Are we or Are we not in a recession?

[Charles_Main]

The technical Defintion of a recession is 2 consecutive quaters of Negative growth, or shriking.

So what are the numbers? well in the last 3 quaters they are:

Ending Dec 07 - Neg .02%
Ending Mar 08 - Pos .09%
Ending June 08 - Pos 1.9%

1.9% is actually less than expected but the pattern is over the last 3 months, an upward one.

While clearly things are not wonderful, I would have to say we are by no means in a recession. Despite what Both Obama and McCain are saying.

In fact I would say that in the face of the Housing Crisis, the Energy Crisis, and the Credit crunch. 1.9% growth is actually pretty amazing.

I would also point out that in the month of June the Dollar actually gained on many other currencies for the first time in a long while.

I am by no means trying to say that we are doing honky dory, only that things are clearly not as bad as some would have you think.

If we could only get deficit spending in check, and address the Energy crisis, we could start to see some real growth of the economy, and start our way out of this shaky economy.

 

[CA95380]

I don't know bout that. As they say;

If it looks like a duck
Quacks like a duck
It's a DUCK!

​

 

[Charles_Main]

I don't know bout that. As they say;

If it looks like a duck
Quacks like a duck
It's a DUCK!

​

Could be, but then is not the 3 quaters of upward direction and a month a the dollar making gains, part of what it looks like?

 

[Paulie]

Could be, but then is not the 3 quaters of upward direction and a month a the dollar making gains, part of what it looks like?

What are you using to define our "growth" in those quarters though? GDP?

You need to adjust the GDP for our debt, and come up with our NET growth. I don't know the numbers for those quarters, but I bet you'd be hard pressed to find a whole lot of NET growth in the face of all this recent debt we've taken on.

How could there possibly be REAL growth when there are major banks collapsing, gasoline at record prices, food prices skyrocketing, and people all over the place cutting back on just about EVERYTHING?

I have to run but later on I'll crunch some numbers if I have time, and see what I come up with. Maybe you do the same, and we'll compare.

 

[CA95380]

Could be, but then is not the 3 quaters of upward direction and a month a the dollar making gains, part of what it looks like?

Charles .... I am not a big fan of "numbers" or " % " ... what I see is when I go to the grocery store, pay my utilites, etc. But .....

..... one thing is lookin up! I actually paid $4.13 a gallon for gas today!!! Wheeeeeeee!!!

 

[CA95380]

Stange! In the background my television is on a news channel! They just now said that the "things are lookin up" smoke screen is because of the Stimulus Checks! Could be, ya know

 

[stivex]

A recession is when real GDP growth is negative for two or more consecutive quarters. So, technically we are not in a recession. We are by no menas in great times, I will admit. Just don't call it a recession, because it is not.

 

[Zoomie1980]

The technical Defintion of a recession is 2 consecutive quaters of Negative growth, or shriking.

So what are the numbers? well in the last 3 quaters they are:

Ending Dec 07 - Neg .02%
Ending Mar 08 - Pos .09%
Ending June 08 - Pos 1.9%

1.9% is actually less than expected but the pattern is over the last 3 months, an upward one.

While clearly things are not wonderful, I would have to say we are by no means in a recession. Despite what Both Obama and McCain are saying.

In fact I would say that in the face of the Housing Crisis, the Energy Crisis, and the Credit crunch. 1.9% growth is actually pretty amazing.

I would also point out that in the month of June the Dollar actually gained on many other currencies for the first time in a long while.

I am by no means trying to say that we are doing honky dory, only that things are clearly not as bad as some would have you think.

If we could only get deficit spending in check, and address the Energy crisis, we could start to see some real growth of the economy, and start our way out of this shaky economy.

Well I filled up this morning for $3.52, down from $4.01 four weeks ago. That's a hell of a drop. Probably what bouyed consumer confidence a bit more than expected.

While the credit and housing crisis still have a lot of excess to get rid of yet (housing in California is STILL 15-25% to high, even higher in some areas like Silicon Valley) and lots of write downs still to come. Dollar is still very weak.

But the reach of that is not as far and deep as some maintain. And we really do not want gas to come down too far, too fast, and start giving people second thoughts about their energy behavioral changes they have made. But the reality the only ones really getting hurt are the ones out at the margins of society and no one else....

 

[gonegolfin]

The technical Defintion of a recession is 2 consecutive quaters of Negative growth, or shriking.

So what are the numbers? well in the last 3 quaters they are:

Ending Dec 07 - Neg .02%
Ending Mar 08 - Pos .09%
Ending June 08 - Pos 1.9%

1.9% is actually less than expected but the pattern is over the last 3 months, an upward one.

While clearly things are not wonderful, I would have to say we are by no means in a recession. Despite what Both Obama and McCain are saying.

In fact I would say that in the face of the Housing Crisis, the Energy Crisis, and the Credit crunch. 1.9% growth is actually pretty amazing.

I would also point out that in the month of June the Dollar actually gained on many other currencies for the first time in a long while.

I am by no means trying to say that we are doing honky dory, only that things are clearly not as bad as some would have you think.

If we could only get deficit spending in check, and address the Energy crisis, we could start to see some real growth of the economy, and start our way out of this shaky economy.

These numbers are not legitimate. GDP is the measure of real growth, which means inflation in domestic production must be removed from the measure. This is done by applying what is called a GDP deflator (a measure of inflation of domestically produced goods). Go take a look at the GDP deflator used in recent quarters and tell me if you think that is an accurate measure of the domestically produced goods inflation we are experiencing.

I should also note that the December number was once positive and just had a non-trivial adjustment to the downside (about 0.8%).

What was the GDP deflator used for Q2? 1.06%. Yeah right.

