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Are the Markets telling us something?

Truthmatters

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US STOCKS-Stocks set for higher open on Fed stimulus hopes | Reuters


Wall Street stocks ended higher on Tuesday after minutes
released from the most recent Fed board meeting indicated
several policymakers backed more monetary easing. "With the markets on the cusp of seeing very important
economic data over the next three days, comments yesterday from
Fed voting members (Charles) Evans and (Narayana) Kocherlakota
have changed the dynamic in terms of what the market response
will be. The question is how long it will last," said Peter
Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co in New York.
 
Last edited:

Quantum Windbag

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US STOCKS-Stocks set for higher open on Fed stimulus hopes | Reuters


Wall Street stocks ended higher on Tuesday after minutes
released from the most recent Fed board meeting indicated
several policymakers backed more monetary easing. "With the markets on the cusp of seeing very important
economic data over the next three days, comments yesterday from
Fed voting members (Charles) Evans and (Narayana) Kocherlakota
have changed the dynamic in terms of what the market response
will be. The question is how long it will last," said Peter
Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co in New York.

Do you understand the difference between a news report that contains wild speculation about why the market did something and the fact that the market goes up and down?

If not, this is going to be a very short conversation.
 

dblack

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The markets are telling us they're turned on by the notion of the Fed turning on the spigot again. Should be a good opportunity for speculators to make a bundle on another bubble.

Go team!
 

expat_panama

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...understand the difference between a news report that contains wild speculation about why the market did something and the fact that the market goes up and down? If not, this is going to be a very short conversation.
You're probably right --about the conversation not the markets. With how markets go you're not probably right, you're absolutely right. Look at what we're working with:
The markets are telling us they're turned on by the notion of the Fed turning on the spigot again...
The stock market is telling you it is a schizophrenic with the attention span of a humming bird.
My first thought was to say how cute they are to have little imaginary friends that talk to them and that I can have an imaginary friend called "psychology" that's telling us all to be in charge of our fantasies.

Unfortunately the problem's deeper than that, and we can't just tell them that there is no 'market' that we can talk with, and that it's really millions of people that are buying and selling things to create wealth. Maybe our loonytoon colleagues here can or can't get their act together, but the bigger problem is repairing our market environment so our wealth creation activities can resume.
 

editec

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Mavens of the market will tell you to:

Buy on the rumor sell on the news.


In the world of chess essantially the same philosophy is expressed as:​

The threat is more powerful than its execution.

A lot of market analysis is little more than post game quarterbacking.​

The market moves, and then the wags selectively choose the news items that they think explains it.​

Had it gone the other way, the same wags would choose different news to explain that move.​

But honestly, think about it.​

If these wags truly KNEW what made the market move every time, wouldn't they be so busy counting their daily profits that they wouldn't have time to explain it to us?​
 

syrenn

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US STOCKS-Stocks set for higher open on Fed stimulus hopes | Reuters


Wall Street stocks ended higher on Tuesday after minutes
released from the most recent Fed board meeting indicated
several policymakers backed more monetary easing. "With the markets on the cusp of seeing very important
economic data over the next three days, comments yesterday from
Fed voting members (Charles) Evans and (Narayana) Kocherlakota
have changed the dynamic in terms of what the market response
will be. The question is how long it will last," said Peter
Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co in New York.

Do you understand the difference between a news report that contains wild speculation about why the market did something and the fact that the market goes up and down?

If not, this is going to be a very short conversation.

:eek::eek::eek:

You mean there is something called a *gasp* conversation that goes on with liesmatter?
 

dblack

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Maybe our loonytoon colleagues here can or can't get their act together, but the bigger problem is repairing our market environment so our wealth creation activities can resume.

Perhaps the problem (with the conversation) is a lack of appreciation for sarcasm.
 

Warrior102

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US STOCKS-Stocks set for higher open on Fed stimulus hopes | Reuters


Wall Street stocks ended higher on Tuesday after minutes
released from the most recent Fed board meeting indicated
several policymakers backed more monetary easing. "With the markets on the cusp of seeing very important
economic data over the next three days, comments yesterday from
Fed voting members (Charles) Evans and (Narayana) Kocherlakota
have changed the dynamic in terms of what the market response
will be. The question is how long it will last," said Peter
Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co in New York.

