AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

[KMAN]

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


Liberals just sh!t their pants.... Can you imagine the riots that are going to ensue from the people who preach tolerance if Obama loses?

 

[Larkinn]

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


Liberals just sh!t their pants.... Can you imagine the riots that are going to ensue from the people who preach tolerance if Obama loses?

Haha, good luck with that. Wonder why you didn't post any of the other many polls showing Obama kicking McCain's ass?

 

[DavidS]

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

I would like to issue a challenge to those pollsters like Franklin & Marshall and GfK which in spite of all the facts above, are showing a substantial shift toward the Republicans when they apply their likely voter models. E-mail me -- my contact information is at the top of the page -- and tell me why you think what you're doing is good science.

Isn't it interesting how you can download a PDF of the questionaire, look at how many people responded, look at the results among people, etc. in every single other poll but you can't do that in this poll?

I call BS on this poll.

Also, about the Battleground/GWU poll, look at the time period it takes for them to poll people vs. every single other poll:

10/15 - 10/21. So their poll reflects Republicans' feelings about how McCain did after the debate last week, which got some Republicans energized. Many polls last week reflected this.

However, their enthusiasm has worn off.

FOX News did their poll 10/20 - 10/21 - Obama +9
Rasmussen - 10/19 - 10/21 - Obama +6
Zogby - 10/19 - 10/21 - Obama +10
Gallup - 10/19 - 10/21

etc.

So, by the end of this week, I expect the numbers to go up on the GWU poll, while I expect other polls that are showing double digit leads to moderate some.

This should be a 6 point race as John McCain has said all along.

 

[sealybobo]

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


Liberals just sh!t their pants.... Can you imagine the riots that are going to ensue from the people who preach tolerance if Obama loses?

You better believe it.

I love republicans who don't see anything fishy about the millions of new voters showing up for Obama and you can't find any McCain supporters anywhere.

Yes, you should be worried if you try to steal this one, MY FRIEND.

 

[sealybobo]

As if we are supposed to tolerate a 3rd stolen election.

 

[The Paperboy]

Haha, good luck with that. Wonder why you didn't post any of the other many polls showing Obama kicking McCain's ass?

Such as:

Gallup (Traditional) Obama +5
Hotline/FD Obama +5
IBD/TIPP Obama +4
GWU/Battleground Obama +2
Ipsos/McClatchy Obama +3.5
CNN/Opinion Research Obama +5

 

[The Paperboy]

As if we are supposed to tolerate a 3rd stolen election.

 

[The Paperboy]

You better believe it.

I love republicans who don't see anything fishy about the millions of new voters showing up for Obama and you can't find any McCain supporters anywhere.

Yes, you should be worried if you try to steal this one, MY FRIEND.

Please provide a ink or other evidence of the "millions of new voters showing up for Obama".

 

[elvis]

AP poll: Candidates running nearly even - Decision '08 - MSNBC.com

 

[Larkinn]

AP poll: Candidates running nearly even - Decision '08 - MSNBC.com

Because of one poll? Thats optimistic, if incredibly naive.

 

[elvis]

Because of one poll? Thats optimistic, if incredibly naive.

naive? no. optimistic? yes.

 

[DavidS]

naive? no. optimistic? yes.

The race is not on. It's a completely fraudulant poll.

Here's why:

Go to:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

It doesn't define who's likely to vote. So I don't know what their definition of "Likely voters" means.

Looking at total respondants, Obama has a 10 point lead in this poll. Looking at "likely voters" Obama has a 1 point lead.

Here's also something I don't like: Their sampling of Republicans and Democrats are very even. There's almost no independents in this poll. So it sounds about right. The Republicans vote for the Republicans, the Democrats vote for the Democrats.

This isn't a good poll. I would throw it out.

 

[elvis]

The race is not on. It's a completely fraudulant poll.

Here's why:

Go to:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

It doesn't define who's likely to vote. So I don't know what their definition of "Likely voters" means.

Looking at total respondants, Obama has a 10 point lead in this poll. Looking at "likely voters" Obama has a 1 point lead.

Here's also something I don't like: Their sampling of Republicans and Democrats are very even. There's almost no independents in this poll. So it sounds about right. The Republicans vote for the Republicans, the Democrats vote for the Democrats.

This isn't a good poll. I would throw it out.

people who know polls know what "likely voters" means.

 

[DavidS]

people who know polls know what "likely voters" means.

Yeah, and they put on the poll: "How likely are you to vote this election?"

That wasn't on there.

 

[Mad Scientist]

The people who make these polls will show the race as a dead heat on the eve of the election. If the final result isn't close to their "guesses" then their reputation as a polster suffers. There's no reason to believe this election won't be a nail biter like the last two.

 

[DavidS]

The people who make these polls will show the race as a dead heat on the eve of the election. If the final result isn't close to their "guesses" then their reputation as a polster suffers. There's no reason to believe this election won't be a nail biter like the last two.

Uh, sure there is. People hate Palin, people hate Republicans, people are tired of McCain's attack ads.

This is going be ugly.

 

[Chris]

Electoral college based on multiple polls....

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

 

[elvis]

Uh, sure there is. People hate Palin, people hate Republicans, people are tired of McCain's attack ads.

This is going be ugly.

people hate Obama, too.

 

[elvis]

Electoral college based on multiple polls....

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

yeah, that map has most of the swing states in a statistical tie. colorado and virginia have obama ahead by five and seven respectively. this isn't over.

 

[Chris]

yeah, that map has most of the swing states in a statistical tie. colorado and virginia have obama ahead by five and seven respectively. this isn't over.

Obama has a huge lead.

Obama has twice as much money and twice as many boots on the ground as McCain.

Plus the governors of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado are all Democrats.

It's over.