up 1000% of the EV in 2016 when trump won the early vote. Either every registered dem in PA used early voting. Or there’s some funny business going on in PA. Still a fuck ton of DOE votes to be cast. It’s going to be tight based off of these numbers. Tight. Toss-up (I only lean trump based off of what I saw at the polls compared to 20, wish I lived in the same area back in 2016 to better compare).


What’s becoming clear is that PA is no longer as vital to trump as previously thought. There’s a clear path to victory for trump without PA. If he does take PA, this election will be a blowout. Granted the data could mean that the GOP is cannibalizing their vote more than normal. Which is certainly partially true in a pandemic. Cannibalizing the DOE vote with EV is something that happens every election for dems. But it’s not even close to what I’m hearing on the ground, GOP wise, from friends in Montgomery County PA. Even more so, hearing from friends in more rural neighboring counties, it’s HEAVY trump at the polls right now.

Keep this thread going please. If you can update accurate information that would be great. I'm considering a sizable bet online for Trump, I rely on you to cut through the b.s :)

Just facts please, so I can assess what's up and time it properly.

What is EV, Expected Value? If so, how are you calculating this?
A. Place your bet now. It’s known by both right and left that GOP makes their hay on Election Day, while dems try to sandbag with early voting. The longer you wait, the worse the odds will be (as long as the odds lock in when you place the bet, idk if they do).

B. I’ll update with what I can, but not much data is going to come in till later tonight.
 

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