Dear Dipshit -

Stocks Log Worst Aug. in 10 Years; Dow Up for 2011

News Headlines
 

syrenn

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[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7ZT5sajkys]Shug Avery - God Is Trying To Tell You Something - YouTube[/ame]
 

expat_panama

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Maybe our loonytoon colleagues here can or can't get their act together, but the bigger problem is repairing our market environment so our wealth creation activities can resume.
Perhaps the problem (with the conversation) is a lack of appreciation for sarcasm.
Sorry, my bad.
sarcasmx.GIF

All better now.
 

iamwhatiseem

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I have always been interested in the different levels of disconnect between how a person sees themselves and how everyone else sees them.
Especially people like TM whose disconnect is to the point of being near polar opposite of reality. What makes this happen has always interested me.
A person who makes their login Truthmatters, but then consistently post overtly one-sided articles to support a single theme - is fascinating.

But - what is more interesting is when people post back objective articles and concrete data that clearly shows fault in the original link - she just ignores it. And will even post another thread on a different day on the same subject...again ignoring objective data.

Odd.
 

waltky

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European debt about to bring the world economy to its knees...
:eek:
Deepening fears about Europe sink stocks
September 9, 2011: Stocks ended sharply lower Friday, as bad news out of Europe kept piling up. The sell-off triggered the sixth weekly decline in seven weeks for the Dow and S&P 500.
Just before the opening bell, the European Central Bank announced that executive board member Jürgen Stark was stepping down. Analysts say Stark is leaving amid disagreements over the ECB's bond-buying program. The ECB has been buying bonds issued by troubled European governments in an attempt to stabilize volatile sovereign debt markets, but the program has been criticized for overstepping the ECB's sole mandate to maintain price stability. Selling gained momentum in the afternoon as investors also grew increasingly concerned about a possible Greek default.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 304 points, or 2.7%. At its lowest points, the blue chip index was down 359 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) slumped 32 points, or 2.7%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 71 points, or 61 points, or 2.4%. The day's steep losses pushed all three indexes to end in the red for the week. The Dow declined more than 2%, the S&P fell 1.7% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%. "There's a lot of nervousness that Greece could default this weekend, and Greek bonds yields keep rising," said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

Reports said Germany is preparing to shore up its banks to protect them against a Greek default. If Greece's bonds become worthless, that can trigger capital-requirement problems, and a lot of major banks could go under, Saluzzi said. "The financial contagion could be pretty bad, so investors are getting out now and waiting to see how all of this will shake out," he added. Earlier Friday, investors were on edge following the surprise announcement of Stark's resignation. "Stark has been a fairly vocal critic over the ECB's bond purchasing program," said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets in London. "His resignation highlights the political paralysis at the heart of Europe, and the debt crisis is approaching a tipping point."

Stark's departure along with Bank of Italy Gov. Mario Draghi taking over from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in November (Trichet is retiring) raises questions about how the region will handle its ongoing sovereign debt problems. "A big part of the European debt crisis has been the lack of coherent response from European officials," said Kathy Jones, fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. "It always seems like they're behind the curve, with too little too late, and all the changes in leadership in the middle of a crisis increases the uncertainty."

MORE

See also:

Europe's debt crisis: 5 things you need to know
September 8, 2011: German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants greater 'convergence' among all EU members.
It's been about 18 months since the sovereign debt crisis in Europe began attracting attention in global financial circles. In that time, the crisis has grown into the biggest challenge the European Union has faced since the adoption of the euro as its single currency 12 years ago. Greece, Portugal and Ireland are on life support. Italy and Spain are exhibiting worrying symptoms. Germany and France, the healthy ones, are suffering from a global economic malaise. As the situation appears to be coming to a head, again, here are five key issues to keep an eye on.

Stability fund's instability

In July, European political leaders announced a set of proposals to address the crisis, including a second bailout for Greece, which was teetering on the verge of default. The centerpiece of the July 21 agreement was the proposed expansion of the European Financial Stability Fund. The fund was set up last year to facilitate low-cost loans for struggling EU members including Portugal and Ireland. Under the proposed changes, the fund would be able to buy government bonds directly from banks and investors. Importantly, it would be able to do this for nations that do not already have bailout loans, such as Spain and Italy. The goal is to contain the crisis by limiting volatility in the sovereign debt markets, where nervous investors have driven borrowing costs for several struggling EU nations to record highs.

That would take some pressure off the European Central Bank, which has been buying government bonds as part of an emergency program. But many analysts say there is not enough money in the 440 billion euro stability fund to be effective if Italy and Spain need to be rescued. Over the next few weeks, the proposals will go before Parliaments in several eurozone nations, including some where voters are suffering from so-called bailout fatigue. The bailout and stability fund expansion would also need approval from the 17 nations that use the euro as their currency.

