Tom Paine 1949
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- Mar 15, 2020
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Not at all comparable. Truman acted very wisely and prudently in the 1948-49 Berlin airlift. Stalin technically respected the treaty agreements he had signed (which did not guarantee road access to Berlin). Given that the Russians only tested their atomic bombs from late 1949 -1951, Stalin was certainly right in not simply seizing Berlin, which he could have easily done. The U.S. and the USSR had been allies during the war. Stalin allowed the U.S. and Brits and French to enter and share in symbolically taking Berlin, but it was the Red Army that did the fighting. The U.S. had already demobilized by 1948. Berlin was still a wreck from the war, mainly a symbol. Of course Stalin lost this important “propaganda battle.”If the Red Army marched into West Berlin any time in the 1950s after the USSR had the bomb, there was nothing we could have done. Also, only after the West German economy became much superior to East Germany, when the East Germans really seriously wanted to reunite, when Russia allowed it to do so under Gorbachev, was that reuniting possible. Of course if mainland Chinese are in the midst of a revolution to overthrow the CCP, the situation might be very different. As is, there is little or nothing we can realistically do if mainland China in five or ten years decides to squeeze Taiwan and force unification. China just dropped the word “peaceful” from its normal call for “peaceful reunification” across the straight of Taiwan. This is perhaps the first sign that the U.S.-China Cold War may bring sudden disaster to the people of Taiwan.West Berlin was inside Communist East Germany, yet we thought it was worth preserving...destroying communism is always in our interests...
As for economic strength, the Soviet Union economy never surpassed perhaps 30% of the U.S. economy. China is already our equal. Its naval and air forces will soon be MUCH stronger than the U.S. in the East China (and South China) Sea.
The Soviets knew had they moved into West Berlin, a trip wire would have been crossed resulting in massive retaliation. That tactic worked there, it’s worked in Korea, & would work against China. To combat the Chinese in the South China Sea region, we need to hold over their head the idea of the US recognizing Taiwan as an independent state. That’s the key to fighting the leeches that are communist states. You have to be willing to play ante up. China is increasingly being seen as a pariah especially after they allowed this virus to spread through their incompetence, corruption, & stupidity. We will need to go back to a Cold War footing to rid the world of communism.
The Chinese, however, would today be willing to pay any “propaganda” price and seize Taiwan by force if Taiwan (or Hong Kong) was stupid enough to proclaim independence and it appeared that U.S. ships and planes would back them up by landing or anchoring close to the Chinese mainland. That would be a disastrous American military adventure likely to escalate to nuclear war. The U.S. could not “win” such a fight, but might be willing to lose Taiwan as part of a mad campaign to isolate and quarantine China. I personally don’t believe the U.S., under Pompeo and Trump, are likely to purposefully take matters that far. However, China’s leadership could move on Taiwan earlier than expected if it feels it is being “decoupled,” sanctioned and humiliated by the West.
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