I can't know the future, and neither can anybody else. It sure looks likely that Trump has 2020 locked down though, but I could be wrong. Does anybody believe Trump will lose 2020?
"Locked down"
I hardly think it's locked down for either side. I honestly don't understand why so many conservatives around here insist on taking a victory lap before the election. Spare me your "I know Trump is gonna win because Democrats are so dum LOL" responses.
Look at how close the last election was. Trump won Michigan by 0.23%, Wisconsin by 0.77%, and Pennsylvania by 0.72%. Three states with a history of going blue for the last several elections, but barely swung red in 2016 and ultimately decided the outcome of the election. Consider the James Comey investigation on Hillary Clinton just prior to the last election which also likely impacted those numbers.
I'm just bringing this up to describe the obvious truth that we don't know. Anyone who claims otherwise is just a mindless cheerleader idiot as far as I'm concerned.
With that said, my honest prediction is that I think this is going to be very close. At this point, I'll give a slight edge to the Democrats but a lot can happen between now and November. Here are some of my thoughts:
- I think Trump's approval is growing now that the impeachment thing is behind him.
- I think the strong economy is the single best thing he can bank on.
- I think the Democrat nominee, whoever it is, will be better than what we had last time.
- Democrat vote totals in the last two presidential elections have declined, but I expect the vote total to increase this time because of how much they hate Trump.
- Democrats saw a 70% vote increase in the House for the 2018 election, which FAR surpasses any midterm election increase they've had in at least the last several decades. Again, I think this was because of how much they hate Trump.
- In 2018, we also saw a surge in Republican votes with a 27% vote increase in the House. Not nearly as much as the increase for the Democrats, but still a very big gain.
- I think both sides will be fired up to show up at the polls. Trump is a very polarizing figure and we all know how divided the country is.
- I think it will come down to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. All three of those traditionally blue states, which Trump won by less than 1%, swung back to the Democrats in 2018 by at least 8% last time I checked the numbers.
With all that in mind, I give the Democrats a slight edge at this point. But there are plenty of things they can mess up between now and then. Meanwhile Trump's support isn't declining either.
My $0.02.