From Greece to Italy
 

waltky

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QE3 with a Twist...
:confused:
Stocks plunge after Fed disappoints
September 21, 2011: Investors aren't digging the Twist. Stocks plunged after the Federal Reserve made it official -- no change in rates and Operation Twist is a go.
Stocks ended near the lowest levels of the day after the Fed said it will shift $400 billion from short-term Treasuries into long-term Treasuries in an effort to boost lending and spur the economy. While Operation Twist was exactly what investors had been anticipating, meeting expectations with the bare minimum came up short of pleasing them. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 284 points, or 2.5%, with all but one of the blue-chip index's 30 components closing in the red. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) was the only Dow component that traded higher, spiking almost 7% amid rumors that HP's board is considering a shakeup that would include replacing current CEO Leo Apotheker.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 35 points, or nearly 3%. Even the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite (COMP), which had been trading higher most of the day, closed down with a drop of 52 points, or 2%. "Operation Twist was priced into the market, and investors needed a twist on the twist -- something more," said Doug Roberts chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research. While the Fed said it will also reinvest the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into more mortgage-backed securities, Roberts said that additional step is still lacking. What would help satisfy financial markets is if the Fed were to bite the bullet and pump more money into the economy with another round of Treasury buying, or QE3, he added.

But experts said the Fed, which is running out of policy tools, will probably hold back from expanding its balance sheet unless investors and consumers grow warier. "By not mentioning QE3, it definitely appears that the central bank is saving their few remaining bullets in case the volatility in financial markets intensified or the U.S. economy falls into recession," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading. Mounting concerns about the economy kept pressure on transportation stocks Wednesday, as investors feared that truckers and shippers may suffer a slowdown in business along with the slowing economy.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT), a collection of 20 truckers, shippers, railroads and airlines, tumbled 5.3%, with railroad giants GATX, CSX Corp. and Norfolk Southern leading the decline. Meanwhile, investors quickly moved into U.S. Treasuries, sending the 10-year Treasury yield to a fresh record low around 1.858%. Aside from the Fed, investors remained on edge over the developing situation in debt-stricken Greece. Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek finance minister, told Parliament that more budget cuts would be needed in order for the country to get back on track.

MORE

See also:

Operation Twist: Investors want the unexpected
September 21, 2011: Investors may be expecting Operation Twist, but what they really want: a surprise grand gesture to woo them back into stock market.
For weeks now, investors have been anticipating that the Federal Reserve will announce Operation Twist -- a plan to sell short-term notes and buy long-term Treasuries -- at the close of its two-day meeting Wednesday afternoon. Twist refers to the attempt to twist down long-term rates, and get some lending going. But with the U.S. economy sill struggling, investors are hoping for the unexpected. And talk has turned to the possibility of another round of quantitative easing, a bond-buying program that the Fed has already used twice (QE and QE2) in an effort to spur lending. "The market right now appears to be anticipating a move so investors will buy the rumor sell the fact," said Thomas Sowanick, chief investment officer at Omnivest Group.

That means, if the Fed announces more than Twist, investors will race into the stock market. If the Fed just announces Twist, investors will walk out the door and at least remain wary of risk-taking. Should the Fed do nothing or something seen as having even less of an impact, such as lowering the overnight rate paid by banks to deposit money at the Federal Reserve, the market could be in for a sharp sell-off before Wednesday's close. "My concern is that the Fed has done all they can do at this point," said Joseph Tanious, market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds. "What's Twist really going to do for the markets and economy?" Indeed, one problem with formally announcing Twist: it quickly exposes the impotence of monetary policy in a global economy that's in turmoil.

Interest rates on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit an all-time low of 1.87% last week, and have barely budged over 2% for the entire month. That's worse than the height of the financial crisis, when the 10-year yield hit a low of 2.08% in December 2008. Ahead of the two-day meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been aggressive about putting the ball in Congress' court during public speeches. Still, even if it's not much, investors want assurances that the Federal Reserve will do something. "Fed can't be seen to do nothing," said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. Twist -- the middle ground of monetary policy -- will be the likely outcome.

The Federal Reserve is also expected to outline what types of bonds it will purchase. Investors aren't entirely sure whether the Federal Reserve will buy 10-year or 30-year Treasuries or a mix of both. Bond prices have moved down on 10- and 30-year Treasuries. So if the Federal Reserve concentrates its buying in say 10-year Treasuries, bond prices on those notes would move up and yields would move down. 30-year Treasuries would move in the opposite direction, with yields rising on the longer-term bonds. While it may not be politically palatable, market observers still see another round of quantitative easing as a possibility either now or in the future if the economy remains stalled. "You can't take QE3 off the table," said Clemons.

Source
 

expat_panama

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...Investors may be expecting Operation Twist, but what they really want: a surprise grand gesture to woo them back into stock market...
They're still there. Sure, 2 or 3 % is a bit of a hit but we're still working upward.
3indexes.png

Now, if the major indexes plunge say, 5 or 10% tomorrow then we can say something's really happening...
 

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