Brian

 

[busara]

well, the strength of an economy is typically judged off of the housing and auto markets. not sure about the auto, but housing is doing quite poorly. i would say this is a unique economic time, and therefore hard to label it.

i hear that the dollar is artifically low right now compared to the euro, so it is likely to rise. (this was using the bigmac index)

 

[editec]

Techically, one supposes the US economy is not in a recession.

Not that that arcane metric has doodle-squat to do with how the American economy is going for most Americans.

Most americans, obviously not all, but more than half, I strongly suspect, are scrambling to just to keep their heads above water.

So is that a recession?

I'm inclined to think it doesn't matter what you call it, it is what it is.

 

[Care4all]

STAGFLATION

Stagflation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a period of time.[1] The portmanteau "stagflation" is generally attributed to British politician Iain Macleod, who coined the term in a speech to Parliament in 1965.[2][3][4] The concept is notable partly because, in postwar macroeconomic theory, inflation and recession were regarded as being mutually exclusive and more significantly because an inflationary spiral results as contraction further boosts unit cost and adds to inflation.

Economists offer two principal explanations for why stagflation occurs. First, stagflation can result when an economy is slowed by an unfavorable supply shock, such as an increase in the price of oil in an oil importing country, which tends to raise prices at the same time that it slows the economy by making production less profitable.[5][6][7] This type of stagflation presents a policy dilemma because most actions to assist with fighting inflation worsen economic stagnation and vice versa. Second, both stagnation and inflation can result from inappropriate macroeconomic policies. For example, central banks can cause inflation by permitting excessive growth of the money supply,[8] and the government can cause stagnation by excessive regulation of goods markets and labor markets;[9] together, these factors can cause stagflation. Both types of explanations are offered in analyses of the global stagflation of the 1970s: it began with a huge rise in oil prices, but then continued as central banks used excessively stimulative monetary policy to counteract the resulting recession, causing a runaway wage-price spiral.[10

 

[sealybobo]

What are you using to define our "growth" in those quarters though? GDP?

You need to adjust the GDP for our debt, and come up with our NET growth. I don't know the numbers for those quarters, but I bet you'd be hard pressed to find a whole lot of NET growth in the face of all this recent debt we've taken on.

How could there possibly be REAL growth when there are major banks collapsing, gasoline at record prices, food prices skyrocketing, and people all over the place cutting back on just about EVERYTHING?

I have to run but later on I'll crunch some numbers if I have time, and see what I come up with. Maybe you do the same, and we'll compare.

I'll tell you what he's using. Fuzzy math. We are in a recession bordering on a depression. Banks are closing for god sakes!!!! Unemployment is really high!!!! Jesus!!!!

 

[busara]

I'll tell you what he's using. Fuzzy math. We are in a recession bordering on a depression. Banks are closing for god sakes!!!! Unemployment is really high!!!! Jesus!!!!

what are you talking about? allie has said that the economy is fine, and thats enough for me

 

[sealybobo]

what are you talking about? allie has said that the economy is fine, and thats enough for me

Like I said before, Mitt Romney came to Michigan in January when he was still running for President and repeated the exact same lie that my Republican buddies here had been saying to me for 6 years. "Michigan is in a one state recession. The rest of the country is doing fine. In fact, the economy is strong. It's all Governor Jennifer Granholms fault". So it was her fault that companies all over America are sending jobs overseas? She happens to be running the manufacturing capital of the country. Of course we are being hit hardest.

I knew middle class people were hurting all over the country. I knew it wasn't just happening in Michigan. And I knew how they were fudging the numbers.

Here in Michigan, they try to blame the Unions. Are you in a union? I'm not. I think the number of Americans in a Union is somewhere around 15%. They are not way companies are going overseas. They are going because they can pay less overseas, so they resent all of us and how much we make. If you make $50k plus insurance, they resent you too because they can get it cheaper in Mexico, China or India.

So they blamed unions so they could break them, plus 85% of us aren't in Unions, so we bought into that bullshit. And we didn't care about manufacturing jobs because we aren't in manufacturing.

Just look at the 2009 budget forecast they came out with earlier this week. You see how they left things out, like the Iraq war. That's a pretty big expense to leave out of your fucking budget, huh?

And to blame the Democrats or Obama for anything? If America picks McCain, we deserve what we get.

 

[AllieBaba]

I don't know bout that. As they say;

If it looks like a duck
Quacks like a duck
It's a DUCK!

​

In other words, ignore the fucking facts. We want a recession, dammit!

 

[AllieBaba]

what are you talking about? allie has said that the economy is fine, and thats enough for me

As well it should be!

 

[AllieBaba]

Hmm..unemployment about the same rate as in the 50s, much, MUCH lower than it was in the 80s, after Carter closed down logging and fishing......

I know my kids are better provided for than I was as a child.....and most Americans are in the same boat.

It's not quacking like a recession to me.

You all do realize the left has been saying we're in a recession since Reagan's economics re-established (and fixed) our economy, right? In other words, since the end of the last recession, you all have been screaming that we're in a recession.

Go back to school, for pete's sakes.

 

[busara]

Hmm..unemployment about the same rate as in the 50s, much, MUCH lower than it was in the 80s, after Carter closed down logging and fishing......

I know my kids are better provided for than I was as a child.....and most Americans are in the same boat.

It's not quacking like a recession to me.

You all do realize the left has been saying we're in a recession since Reagan's economics re-established (and fixed) our economy, right? In other words, since the end of the last recession, you all have been screaming that we're in a recession.

Go back to school, for pete's sakes.

i would be happy to argue the effect of reagons policy's on the economy. the economy recovered, but it was not because of what he did

 

[Care4all]

it is called STAGflation, which in a way is WORSE than a recession becasue there are no moves that can be taken to safely pull us out of it without causing major inflation....please read the wiki link provided above on it and follow the links and articles on it....